Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
000
FXUS63 KEAX 102120
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
420 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated high based light rain showers for southern/eastern
portions of our region this evening into Thursday afternoon
- Wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph Thursday across the region;
potential elevated fire weather concerns for eastern Kansas/far
western Missouri
- Above normal temperatures expected throughout the weekend with
breezy conditions on Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Weak isentropic ascent is causing the formation of scattered, high-
based showers currently in central Missouri. Because of significant
dry air below the cloud base, any accumulation will be limited.
Additionally, there is a low pressure system centered over northern
Louisiana. The positioning of this low is keeping our winds out of
the northeast. As the low continues to push northeast, the showers
will move to the eastern Missouri overnight into Thursday. With
increased mid to upper level moisture, expect a few more clouds
across the region. As cooler, drier air pours in from the north,
winds will begin to increase overnight. Low temperatures are
forecasted to stay around high 40s to low 50s.
Moving into Thursday afternoon, the low pressure system will
continue to push northeast. Winds are expected to become gusty
Thursday morning shortly after sunrise as stronger momentum aloft
mixing towards the surface resulting in wind gusts of 30-35 mph.
These breezy conditions in combination with afternoon relative
humidity values ranging from the mid to high 20s across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri could create elevated fire weather
conditions; however, the recent green up across the region will
limit the influence of these conditions. Going into Thursday night,
strong ridging across the western US will build in behind the low
pressure system clearing out skies. Winds will shift to the west and
begin to advect warmer air. This will begin the warming trend
expected for this weekend. High temperatures for Friday are
anticipated to reach the upper 60s into the lower 70s. As the high
pressure steadily moves to the east area, skies will remain clear
allowing for plenty of insolation during max heating on Saturday.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower 80s (still
nearly 10 degrees shy of record highs). There is also a low pressure
system that comes off the leeside of the Rockies into the western
Dakotas strengthening the pressure gradient across the Central
US. This will cause winds to gust as high as 30-35 mph.
Southerly winds will continue and intensify the warming trend.
High temperatures for Sunday are expected to reach the mid to
upper 80s.
At the start of next week, high temperatures will remain in the 80s
and low temperatures will remain in the 60s until mid next week.
Guidance shows the next significant trough building into the western
US late this weekend- moving into the central US early next week.
There may be a chance for some thunderstorms with this system,
especially later on Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Isolated to scattered showers are possible across central
Missouri this afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions prevailing
with high clouds and light northeast winds. Tonight, after 06Z,
cold front will move through the region with increasing winds
out of the northwest following behind the front. Could see winds
gust shortly after sunrise, with scattered cumulus developing
throughout the daylight hours on Thursday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Hayes/BT