Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 101718
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 957 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

High pressure centered over lower Michigan late this morning,
extending southwest across the forecast area. Have had some
altocumulus clouds forming from about Peoria northward, but most
areas still clear. Cirrus shield from MCS over Oklahoma and
southwest Missouri looks to stay just to our southwest, and Cu-
Rule not showing much more than scattered diurnal development.
Temperatures generally on track and only required some minor
adjustments.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Diurnal cumulus development is a bit less than yesterday, but
scattered clouds around 5000 feet or so expected for a few hours
this afternoon. Skies should mainly be clear again tonight, before
mid and high clouds begin to approach from the northwest late
tonight in association with a decaying storm system. Easterly
winds prevailing for the first half of the forecast period due to
an area of high pressure over lower Michigan, but this will trend
southeast or south Friday morning as a storm system develops over
the central Plains.

Geelhart

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night

Another pleasant summer day ahead for central and southeast IL
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s with
a few upper 70s NE areas. Comfortable dew points of 55-60F with
light winds. 1020 mb high pressure over Lake MI and ridging across
IL will provide another delightful day as it slowly shifts east
across lower MI and still ridging back into IL. Fair skies tonight
with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s with coolest readings in
east central IL.

As high pressure drifts into the eastern Great Lakes and New
England Friday southerly flow will start to bring in warmer and
more humid air especially by Sat/Sun. Upper level ridge over the
Rockies builds east into the MS river valley late this week with
center of ridge SW of IL over OK and 4 corners. Short wave with
associated MCS to move from IA into central/northwest IL Friday
and bring chance of showers and thunderstorms especially NW of IL
river while eastern/SE IL should stay dry Friday with increasing
clouds. Highs 80-85F Friday with warmest readings in southeast IL
where more sunshine expected. Dew points in the low to mid 60s Fri
and highest in western areas where upper 60s appear by Friday
afternoon.

Another MCS to move east out of IA across northern IL and models
differ on how far showers and thunderstorms get into central and
southeast IL. NAM models keep qpf north of Lincoln while 00Z ECMWF
model trending further north with qpf as well. Have likely pops
from Peoria north while small chances in southeast IL of 20-30%
where upper level ridge is stronger with its cap. Tropical heat
and humidity return to IL this weekend with dew points in the low
to mid 70s and highs mid 80s to near 90F with southeast IL the
warmest. MCS from Friday night leaves outflow boundary over
central IL Sat while will redevelop convection Sat afternoon
especially over NE areas. Models bring a frontal boundary SE
across northern IL and toward central IL by Sunday morning. This
to bring more chances of showers and thunderstorms and SPC has
slight risk of severe storms north of I-70 Sat night. This front
to weaken into southeast IL during Sunday and continue a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in warm/humid air mass.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Extended models continue to show a strong cutoff upper level low
digging southward from central Canada into the Great Lakes early
next work week. This to drive a stronger cold front south through
central IL Monday afternoon/evening bringing another good chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Still quite warm and humid Monday
with highs lower 80s NW of IL river and upper 80s in southeast IL.
Cooler and drier air to push south into IL for middle of next week
with highs in the 70s Tue-Thu. Best chances of showers and
thunderstorms shift south of IL with frontal boundary but can not
rule out isolated light showers Tue afternoon with strong upper
level low/trof near IL.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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