Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 120943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017
For the most part, not a lot of changes in this run. Northwesterly
flow continues, bringing a series of shortwaves into the Midwest.
The better chances for precipitation remain to the north and
central Illinois gets some slight chances and flurries/sprinkles
at best for most of the forecast. Cooler air moving into the
region right now going to keep much of the area below freezing
today. Teens and 20s filtering into central IL this morning will
throw the diurnal trend off a bit, with some areas, particularly
in the southern half of ILX forecast area, hitting their max temps
for the day this morning. Not a lot of variation in the temps
throughout the day. Blustery conditions this morning may ease a
bit later, but winds to 15-20 mph will keep the wind chills in
the single digits and low teens this morning... teens and low 20s
this afternoon. Tonights lows will be in the teens and lower
20s...with winds easing a bit.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017
Next waves comes through the region on Wednesday and Friday, with
deeper cold air moving into place Wednesday night through Friday.
Wednesday will be slightly warmer than today until the reinforcing
shot of cold air moves in. Front will bring slight chances for the
northeast in the form of rain in the afternoon, ending quickly.
Forecast gets another shot of cold air to wrap up the week, and a
weak chance for precip again on Friday. Major systems not really
in the model forecasts for Central IL. A bit of a pattern shift in
the wake of Friday, with flow becoming almost zonal aloft as temps
are allowed to warm a few degrees. A larger wave dives into the
western half of the CONUS Friday, and at this point, the models
diverge in the progression. Models vary between cutting off the
system to the SW...and moving it through as an open wave. For now
the forecast over the weekend is relatively mild temperature
wise...and slight chances for precip on Sunday. However,
confidence is low in the behavior of that wave after the pattern
shift, as ensembles diverge quite a bit.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR cigs below 2kft will quickly lift to above 2kft over the next
several hours at all sites, though PIA is already above 2kft.
Based on satellite loops, back edge and scattering of clouds will
also occur in next 2-4hrs at all sites. Then skies will become
clear for rest of the overnight and through tomorrow. Winds will
remain very gusty with gusts of around 30kts at all
sites...overnight and through tomorrow, though some weakening of
the gradient is expected tomorrow late morning. By late afternoon
winds will diminish, but then there will be a lose of gusts after




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