Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 201937
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
237 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A cold front west of the area is still forecast to move toward the
area into northwest IL this evening. Storms are expected to
develop along the front later this afternoon and move slowly
east-northeast. Airmass over the western part of the CWA is well
capped and convective clouds remain confined to the area around
the front. HiRes models show some convection reaching into
northwest parts of the CWA, but remaining northwest of the IL
river this evening. As front becomes parallel with the mid level
flow and the loss of heating, front will stall and precip will not
get very far east. Will maintain a chance of storms northwest of
the IL river tonight. Some could reach just across the river and
into the overnight hours, but by morning, precip will have
dissipated/diminished and Thursday will then be dry. Given a
washed out front tomorrow, airmass will be the same as today, so
very hot and dry conditions are expected again.

Not much cooling overnight though temps should get down into the
upper 60s with skies are clear. Highs tomorrow will be very
similar today. Near record temps are possible tomorrow, which can
be seen in the climate section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Surface high pressure ridge will remain over the area through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. And with hurricanes
Jose and Maria sitting out east in the Atlantic, the trough in the
west will remain out there as well. So, dry and above normal temps
are expected through Monday night. Models then try to bring some
precip into the area beginning Tue afternoon; however, there are
some differences in this solution. So, result is only a slight
chance of precip Tue through Wed...which will only show up in the
grids and not the worded forecast.

Above normal temps expected through Tue...upper 80s to low 90s. By
Wed, temps should begin to cool, but likely still remain above
normal. Near record temps are possible through the weekend, which
can be seen in the climate section below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies are
clear, but expecting a little bit (FEW) of CU/SC to develop this
afternoon. Then skies should clear for the night. New model runs
showing some slowing/timing of precip in west/northwest IL late
tonight and even some thoughts that PIA will not see any precip at
all. Most models are dry, while GFS still has precip. For now will
go with zero precip in TAFs and let later shifts update once
precip materializes. Winds will be southerly through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Record highs through the weekend:

Location         Thu       Fri       Sat       Sun
--------       -------   -------   -------   -------
Bloomington    94/1908   94/1930   92/1937   94/1933
Champaign      95/1891   95/1891   94/1891   94/1891
Charleston     95/1940   95/2005   93/2010   93/1933
Decatur        95/1955   94/2005   92/2007   93/1933
Galesburg      90/1940   92/1988   89/1937   90/2007
Olney         100/1940   96/2010   94/1960   94/2010
Peoria         93/1940   93/1930   92/1937   92/2007
Springfield    96/1931   95/2005   93/2007   93/2007

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Auten
CLIMATE...Auten



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