Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231727
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Surface Ridge now traversing Illinois with light winds. Stratus
and patchy fog continue to move westward across southeast and
portions of east central Illinois. Expect the edges to begin to
erode as more insolation comes into play and dry air mixes down.
Though models may be dispersing the moisture a little fast given
the strength of the inversion evident in 12z KILX Sounding. Have
made some adjustments to delay clearing and lower high
temperatures in areas that currently have deepest boundary layer
moisture.

A mid deck moving eastward from Iowa may impact KGBG, but it is
moving into very dry air and should dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

High pressure centered to our north today will bring pleasant
weather conditions to most of the area. However, a band of lower
clouds over parts of eastern Illinois early this morning was
drifting south-southwest and looks to affect, at least through
the morning hours, our east and southeast areas. As a result, with
the cloud cover expected to hold on into at least the early
afternoon hours, temperatures will be tapered back a bit from
guidance with the cooler afternoon highs (mid to upper 60s) over
the east and especially far southeast counties. while out west,
with full sunshine, we look for afternoon highs in the low to
possibly mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

500mb ridge building into the Midwest for the first part of the
weekend will keep the mild weather in place through tonight and into
tomorrow for Central Illinois.  After a Sunday with high temps
approaching 80F and increasing southerly winds, the next system will
bring rain chances back to the forecast Sunday night.  The overall
shift in the long waves puts the Midwest into an active weather next
week. Some timing differences for the next system Sunday
night...with the GFS the earliest with the onset of rain NW of the
Illinois River Valley before midnight. ECMWF and NAM dry before 12z
Monday morning. NAM actually driest in the bunch for Monday with
very little in the way of QPF, even though it similarly develops the
warm frontal boundary to the north, keeping much of the region in
the warm sector. NAM responds with precip, but delays the more
widespread QPF until the cold front moves through on Monday night.
Forecast will keep the chance mentions Mon-Tue for that round...with
some clearing possible later on Tuesday.  But any clearing will be
short lived as a deep low out of the SW develops its surface system
over the southern Plains, driving WAA into the Midwest with a
developing warm front/precip on Tuesday night. Forecast looking wet
through the middle of the week through Thursday with the eventual
passage of the associated sfc low and cold front. Unfortunately, the
larger scale shift to a more progressive and active weather pattern
also means that the break between systems is short, and the next
weekend is also starting to look potentially wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

MVFR Deck from KBMI-KDEC westward has been making slow progress
west through the day. As surface ridge pushes east expectations
are for the westward progress to reverse and all terminals should
scatter out by late afternoon.

A weak wave is progged to top the mid-level ridge overnight and
provide enough lift to produce an occasional CIG in the western
sites late tonight. Clouds will likely be near the top of
subsidence inversion would should keep any CIGS generally VFR.
Will introduce a few hours of BKN at KPIA and KSPI.

Gradient picks up Sunday morning and south winds should increase
to 10-20 kts by mid-morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barker



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