Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 241546
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1046 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Updated the forecast to increase cloud cover with a bit more
cumulus clouds developing along with a bit strong WNW winds.
Partly to mostly sunny skies the rest of today with the scattered
cumulus clouds dissipating toward sunset this evening. Highs in
the mid to upper 70s, with breezy WNW winds of 10-15 mph and gusts
to around 25 mph.

Late morning surface map shows 1029 mb Canadian high pressure
along the British Columbia and Alberta province line and ridging
se into KS. A chunk of this high pressure (1021 mb) will drift
across KS and into MO by sunset and ridge into central IL
providing fair and dry weather today. A 554 dm 500 mb low over
central MN will weaken to 557 dm as it tracks into NW/west central
WI by sunset and into central Lake MI early overnight. A deepening
upper level trof into the Midwest including central IL is helping
to develop the scattered cumulus clouds with bases of 3-5k ft with
a few broken ceilings possible especially ne of I-74. Temps
currently in the upper 60s and lower 70s should climb into the mid
to upper 70s by mid/late afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 40s and
lower 50s over IL river valley and upper 50s and lower 60s in
southeast IL will mix out and slip a few more degrees during the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
The forecast is pretty quiet for this round. Mild through the
weekend, and precip chances holding off for Central Illinois until
later in the week.

The cold front that has left far milder air behind here in the
Midwest has progressed to roughly the Appalachians this morning.
High pressure is trying to build into the region...with the ridge
oriented more NW/SE over the Plains. As a result...winds on this
side of the developing ridge are more northwesterly and will
continue that way through today...becoming more westerly later
tonight as the winds decouple. Not too far off the sfc, the winds
pick up a few knots...so including gusts near 20 kts for this
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017
Cooler through the rest of the weekend...and dry. A quick wave
rippling into the region later on Monday. Previous runs and to an
extent the most recent ECMWF keeping precip to the north...but
the GFS has come in a little more aggressive and widespread with
slight chances in the forecast for Monday afternoon/night.
Forecast slowly warms a couple degrees each day, however, late
Tuesday, as the wave aloft passes through the Great Lakes, the
northwesterly flow aloft breaks down as the 850mb thermal ridge
shifts to the east...opening up the region to the deep warm air
over the desert SW. 850 mb temps warm from 8-10C on Tuesday
night...to 17-18C by Wednesday evening. Temperatures at the
surface climb a good 7 to 9F on Wednesday and stay warm through
the end of the week. Flow aloft starts to look more zonal again,
and temps and RH continue to increase through the end of the week
in a more southerly flow regime. Timing and depth of wave that
brings pops back into the forecast for the end of the week and
into next weekend is very low confidence at this point and the
forecast is dominated by rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Not much of a change in the TAFs this morning. Mostly sunny and
gusty with VFR throughout the forecast. Overnight winds in a few
models show a little more backing to SW btwn 05-08Z...but some
models not as pronounced nor does it last too long. For now, have
left it out. Will see what subsequent runs make of it. West/northwest
winds and VFR with cirrus. Gusts to 20kts or so during the
afternoon/early evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS



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