Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 150737
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High probability (greater than 50% chance) of wind gusts over
  30mph everywhere north of I-70 on Saturday.

- A brief shot of cold weather will arrive early next week with a
  60-100% chance of low temperatures dipping into the 20s across
  all of central and southeast Illinois both Sunday night and
  Monday night.

- Next rain chance will hold off until the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

07z/2am surface analysis shows a cold front sinking southward
toward the Ohio River while widespread post-frontal cloudiness
lingers across central Illinois. HRRR/RAP forecasts suggest skies
will become partly to mostly sunny northwest of the Illinois River
around Galesburg by sunrise...then further E/SE to the I-55
corridor by midday and across the remainder of the KILX CWA by
mid-afternoon. Northeasterly winds will initially gust 20-25mph,
but will decrease this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure
currently extending from the Northern Rockies to Ontario builds
southward into the region. High temperatures will be considerably
cooler than yesterday in the middle to upper 50s. As the high
drifts overhead and winds become light, low temperatures tonight
will dip into the middle 30s. The ridge will quickly shift E/SE
into the Ohio River Valley on Saturday as a stronger cold front
drops out of Canada. Given the tightening pressure gradient
between the retreating high and approaching front, gusty W/SW
winds will develop. NAM forecast soundings indicate deep-layer
mixing up to 5000-6000ft, which will tap into a 40-45kt 925mb jet
ahead of the boundary. 00z Mar 15 HREF shows a high probability
(greater than 50% chance) of gusts exceeding 30mph everywhere
north of I-70...with a 40-60% of gusts over 35mph east of I-55 and
north of I-70 Saturday afternoon. With a good deal of sunshine
and strong W/SW flow, temperatures will rebound into the lower to
middle 60s.


Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Strong cold front will drop through the region Saturday
night...introducing a period of below normal temperatures early
next week. GFS shows 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping as low as
516dm by Monday morning, which will translate to the chilliest
weather central Illinois has experienced in weeks. High temperatures
will drop into the 40s on Sunday, then may struggle to even reach
40 degrees in many spots on Monday. Overnight low temperatures
both Sunday night and Monday night will drop below freezing. 12z
Mar 15 LREF indicates a high probability (60-100% chance) of temps
below 30 degrees both nights...with lower probabilities (30-50%
chance) of readings below 25F along/north of I-72 Sunday night and
along/east of I-55 Monday night. Anyone with tender vegetation
emerging outside, will need to take protective measures both
nights.

The cool airmass will be short-lived however, as rising upper
heights and a return to S/SW flow will help boost high
temperatures back into the 50s Tuesday through Thursday. Dry
weather will prevail through much of the extended until a weak
system pivots into the region and brings a few showers by
Thursday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Primarily MVFR cigs are expected in low cloud cover overnight,
with clearing from northwest to southeast expected from 10Z-16Z.
Localized IFR cigs possible as well. Winds N-NE 10-15 kts until
00Z, becoming light and variable by 00Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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