Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
609 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Deep upper level trough dominates the center of the country this
morning, while a surface low to the east continues to move out of
the region with weak ridging in its wake. An increasing pressure
gradient today will result in some northerly winds...getting
slightly stronger throughout the day to 10-12 mph by this
afternoon. Deep moisture still available under the upper low today
will result in another showery day...with chances increasing into
the afternoon. Cool temperatures will prevail with the northerly
winds and ample cloud cover...and overnight lows will be limited
to the lower 50s/upper 40s as the clouds slowly recede later
Thursday morning. &&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017
Skies clearing early Thursday will result in a little warmer
temperatures for Central IL...even with northwesterly winds. Dry
through Thursday night, although the models are still having some
issue with the weak ridge aloft. The wave/MCS system that the
models have been persistent with for Friday night...the 00Z GFS
has weakened with the NAM and ECMWF far more aggressive. More in
line is the system for the weekend...Saturday being another
stormy day as a surface low tracks through the Midwest, and a warm
frontal passage during the day on Saturday. The holiday weekend
will be warmer...but periodically stormy. Monday has mild
temperatures in the 70s...but again, cyclonic flow aloft with
plenty of moisture in the soundings will likely end up with more
weak convective showers at the very least in the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Complicated sky continues, with mid and high clouds broken on sat
imagery...with patches of status underneath without too much in
the way of reason. Patchy fog scattered out as well, with BMI the
sole terminal down to VLIFR. Obs vary to VFR...with cigs and vis
both being the scattered issues. With this in mind and what the
sat imagery looks like...not going with the more pessimistic
guidance. For the last two days the llvl moisture has been
overdone and with the sun coming not think thick stratus
is going to have time to form. Showers and a lowering for a
cumulus deck this afternoon...before scattering out later this
evening. Concern moving forward will be how much the llvl moisture
mixes out as to fog development tonight.




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