Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 291747
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1008MB LOW NEAR KHUF...WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. DESPITE PROXIMITY
OF LOW...15Z/10AM RADAR IMAGE IS NEARLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS IROQUOIS COUNTY. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED WEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. HRRR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST...HOWEVER
THIS HAS PROVEN TO BE WAY OVERBLOWN. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM IS
ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL AN UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA ARRIVES TONIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN JUST SLIGHT CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAJORITY OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OUT TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING.  ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM EXITING TS RESULTING IN SOME
FOG THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED IN A COUPLE HOURS MAINLY IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEMING A BIT REPETITIVE AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
REMAINS IN A LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FCST PD.  A
STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION KEEP POPS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN. FORECAST KEEPS SOME POPS IN TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND INCREASING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST IN NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS, WITH A BREAK TUES NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ON WED AND SO ON THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. WED/WED
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SOME OF THE MORE FOCUSED POPS AS A BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN SFC WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS.  ANY BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
SET UP IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS/DYNAMICS FOR ANY SHORT
WAVE ASSISTED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM.  THE SERIES OF WAVES STARTS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE DISSONANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED AS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND STORMY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

EARLY MORNING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO THIN/DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST OBS GENERALLY SHOWING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER
AT AROUND 3500FT. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES...WILL CARRY LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET. SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDER. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE 12Z
MODELS...BUT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS. AS SUCH...KEPT FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOW VRF CEILINGS AND VCTS COMING INTO THE
PICTURE BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BACK TO WESTERLY
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES



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