Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KILX 281758
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1258 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THO MAY 28 2015

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER SOUTH...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONTINUES TO BE
TODAY AS WELL. RAPID REFRESH IS VERIFYING BETTER THIS MORNING AND
SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH
OF A RUSHVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO OLNEY LINE. THINK NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN KILX CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THO MAY 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. A BOUNDARY IS SOUTH OF
CWA AND COULD BECOME ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER ALL THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA SO WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ONLY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUNSHINE SO TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THO MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH SOME FINE
TUNING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT.  BEFORE THEN, THE
PRECIP IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN THE
EXTREME WEST...MODELS HINTING AT SOME WAA SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WINDS VEER AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY JUST
OFF THE SFC.  BULK OF THE SYSTEMS LIFT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE BOUNDARY.  TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
STARTING TO PUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CONTENTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THOUGH THE SHEAR MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, THE WARM AND MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR AN APPROACHING FRONT.
SO FAR, SPC HAS KEPT MUCH OF CENTRAL IL IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
FRIDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...WHEN THE MARGINAL THREAT SHIFTS TO THE
EXTREME SE ALONG  AND NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP UNSEASONABLY COOL
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  SUN NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN ALTHOUGH THE
 STILL TRYING TO PULL IN SOME POPS FROM CONVECTIVE NOISE IN SOME
OF THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THO MAY 28 2015

CU-FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG/SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THEN TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY
WESTERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP SOUTH AND WEST
OF SAINT LOUIS...SO THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE THEREFORE
INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH KSPI AND KPIA THIS EVENING. FURTHER
EAST...WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...HIGH
DEWPOINT AIR WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.