Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 302353
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Weak cold front is slowly approaching Central Illinois, with
slightly cooler and drier air behind it.  However, the boundary will
continue its slow approach, not expecting the drier air until
tomorrow evening. Instead, the warm and muggy airmass that is in
place today will remain through the overnight, bringing the chances
for periodic showers and patchy fog.  Models are having a hard time
dealing with the current convection, and is overly done.  Reduction
in the overnight pops as a result overall...keeping the mention more
scattered than not.  Much of the lift provided for any overnight
showers will be in the form of mesoscale outflows or small waves
within the SWrly plume of moisture streaming into the Plains and the
Midwest along and ahead of the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Models agree on a substantial cold front pushing southward
through the area Wednesday, reaching at least I-70 by Thursday
evening. Keeping a slight chance of thunderstorms to the south of I-
70 as a result of frontal timing, but conditions should be all dry
across the forecast area by 9 p.m. with dewpoints falling into the
50s overnight, down from the humid 70s prior to the frontal passage.

Thursday through the weekend...dry conditions can be expected as the
cool and dry air mass slowly moderates through the period and strong
high pressure to around 1026 mb develops over the Great Lakes
Region. Expect highs in the upper 70s Thursday and Friday gradually
rising to the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. Dewpoints should be in
the 50s to lower 60s through Saturday, increasing to around 70 by
Monday.

As troughing slowly works its way eastward into the central U.S.
and a cold frontal zone with several disturbances tracking along it
develops in the Plains...chances for precipitation look to start
again northwest of the Illinois River on Labor Day Monday...spreading
throughout central IL by Tuesday.

A tropical depression with 35 mph winds 300 miles west of Key West
FL is projected to slowly turn northeastward toward Florida over the
next day...strengthening to a tropical storm. This tropical system
should keep its rainfall well southeast of IL. But if traveling to
Florida or the southeast Atlantic coastal region, monitor later
forecasts and statements from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois
terminals. Spotty storms are possible the next few hours, but
expected coverage is too low to carry at this time. Then, patchy
MVFR fog is possible later tonight into early Wednesday morning.
An additional storm or two can`t be ruled out during peak heating
Wednesday, but expected coverage is once again too low to carry at
this time.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Bak



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