Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 132310
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
610 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday: A clipper system will pass
well north of the forecast area tonight into Friday, with no
precipitation risk anticipated locally. The main impact felt will
be gusty winds, out of the southwest tonight and early Friday, and
west to northwest later Friday in the wake of the clipper`s
trailing cold front. The southerly flow ahead of the clipper will
keep temperatures nearly steady tonight and temperatures near or
above 60 for Friday.
Then, attention turns to the cutoff upper low off the California
coast. This low is expected to open up as it is kicked east
northeast toward the area for Saturday into Sunday. While this
system was previously expected to miss the area for the most part,
recent model trends are pushing the system a bit further north.
This would result in a risk of rain and/or snow across much of the
forecast area later Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation
amounts still do not look significant locally, but if the system
continues to trend north PoPs and QPF will certainly need to be
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday: Models continue to struggle
with the details with respect to the next system to impact the
area heading into the middle of next week. However, it is
looking increasingly like a strong/well phased upper trof/surface
cold front will move through by Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake
of this system, northwest flow and periodic clipper systems appear
likely through at least the end of the week. Have kept PoPs on the
very low side until a little more model consensus develops in the
timing of the main system. Aside from a brief warm-up ahead of the
cold front associated with the main system, below normal conditions
appear likely for most of the period.
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will be clear tonight through tomorrow morning. Then a broken deck
at 12kft will move across the sites during the rest of the morning
hours, with the sky becoming clear again, from west to east,
during the afternoon hours. Winds will be south-southwest tonight
through tomorrow morning. Then a dry front will move through the
sites during the afternoon, switching the winds to more westerly.
Winds will be 10-15kts tonight but then increase and become very
gusty tomorrow during the morning, gusting to 25-32kts at times.
Once the front moves through, winds will decrease some, but gusts
will still be about 24-28kts.