Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 200821
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

With the high pressure ridge well east of the area southerly winds
have returned to the area and this should bring above normal temps
back into the region, along with some increasing moisture. Models
continue to bring the front into the area with a line of
thunderstorms just ahead of the front moving into the CWA beginning
late this morning and then increasing to the southeast during the
afternoon. Satellite and radar loops already show this line of
storms across central Iowa and WI. Chance pops will be over most of
the area as the pcpn comes through, but will have higher pops to the
northeast and north as that is where the best upper level dynamics
will be during the afternoon. With the front/pcpn coming through
around max heating, instability and other severe parameters look to
support the potential for some of the storms becoming severe. So,
agree with SPC on the slight risk area this afternoon and into this
evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Severe weather threat continues into the evening hours for Central
and mostly southeastern Illinois in advance of the front moving
through the area. WAA through the day keeping plenty of
instability in front of the advancing showers. Convective activity
expected to continue into the early evening hours at least with
threat of damaging winds remaining the biggest issue. Precipitation
slowly coming to an end Sunday morning, with slight chance pops
south of Interstate 70 reflecting any lingering showers. Remainder
of the forecast is quiet with a surface high slowly drifting east.
Weak southerly flow at the sfc on the west side of the sfc ridge,
and very little flow aloft as the majority of the height gradient
is to the north of the region through the week. As a result,
temperatures on a slow warm up with no significant systems
bringing pops into the forecast beyond this weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail across the central IL TAF sites until
around 15Z with sct-bkn mid/high cloud cover above 10 kft AGL.
Winds S7-10 kts through nighttime hours. From around 15Z-24Z a
line of thunderstorms is expected to spread across central IL from
the NW. As the line approaches...SW winds will increase to
12-16G20-25 kts. Exact timing of thunderstorms remains somewhat
uncertain but have included VCTS in TAFS to account for general
expected timing and have included 4-hour TEMPO groups for most
likely reductions in vsby/cigs with thunderstorms.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...ONTON





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