Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Cold front currently crossing the Mississippi River into west-
central Illinois will swing through the area late this afternoon
into the evening.  Extremely dry airmass ahead of the boundary will
ensure a dry and cloud-free FROPA.  Once the front passes, winds
will veer to the northwest tonight, then to the north-northeast on
Monday.  Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle
40s...while highs on Monday reach the lower to middle 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Canadian high pressure area will sit across the Great Lakes region
Monday night and Tuesday with dry and cooler weather. Out in the
western plains a system will be developing and have a warm front
that will extend toward the area. Models have sped up the onset of
precip in the CWA, so now will have a chance of showers in extreme
northwest part of Knox county. The chance of precip will move east a
little bit but still remain northwest of the Illinois river late
Tues night. The main threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The front will move east
through the area quickly and should be east of the state by Thursday
morning. Then dry weather will be seen Thursday through Friday. As
the pattern begins to change for late in the week and next weekend,
models begin to differ on the surface features, where two models
have a front sliding through the area, and another model has a front
north of the area. So, very different outcomes for late in the week.
For now, will stick with the blend of models and have a chance of
showers in the north and northeast parts of the CWA for Friday night
through Sat night.

Seasonable temps are to be expected through the forecast period,
though Friday will be the warmest. Overnight lows will still remain
in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A
cold front currently approaching the Mississippi River will swing
through central Illinois late this afternoon into the early
evening. Ahead of the front...SW winds will gust to between 20 and
25kt before veering to W/NW and decreasing to less than 10kt by
mid-evening. Light N/NE winds will prevail Monday morning as high
pressure builds into the region.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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