Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 212106
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
306 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Will remove southwest counties from freezing rain advisory this
evening from Springfield sw as temperatures currently in the upper
30s do not appear to drop to freezing this evening per latest
forecast models. Frost depth is around 2 inches in our sw counties but
some thawing of ground surface this afternoon with temps in the mid
to upper 30s with ample sunshine so far today. 1035 mb Canadian high
pressure near the OH/WV border will drift off to the mid Atlantic
states by midnight tonight while a weak short wave ejects ne from
the central Plains into IA and central/northern IL. Clouds over MO
and spreading ne into sw parts of IA/IL early this afternoon to
spread ne across central/se IL rest of the afternoon. Patches of
light precipitation developing during the evening over central IL,
reaching areas from I-74 ne after 9 pm. Areas from Springfield sw
and in southeast IL to stay above freezing tonight to support just
rain. Areas ne of Springfield to drop to near or just below freezing
for a time this evening before temps rise overnight and reach back
into the mid to upper 30s by dawn Sat. Deeper frost depth of 4-6
inches from Lincoln ne so freezing rain more likely but ice
accumulations still less than a tenth inch, but could cause some
travel difficulties. Thus will continue the freezing rain advisory
northern half of CWA this evening and continue from I-74 ne until 4
am.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as southwesterly flow
continues over the area through the weekend. Models look similar on
timing of the pcpn, but differ on location of some of the heaviest
pcpn amounts. However, Sunday will be the period with the highest
pops and qpf values, given this will be just ahead of the cold front
that will move through the area Sunday night. The mid level trough
will not move through the area until Monday through Monday night, so
pcpn chances will decrease from likely on Sun night to small chances
by Monday afternoon. The colder air will lag behind the cold front
and move through the area Monday during the day. Therefore, will
have falling temps Sunday night, then steady temps Monday morning,
and then falling temps Monday afternoon through Mon night.

Temps over the weekend will be above normal with warmest temps being
in the 50s and Sat night temps in the 40s.

Northwest flow will dominate the pattern early next week after the
weekend system. This will bring the cold temps back into the region
for the week. There will be a clipper-type system drop through the
area mid week with the chance of snow and then the return to colder
temps for the last part of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening across the central
IL airports expected to deteriorate during mid/late evening as
a period of light freezing rain spreads ne across central IL.
MVFR ceilings 1-3k ft and possibly vsbys as low as 4-6 miles to
develop toward late evening and continue into Sat morning. Just
about a 4 hour period of light freezing rain/drizzle before temps
warm above freezing to change to light rain/drizzle overnight.
Added LLWS overnight into Sat morning with 2k ft sw winds of 45-55
kts. SE surface winds 10-14 kts this afternoon to veer south by
overnight and increase to near 15 kts by 15Z/Sat.

1035 mb Canadian high pressure over southern Ohio will drift east
into the mid Atlantic states by midnight, will increase WAA and
isentropic lift pattern developing over IL tonight. Weak short
wave to eject northeast from the central Plains into IA and
central/northern IL by mid evening spreading in patches of light
freezing rain/drizzle and changing to light rain/drizzle toward
overnight. Broken to overcast MVRF clouds over MO sw of St Louis
will spread ne across central IL by early evening and could get to
SPI by 00Z. Mixed light precipitation to follow a few hours later
with MVFR clouds and chances of light rain rain/drizzle lingering
overnight and Sat morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM CST
Saturday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-045.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY until 1 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ036-
040>044-048-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...07






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