Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 282305
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period (00z Thu).
Some low VFR cigs skirting just to our north early this evening
with some broken to overcast cirrus moving northeast into parts
of central Illinois. Latest HRRR forecast indicates the stratocu
deck to our north will gradually thin out and dissipate later
this evening to our north while the high level clouds will shift
off to our east late tonight as an upper level trof shifts across
the forecast area. Forecast soundings showing some scattered cumulus
developing by late morning with bases around 3500-4500 feet. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and west to northwest
at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith




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