Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 141801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
101 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Updated the forecast to adjust sky cover as more sunshine
appearing late this morning se of I-55 than earlier expected. Also
some slight adjustments to pops today and continued likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms over Knox, Stark and Marshall
counties into this afternoon, though heaviest rains today will
stay north of CWA where flash flood watches continue through 4 am
Sunday morning. More clouds and convection over northern CWA to
keep highs in the upper 70s from Peoria north. Meanwhile partly
to mostly sunny skies over southeast IL to warm temperatures
(currently in the lower 70s), into the mid 80s by mid afternoon.
A conference call was conducted at 10 am today with emergency
managers for slight risk nw of I-70 and enhanced risk of severe
storms over the IL river valley late this afternoon and evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Moisture channel imagery and upper air analysis depicts main short
wave over southern ID which will be track east next 24 hours and
triggering surface low development on surface frontal boundary.
This boundary extending from east central KS over northern MO into
northeast IL. As the upper short wave moves east, low center
expected to deepen and move northeast along frontal zone. This
will keep central IL CWa in warm sector today, with southern low
level flow of moist air into region. Only scattered storms
possible over northwest 1/3 of region today, as focus of
convergence on front, northwest of region today.

Low center to strengthen and move into eastern IA by this evening,
with main instability and shear in warm sector, just to the north
of CWA. Best pcpn and chance of severe in early evening in good
shear and instability just to northwest of area. Then as the low
continues by late evening, moving into southern WI, it will pull
cold front east over southeast IA and MO. Best chance of severe
will therefore be along and ahead of the front, in the late
afternoon and evening, mainly west of IL River, and then by late
evening in the area west of I-55. Front will track east overnight,
but low level instability should no longer be surface based, and
so isolated wind and possible hail may still linger will storms
ahead of front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Front will finally clear region in morning hours with lingering
precipitation ending. Gusty winds through the day. Cold air flows
in Sunday night. High pressure will be in control of weather
pattern through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect PIA and BMI this
afternoon with MVFR conditions possible with thunderstorms
especially at PIA. This convection close to a warm front just
south of I-80 in northern IL and ties to a 1008 mb in se CO. I-72
airports will see broken VFR ceilings around 5k ft at times this
afternoon while convection drops southward toward them during this
evening. Added LLWS to TAFs from 02Z-10Z with 2k ft sw winds of
45-55 kts while surface SSW winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 18-24
kts. Cold front passes through overnight with SSW winds switching
WNW and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts by Sunday
morning. MVFR ceilings also expected behind the cold front later
tonight into Sunday morning as showers end between 11-13Z.


Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Springfield`s low of 67F at 8 am this morning matches the record
warm low of 67F set on Oct 14, 1899. If temperature stays at or
above 67F through 1 am cdt tonight, it will tie a new record warm
low for Oct 14th.

Here are the Record Highs for Today Oct 14th...

Lincoln....... 85 in 1908
Havana........ 86 in 1989
Rantoul....... 86 in 1989
Galesburg..... 87 in 1947
Springfield... 88 in 1897
Peoria........ 89 in 1897
Bloomington... 89 in 1899
Danville...... 89 in 1897
Rushville..... 89 in 1947
Effingham..... 90 in 1899
Minonk........ 90 in 1897
Champaign..... 91 in 1899
Sullivan...... 91 in 1899
Robinson...... 91 in 1899
Charleston.... 92 in 1899
Jacksonville.. 93 in 1897
Tuscola....... 93 in 1899
Decatur....... 94 in 1899





SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
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