Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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447
FXUS63 KILX 050532
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Quiet weather conditions should prevail overnight across central
and southeast Illinois. A disturbance currently crossing the
Midwest will bring a patch of clouds to northern portions of the
forecast area over the next several hours. This disturbance is
also producing a few light snow showers/flurries across northern
Illinois, but this snow should stay north of the forecast area.

Going forecast was in good shape overall. Only minor tweaks were
needed to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

1033 MB high pressure over central Texas and ridging into southeast
IL is providing a nice sunny afternoon to much of central and
southeast IL east of the IL river. A band of 5-10k foot clouds was
spread east from IA across nw IL and approaching the IL river at mid
afternoon. These clouds associated with a weak short wave trof
moving into central IA. This trof will sweep eastward across
central/northern IL late this afternoon and into this evening and
bring this band of clouds over areas mainly along and north of I-72
into this evening. Another band of clouds to approach the IL river
by dawn Fri. Lows of 20-25F overnight with mildest readings south of
I-70. WSW winds 5-10 mph this evening to turn WNW later tonight west
of I-57 as a weak front moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Weak upper level ridging will build across the central portion of
the country on Friday bringing tranquil weather to central Illinois
with afternoon temperatures forecast to be close to where they
should be for the first week of February, from the mid 30s north to
the lower 40s far southeast Illinois. The next shortwave is forecast
to track southeast into the lower Great Lakes late Friday into
Saturday but the better forcing and moisture still looks to be to
our north so will continue to keep the forecast dry into the start
of the weekend. A much stronger shortwave will track east-southeast
into the Great Lakes late in the weekend with a gusty southerly flow
ahead of the feature pushing temperatures above normal for both
Saturday and Sunday. Light rain and snow chances start to increase
as we head through the day on Sunday, and especially Sunday night
into Monday as the cold front surges southeast across our area.
Temperatures Saturday ahead the potent shortwave will rise into the
upper 30s far north to the upper 40s far south, and by Sunday
afternoon, we look for highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s from north to
south accompanied by a gusty southwest wind.

Potent shortwave will dig southeast into the Midwest carving out a
longwave trof over the forecast area bringing in some very cold air
for a few days next week. 850 temperatures of -17 to -20C forecast
by the GFS and latest ECMWF models by Tuesday morning will translate
to highs mostly in the 20s, with some teens possible north. Wednesday
morning lows will drop off into the single digits north to the lower
teens far southeast. Wind chill values in the zero to 10 below zero
range are expected Wednesday morning as the center of the Arctic air
mass settles in. Scattered rain and snow showers will change over to
snow as the cold air surges southeast on Monday afternoon with the
light snow or flurries continuing Monday night into at least early
Tuesday. Over the long duration, we may see up to an inch in a few
locations but overall the main concern will be with the gusty winds
and low wind chills on Tuesday into Wednesday.

The good news is that it looks like only a quick shot of Arctic
air for our area as the deep trof slowly shifts east during the
second half of the work week. This will allow for a gradual
warming trend to settle over the area with temperatures rising
back into the low to mid 30s by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Generally quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions expected across
the central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time.
A couple disturbances will bring periods of CIGS to the area, but
most of them should be VFR. However, an area of MVFR CIGS is
beginning to push into northern Illinois and will likely brush by
KPIA & KBMI. Have covered this potential with a TEMPO group. Winds
should stay AOB 10 kts, with the direction shifting with the
approach/passage of the disturbances.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...BAK



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