Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011051
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
551 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH THE HELP OF
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF ILLINOIS FROM OHIO TO ARKANSAS. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THAT FRONT...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING FOR OUR COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS. MEASURABLE RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER...JUST TRACE AMOUNTS.

NORTHEAST FLOW USUALLY PROVIDES A DRYING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. AREAS NORTH OF PEORIA TO
BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
DESPITE THE PREVAILING CLOUDS...SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...AND BY FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE
FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT THE OLD ONE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS IN POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO FORM BY LATE FRIDAY
AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. TIMING
OF THE PRECIP DEPARTURE ON SATURDAY IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY...WITH 80 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS 80-85 LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 900MB HAS TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE CLOUD LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT PIA, WITH SOME IFR CLOUDS AT
CMI THROUGH AROUND 14Z. PIA COULD SEE MVFR UNTIL 14Z, THEN SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUDS IN THE 4-6K FT RANGE BEFORE BECOMING SCT BY
00Z/7PM.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT SPI AND BMI AS DRY AIR WORKS
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE TRENDED WILL
CLOUDY CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING. DEC AND CMI COULD KEEP VFR
CLOUDS UNTIL LATER EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS CLIMBING TO 8-12KT DURING
THE DAY. SOME GUSTS TO 15-16KT MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP TO 4-6KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON



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