Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 181729
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014
High pressure ridge axis stretching from Hudson Bay down into the
Mid Mississippi River Valley this morning. A northerly component
to the relatively light winds over the region. Plenty of sunshine
and a steady warm up for the region as well. Weather quiet for
now...and no updates are anticipated at this time. Have updated
the grids for hourly trends and made a few adjustments to the high
temperatures in the southeast, but nothing that would warrant an
update to the zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014
High pressure ridge keeping VFR through the pd. Some cu indicated
...but may not have enough moisture to work with for much in the
way of cloud cover. Keeping the cu in CMI and DEC to the south
and east closer to the cu rule max value axis for this afternoon. Other than
that...light winds with a northerly component becoming more
easterly after sunset...and more southeasterly tomorrow morning.

HJS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 301 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday

Short-wave trough tracking through the Mississippi River Valley
will give a weak frontal boundary currently along the I-70 corridor
a shove eastward this morning. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of
the wave will cause skies to clear from west to east, with mostly
sunny skies expected across the board by midday. Forecast
soundings indicate mixing up to about 850mb, which will result in
afternoon highs mainly in the middle 60s, with upper 60s across
the southeast KILX CWA.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes later today, then
will remain in place through the weekend. Dry airmass beneath the
ridge coupled with light E/NE flow will lead to warm days and cool
nights over the next couple of days. Have undercut MAV guidance by
a few degrees tonight, with lows dipping into the middle to upper
30s in most locations. Highs on Saturday will remain on the cooler
side of guidance as well thanks to the continued easterly
component to the wind, with highs climbing into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Once high pressure ridge begins to shift further east,
an increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air into the region
on Easter Sunday, helping push temps well into the 70s.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday

Next system of interest is still slated to approach the region
Sunday night, with most 00z Apr 18 model data keeping the precip
west of Illinois until Monday. As a result of the continued
slowing trend, will only feature slight chance POPs after midnight
across the western CWA. Rain chances will increase on Monday as
wave arrives and atmosphere moistens. Given decent upper support,
adequate moisture with surface dewpoints well into the 50s, and
lifted index values dropping to between 0 and -3C, will continue
to mention isolated thunder Monday and Monday evening.
GFS/GEM/ECMWF all track upper wave well east into the Ohio River
Valley by 12z Tuesday, so am expecting slightly cooler/drier
weather for both Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching warm front
will trigger convection across Iowa into northern Illinois
late Wednesday: however, think this will remain north of the CWA.
Next rain chance will arrive on Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Still some timing discrepancies among
the operational models, but consensus points to showers/thunder
Thursday into Thursday night.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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