Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 262049
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Will issue a wind chill advisory for areas along and north of a
Jacksonville to Springfield to Decatur to Paris line overnight into
mid Fri morning for wind chills of 15-24F below zero with the
coldest wind chills in Knox and Stark counties around dawn Friday.
Wind chills reach near or below 15F below near Galesburg around
midnight, and se toward I-72 later tonight. Lows overnight to
range from 5-10F below zero from the IL river valley nw to zero to
5F above in southeast IL from I-70 se. Broken to overcast low
clouds still cover much of IL with some clearing far west central
and northern IL near WI border. Still getting scattered light snow
showers and areas of flurries over central IL (visibilities as low as
2-5 miles) due to lingering moisture off lake MI along with a short
wave dropping se into the area. HRRR may be a bit too progressive in
clearing low clouds from north to south during early and mid
evening. Low clouds to likely decrease over IL river valley early
this evening, but thinking it may take until overnight for
decreasing of low clouds in southeast IL since short wave still
affecting southern counties tonight. Also lingered chance of
flurries from I-55 east late this afternoon and early evening and
into mid evening in southeast IL. Strong 1042 mb arctic high
pressure near the MT/ND and southern Saskatchewan border and ridging
SSE into the Great Plains to settle se into IA/MO by Friday morning
bringing dry weather and bitter cold temperatures overnight into Fri
morning. North winds 10-17 mph and gusts 18-24 mph this afternoon
will veer nw and decrease to 5-10 mph overnight.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Morning upper air and satellite imagery depicts trough over the
central plains with clipper shortwave moving over IL, producing
continued light snow in strong 850mb cold air advection. Wave
continuing to move east and will break up in afternoon.

Ridge of high pressure to build in overnight, again producing wind
chills. Ridge to move off to the east through Friday and into
Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, overrunning from the next system
begins to develop into plains. NAM model brings snow into western IL
and feel not unreasonable. Will therefore add slight chc pops Sat
afternoon, with main pcpn Sat night to Sunday.

Models similar in development of frontal zone from western plains
low into Ozarks, with significant lift over boundary Saturday night.
This will push snow formation into central IL Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday. Main lift is Saturday night as upper wave
moves across great lakes, with pcpn lingering into Sunday. Diminshed
the pcpn Sun night as high pressure builds in.

Upper flow changes Monday to Tuesday, with pcpn again developing
into Monday night to Tuesday as surface low center develops in
plains and moves northeast, west of cwa though. The result is that
with this feature, area stays in the warm section and so pcpn starts
as freezing rain and changes to rain. Still uncertainty though, as
the operational models are very different on the timing of the
system movement. made few changes due to these differences.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

Light snow mainly se of the IL river at midday to gradually
diminish to scattered flurries during the afternoon. Carried vsbys
1.5-3 miles from I-55 se until mid afternoon and then mainly VFR
vsbys thereafter with flurries. MVFR ceilings to lift to low end
VFR ceilings during mid/late afternoon and then scatter out from
nw to se during mid/late evening. Another upper level short wave
to pass through IL later today and then clearing to come in behind
this feature by overnight. North winds 10-17 kts this afternoon to
veer NW and diminish to 4-8 kts by overnight and Friday morning as
1043 mb arctic high pressure over southern Sasketchewan settles
into IA/MO/IL by 18Z/noon Friday bringing fair wx and lighter winds.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053-055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...07





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