Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 301130
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.  IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.  MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN.  WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ALL SITES FOR COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. THEN SKIES SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH JUST SOME CU AROUND.
ONE ISOLATED T-STORM WILL EFFECT DEC FOR AN HOUR SO WILL HAVE
TEMPO GROUP FOR IT WITH VCTS FOR COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE. HIRES
MODELS FORECAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE VCTS WITH SCATTERED CU AT ALL SITES STARTING AT
18Z...AND LASTING TIL AROUND 00Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BUT THEN HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF FOG WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN



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