Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 292324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Latest radar mosaics showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
from near Rockford southeast into central Indiana, along a weak
convergence boundary. HRRR suggests some of this may clip the far
northeast CWA later this afternoon, where 20% PoP`s remain in
place. Am planning on leaving the evening dry, as any lingering
showers will quickly be fizzling as sunset approaches.

Upper air analysis continues to show strong ridging west of the
Rockies northward into Canada, with the eastern states and
provinces dominated by a broad long wave trough anchored via an
upper low spinning north of the Great Lakes. The long range
pattern does not change during the forecast period, except that
the upper low opens up some and starts to lift northeast. Some
hints exist that it may return early next week, but the associated
cooler surge looks to stay north of Illinois at this point.

Little change in the going forecast is needed. Temperatures are
expected to rise a couple degrees, with lower 80s for highs and
upper 50s-lower 60s for lows from Wednesday through the weekend,
and slightly warmer early next week. Precipitation chances remain
focused on Friday and Saturday, mainly diurnally driven, as weak
shortwaves pivot through in the broader upper troughs.



ISSUED 624 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Skies will quickly clear this evening and winds will become light
out of the west. These VFR conditions will continue at all TAF
sites next 24hrs. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms was
dropping south through northeast IL late this afternoon. This
could reach areas north of Champaign, but looks like it is moving
slightly east of south and should miss the TAF site this evening.
Will not have any pcpn mentioned at CMI but will continue to
monitor trends and see if VCSH is needed at some point. Pcpn
should also be dissipating as it moves south. Winds tomorrow will
be westerly at around 10kts with scattered CU around 5kft.




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