Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 292354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have exited east of the
Wabash river at mid afternoon. A weak front has recently pushed east
of the Wabash river with breezy WNW winds behind the front bringing
in drier air. Dewpoints range from the mid 50s to lower 60s over
central IL to 64-68F along and southeast of a Robinson to Flora
line. Diurnally driven scattered cumulus cloud field with bases of 5-
8k ft will dissipate at sunset leaving fair skies much of tonight
with nearby 1020 mb high pressure over AR and southern MO. Breezy
WNW winds 8-16 mph and gusts of 20-28 mph this afternoon will
diminish light after sunset. A weak short wave over central Iowa
will track east across northern IL/IN and southern WI tonight
keeping isolated convection north of CWA. Lows tonight mostly in the
lower 60s which similar MET/MAV guidance reflects.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Model agreement is pretty good with respect to the weather pattern
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next week.
Temperatures will average slightly above normal into midweek until a
storm system moves through the area (highs in the 80s, lows in the
60s). Then, temperatures will trend toward normal or a little below
(highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s) to end the forecast period.

A quiet start to the day is anticipated Monday with high pressure in
place at the surface as well as weak upper-level ridging. However,
by late in the day, southerly low level return flow will develop
over at least western portions of the forecast area. This return
flow will help low-level moisture increase again across the area,
prompting modest diurnal instability. This instability may result in
mainly diurnally driven showers/storms late Monday
afternoon/evening, and again Tuesday afternoon/evening. However,
upper-level support is lacking and do not expect significant
organization or coverage with convection that occurs.

By Wednesday into Thursday, a more organized threat of
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated as a northern stream wave and
associated frontal system cross the area. However, even with this
system, the threat of severe storms looks low.

Quieter and somewhat cooler weather is expected behind the midweek
system to end the week. However, another (weaker) northern stream
wave may bring another chance of showers/storms to the area to
finish the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions and light west winds up to 10 kts expected for the
next 24 hours as high pressure remains centered just south of the
area. A few thunderstorms may potentially approach western
terminals KPIA-KSPI during Monday afternoon...however probability
too low for mention in 00Z TAFs at this point.
Otherwise...scattered cumulus development around 5000 feet AGL
expected to develop after 18Z across central IL.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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