Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240920
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

08z/2am surface analysis shows 995mb low over northeast
Missouri, with warm front extending from near Quincy to just south
of Kankakee.  This places all but the far NW KILX CWA within the
warm sector of the system as is evidenced by widespread temperatures
in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  Locations from Peoria northward are
north of the warm front and are therefore still hovering in the
lower to middle 40s.  The low is projected to track slowly N/NE
today...reaching north-central Illinois by 18z...then southwest
Michigan by 00z.  The timing of the low and its associated trailing
cold front is right on target from previous forecasts, so the main
short-term challenge remains timing of convective initialization
along/ahead of the boundary.  Aside from a stray shower or
thunderstorm this morning, it appears the most widespread
precipitation will hold off until afternoon as the front pushes into
east-central Illinois.  Strong southerly winds gusting to 30-35mph
ahead of the front will push temperatures into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.  With dewpoints climbing well into the 50s, this will
result in MUCAPE values of around 1000J/kg.  As a strong mid-level
jet streak approaches from the west, 0-6km bulk shear will climb to
60-70kt this afternoon.  This marginally unstable/highly sheared
environment will be conducive to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms with potentially damaging wind gusts along and east of
the I-57 corridor between 1pm and 6pm.  There will also be a minimal
tornado risk as cells first begin to develop...but it appears the
higher probabilities for tornadoes will be focused further east
across Indiana.

Any storms that fire this afternoon will quickly push into Indiana
by early this evening, followed by windy and sharply colder
conditions.  Models continue to suggest the trailing upper wave will
trigger a period of light snow late tonight.  Based on track of
500mb wave, it appears the snow chances will remain north of the
I-70 corridor.  Due to the light nature of the precipitation and
the very warm ground conditions, am not expecting much in the way
of accumulation.  Some locations near the track of the upper
disturbance northwest of the Illinois River around Galesburg may
pick up as much as one half inch, but little to no accumulation is
expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Light snow will end across north-central Illinois Saturday morning
as the wave tracks into the Great Lakes.  It will be a brisk and
chilly day in its wake however, with high temperatures only in the
30s and wind-chill readings in the teens and 20s.  As high pressure
builds into the region, clearing skies and diminishing winds will
lead to cold lows in the lower to middle 20s Saturday night.

The return to winter-like conditions will be short-lived, as zonal
flow allows temperatures to quickly moderate early next week.  A
series of short-waves will also bring unsettled weather at times,
with the first wave arriving Sunday afternoon/evening.  Temperatures
during the day Sunday will climb into the middle to upper 40s, so
the precip Sunday afternoon will be in the form of light rain.  If
the precip lingers long enough into Sunday night, there may be a
brief change over to light snow as temperatures drop into the lower
to middle 30s...however no accumulation is expected.  A lull in the
precip chances will noted on Monday, as temperatures climb even
higher into the lower to middle 50s.

After that, a stronger short-wave trough crossing the Rockies will
lead to cyclogenesis across the Plains and the arrival of a more
significant frontal boundary by mid-week.  Timing differences still
exist between the ECMWF and GFS: however, it appears low pressure
will track N/NW of Illinois and the trailing front will pass late
Tuesday.  With unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, GFS is showing MUCAPE values of 400-600J/kg Tuesday
afternoon and evening, warranting a slight chance for thunder. Once
the front passes, a return to cooler readings in the 40s is
anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

VFR conditions, with spotty thunderstorm, are expected for much of
the remainder of the night across the central Illinois terminals.
CIGS should lower into the MVFR category late tonight or early
Friday as a strong cold front pushes into the area. This front
will be accompanied by scattered showers and storms, but these
will be the most numerous over the eastern portion of the state.
Winds will be gusty for much of the period once a warm front
pushes north of the area over the next few hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak


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