Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 110545
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

Focus remains on the winter weather we are experiencing this weekend,
but there is an expectation of warmer weather this coming work week.

Big picture across the Nation has not changed much in the past 24
hours, as a broad trough is still in place across the country with a
notable shortwave trough swinging across the Great Basin on its
way through the Desert Southwest. This shortwave trough will help
bring the secondary surge of cold air across the Central Plains
this afternoon and this evening, resulting in widespread snow
across parts of eastern Kansas and the northern half of Missouri.

However, looking at the rest of the afternoon hours, satellite and
radar imagery show a bit of a surge of moisture working its way
north through southern Missouri. This has resulted in precipitation
across southern Missouri spreading back to the north a bit quicker
than originally thought for the daylight hours today. As a
result, moved up the onset time for the segment of the winter
advisory for tonight that covered areas from west central to
central Missouri. That said, reports from surface observations
show that freezing drizzle may still be the dominate precipitation
type this afternoon across southern and central Missouri even
when mixed with snow. However, precipitation totals have been low
enough that glaze of icing with a dusting of snow is all that has
been noted thus far.

For tonight...expectations remain that snow will move in and provide
anywhere from a dusting to an inch (east central Kansas) to 2 to 3
inches (along the Iowa border) of snow tonight. The quick return of
mixed precipitation to parts of central Missouri will have little
effect on the going icing and snow fall totals as the quicker onset
will likely come with a quick ending early Sunday morning. However,
will keep the going winter weather advisories through mid-Sunday
morning as confidence on when the snow will end is too low to
warrant adjusting the going advisories.

Sunday on into the work week...will see improving conditions. A
secondary shortwave trough will follow this evenings trough, but
this secondary trough will pinch off across southern California
during the early work week. This will help induce a bit of
downstream ridging across our section of the Plains States, helping
lift afternoon highs above freezing for everyone here in eastern
Kansas and Missouri by Wednesday. Next chance at precipitation does
not look to arrive till the end of the work week or next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

Lgt fzdz will cont at the TAF sites thru 07Z-09Z with the
exception of STJ where snow should begin around 07Z and cont thru
10Z. Byd that, the forecast should remain dry however, have
maintained VCSH as a second band of lgt snow could prolong pcpn
chances. Otrw...expect cigs/vis to remain MVFR thru around 13Z
before finally lifting back to VFR. Skies should finally clr this
afternoon. Northerly winds will back to the NW overnight while
remaining btn 5-10kts. NW winds are then expected to prevail thru
the day before high pressure moves into the region during the
evening and winds become lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for KSZ025-102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020-022>025-030>033-038>040-044>046-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for MOZ021-028-029-
     037-043-053.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73



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