Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 130721
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
221 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The center of a sprawling Canadian area of high pressure will build
into central and southeast Illinois today from the northwest, while
the upper level flow is expected to trend more neutral. The dry air
associated with this surface high is helping to rapidly scour out
the low clouds in place across the region, and see no reason this
trend will not continue. The air mass is too dry to support much in
the way of diurnal cloud development today. Expect high temperatures
today to be similar to, or a degree or two warmer than, yesterday.
This warming will be the result of nearly full sunshine today, as
there will be little/no warm advection taking place today given the
expected position of the surface high.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Core of surface high to drift eastward across the Midwest Saturday
night and early Sunday, with mostly clear skies prevailing. Think
upper 30s/lower 40s will be widespread, but probably a few degrees
above records in most areas. Temperatures on Sunday should reach
the upper 60s with a few lower 70s southeast.

Upper riding just offshore of the Pacific coast to build inland late
this weekend, with a shortwave in the north central U.S. digging
southward on Monday. Next chance of rain will be focused with this
system. Have trimmed back the PoP`s late Sunday night and mainly
kept them northwest of the Illinois River, but have increased them
to the likely range (around 60%) across the northwest half of the
forecast area on Monday. The precipitation should die off quickly
Monday evening as the support from the upper wave pulls away.

Midweek pattern shows the upper ridge slowly building eastward, with
a large surface high dominating the Great Lakes. While temperatures
remain below normal for this time of year, some slow moderation will
take place as the ridge inches toward the Mississippi Valley. The
strong surface high will continue to influence us even as it moves
into New England late week, keeping the next rain maker to our west
until later next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MVFR-IFR ceilings are predominant from KIJX-KPIA eastward while
partial clearing is resulting in mainly VFR conditions to the
west. A band of scattered light showers will continue to affect
east central Illinois for the next few hours, but produce no
significant visibility restrictions. Expecting partial clearing to
result in mainly VFR conditions from about KSPI-KBMI westward by
morning, but IFR-MVFR conditions likely to continue to the east.
Visibility reduction is possible anywhere that gets temporary
clearing overnight given rich sfc RH...but will likely be very
patchy and persistent surface winds will likely mitigate
visibility reductions so no mention is yet included in area TAFs.
Late morning drier air aloft and surface heating should allow
cloud cover to become scattered around 3000 ft AGL through the
day. Winds generally N7-12 kts until 22Z...then decreasing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...ONTON






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