Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 290202
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
902 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE DECREASED TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...ALTHOUGH VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S. HAVE ALLOWED
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF
CENTRAL IL HELPING TO COOL TEMPERATURES OFF...HOWEVER IT FAILED TO
REACH SCHUYLER...CASS...MORGAN...AND SCOTT COUNTIES AND THEREFORE
HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100 CONTINUES IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING.

NEXT FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTHEAST
KS THROUGH CENTRAL IA...CURRENTLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. WITH OUTFLOW AND NOCTURNALLY COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...STORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE FEATURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL IL. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA...BUT NEVERTHELESS STORMS SHOULD
STEADILY INCREASE INTO CENTRAL IL THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE IL RIVER...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO FORECAST FOR TIMING OF
STORMS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONVECTION ALREADY GOING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN MORE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THAN WIDE-SPREAD. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
SO POPS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S WITH PCPN AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA AS A TROUGH
TRIES TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOUNDARY DOES BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW SO WILL ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...SO WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL IL TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 3-6Z...ENDING BY
18-20Z. AT THIS TIME...TIMING/LOCATION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH STRONGER STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS
WITH LOW-END VFR CB CLOUD COVER...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS EXISTS. WINDS S 4-8 KTS UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SWITCHING TO NW 6-12 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20 KTS
AFTER 13-15Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...ONTON


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