Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 260834
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The airmass in central IL north of the stationary front remains
relatively moist late tonight, with dewpoints still in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Patchy dense fog has been confined to our southeast
counties near Lawrenceville, with patchy light ground fog in
neighboring areas but not showing up at many observation sites. Will
keep a mention of fog in the forecast until shortly after sunrise.

Thunderstorm chances should remain primarily in our southeast
counties. The latest radar trends show a storm drifting north of I-70
toward Shelbyville and stretching toward Mattoon. That trend matches
the latest HRRR and RAP projections that storms will affect areas as
far north as a line from Shelbyville to Paris. The northward surge
of storms should retreat southward after 3 pm this afternoon,
eventually ending in our southern counties later this evening.
Spotty storm chances will continue south of I-70 overnight, but most
areas should remain dry tonight.

High temperatures today look to climb into the mid to upper 80s, as
dewpoints range from the mid 60s near Galesburg to the mid 70s
toward Lawrenceville. So humid conditions will continue today, but
no oppressive heat will develop. Low temps tonight will drop into
the upper 60s, with patchy fog once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

For tomorrow, some very low pops in the southern tier of the
state invof the remainder of the front as the next system approaches
from the northwest, bringing the chance of widespread precip with it
for Wed night/increasing into Thursday.  Models not very detailed
with the genesis of the precip, and the ECMWF and GFS definitely
having continuity with handling the exit of the shower/ts threat.
GFS more progressive with amplifying NWrly flow, ending as soon as
Friday...with the ECMWF hanging on through the first half of the
weekend.  Favor the GFS solution at this point, but the blends still
maintaining some pops for the end of the week.  Have started
trending back somewhat.

High pressure ridge builds into the Midwest and have started pulling
back on the pops from the blended forecasts as well.  The building
heat in the western half of the CONUS begins to shift eastward again
towards the end of the weekend, putting another warming trend in
place for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

High pressure will slowly build into the region over the next 12
to 18 hours bringing in slightly drier air and mostly VFR
conditions. The only exception will be in the 08z-13z time frame
where some MVFR vsbys in fog will be possible. Forecast soundings
suggest it will be quite shallow so any fog the does form
overnight will quickly dissipate btwn 13z-14z. Scattered to broken
cumulus will develop by late morning into the afternoon hours with
cig bases in the 4000-5000 foot range. With the slightly drier
look to the forecast soundings tomorrow, will lean more towards
scattered clouds at this time. Light and variable winds tonight
will become light northeast to east on Tuesday with speeds of
less than 10 kts.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith



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