Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160532
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Lots of clear skies across the CWA currently and this will likely
continue into the overnight hours. But models continue to show
another short wave trough rotating around the upper level low in
the Great Lakes, into the area late tonight and through tomorrow.
Light snow/flurries will be possible with this next trough. Making
lots of changes to cloud cover to account for the current clear
skies and then will adjust some of the timing of the flurries as
well. Update will be coming shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A bitterly cold airmass has invaded central Illinois in the wake
of the clipper system that passed earlier today. 20z/3pm
temperatures have dropped into the single digits and teens across
the entire area...with wind-chills ranging from zero to 10 below
zero. While skies have partially cleared across all but the far SE
KILX CWA, additional clouds associated with a sharp trough over
the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest will pivot southward tonight. The
end result will be mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries from
time to time. The clouds will keep temps from dropping as low as
they otherwise would, with guidance suggesting lows around zero.
With brisk northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph expected to last all
night, wind-chill values will bottom out from 10 below to 20 below
zero. As a result, the Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect
for all of central and southeast Illinois tonight through Tuesday
morning. Clouds and flurries will hang around through the entire
day Tuesday, with afternoon highs only in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Its smooth sailing in the extended. After one more cold day on
Wednesday with high temperatures in the lower 20s, a marked
warming trend will get underway for the end of the week.
Temperatures will climb into the 30s on Thursday...then will soar
into the 50s by Saturday and Sunday. As has been advertised for
the past few days, the next storm system of note will not impact
the region until late in the weekend...resulting in rain chances
arriving by Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, if the GFS low
track across central Illinois verifies, would not be surprised to
see some isolated thunder introduced to the forecast Sunday/Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Clear skies are present at all TAF sites and should continue that
way through most of the overnight hours, based on satellite loops.
However, scattered lower clouds are lingering around the area in
the north and over in the east so will have scattered clouds at
all sites for overnight. Then a short wave trough will rotate into
the area from the north and clouds will thicken and light snow or
flurries are possible. Timing is of question and have gone with
early morning hours with PIA at 11z, BMI at 12z, SPI/DEC/CMI 1-2
hours later. Expecting the flurries/light snow to continue through
the day and not end until trough rotates out of the area during
afternoon. However, with how cold it is going to keep flurries
going til evening. Also keeping broken cigs going into the evening
hours. Winds will be westerly most of the period and then become
west to northwest during the evening hours. Winds will be 12-15kts
most of the period and then decrease to less than 10kts during the
evening. Expecting MVFR clouds through the period...less than 2kft
most of the time and then around 2.5kft after the light
snow/flurries end.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten



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