Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 021208
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CWA WILL BE SITTING ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS...ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE LESS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE
TIME...EVEN THOUGH BROAD TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US. ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND MAINLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THERE COULD BE LESS CLOUDS. BUT
WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS OR FORECAST SINCE CLOUDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE START FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF THE
LOT.  UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, KEEPS SOME VERY LOW POPS IN WITH THE FRONT LINGERING
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT FALLS APART.  THIS WEAKENING
BOUNDARY WILL POTENTIALLY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INTERACTION TO KEEP
THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH OF THAT, PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ACTUALLY DWINDLING WITH EACH MODEL RUN AGAIN.  AS THAT FRONT SETS UP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SETTING UP FOR A HOLIDAY
SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S, LITTLE WIND...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CU RULE KEEPING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IN PLACE SO CANNOT COMPLETELY CALL CLEAR FOR
FIREWORKS...BUT CLEARING TREND WITH SUNSET IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT
THIS POINT FOR AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
CHAMPAIGN. DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POPS RETURN MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FAR SOUTH.  MON NIGHT /TUESDAY TIME
FRAME IS WHEN THE AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO SHOW EVEN THIS FAR OUT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROKEN CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AT DIFFERENT LEVELS TODAY. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS GIVING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO BMI AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SPI IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN BECOME HIGHER AS THE
MORNING PROGESSES. EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OR BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA FROM THE RAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU/SC WILL BE AROUND
TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST STARTING AT CMI AT 00Z AND THEN PROGRESSING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING PIA AND SPI LAST AROUND
06Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-12KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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