Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1234 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Issued at 1101 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure dominates the weather across central Illinois this
morning...resulting in sunny skies and current temps in the middle
to upper 50s. Based on rate of temp rise so far this morning, have
adjusted afternoon highs up by 1-2 degrees...with readings topping
out in the lower to middle 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Quiet and much cooler weather conditions expected across central
and southeast Illinois through the period. A cold front cleared the
area Sunday evening, and an area of high pressure of Canadian origin
is taking its place. The much drier & cooler airmass associated with
the high will see much closer to normal highs in the 60s today and
lows around 40 degrees tonight. Winds will also be much lighter as

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Dry conditions should continue on Tuesday across central and
southeast IL as mid/high clouds increase over areas north of I-70 as
skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny skies will
prevail over southeast IL along and south of I-70. Highs mostly in
the lower 60s Tuesday with coolest readings around 60F from I-74

A mid level short wave will eject eastward from the central Rockies
into central/northern IL by sunset Wed. Models have trended further
south with this low pressure track that was over southern WI with
earlier model runs. Surface low pressure near 1010 mb will track
eastward over northern IL Wed afternoon and into northern IN Wed
evening. Have chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
spreading over the IL river valley by overnight Tue night with
showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms over much of central IL
by Wed afternoon, with lower pops southeast of I-70.

Good chance of showers over eastern IL Wed evening as cold front
moves east through that area while 20-30% pops in western CWA. Just
have 20-30% pops of showers from I-57 east overnight Wed night as
best chances of convection shift east into IN. Rainfall amounts from
this weather system appear to average a quarter to half inch from I-
55 nw to one to two tenths of an inch over southeast IL. Highs Wed
range from near 60F from I-74 north to the upper 60s south of I-70.

Dry conditions expected Thu with partly to mostly sunny skies as
1023 mb high pressure settles into IL late Thu. Cooler highs Thu in
the lower 60s, with upper 50s from I-74 north. Dry conditions prevail
Thu night into Friday morning with lows Thu night of 43-48F.

A northern stream short wave expected to track into the Great Lakes
region late Fri into Saturday morning and to bring next chances of
showers from Friday afternoon and Friday night, then dry again on
Saturday. Temps warm ahead of this system on Friday with highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Models diverge with handling features
during this weekend as ECMWF has another chance of showers on
Sunday while GFS is dry. Temps to cool down a bit for the weekend
but still be near or a bit above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Winds will initially be from the NE at 5-10kt this
afternoon...then will back to the E tonight...then to the SE by
Tuesday morning. Skies will be clear through this afternoon,
followed by an increase in high/thin cloudiness tonight into


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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