Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231129
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
629 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A high pressure ridge in the mid levels today will continue to bring
clear skies. With high pressure at the surface now centered over the
eastern Ohio River Valley region, southeasterly to southerly winds
will develop to around 6-12 mph by afternoon, along with occasional
gusts 10-20 mph. The stronger winds will be toward western IL. With
moisture still relatively dry today (dewpoints near 50), highs
reaching the low to mid 80s will continue to feel relatively mild.
The warmer mid 80s will be generally west of I-57 where stronger
southerly flow advects warmer air from the south into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Upper level pattern has begun its transition to a flow more out of
the southwest, as the ridge overhead breaks down through the day.
This will lead to a more humid air mass moving in beginning on
Tuesday. With a frontal boundary becoming nearly stationary not too
far to the north, periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur
most of the week, although tonight should be largely dry except late
in the far west.

Main concern will be the potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms through the period. While CAPE values increase
nicely across the western CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, 0-6km bulk
shear values are expected to only be around 25-30 knots,
suggesting more of an environment conducive to pulse-type
strong/severe storms. There is also some uncertainty as to the
influence on any previous convection in terms of boundaries or
ability to clear out enough to help destabilize the atmosphere.
Some indications also are seen on the ECMWF of one or more MCS
systems late in the week, especially Thursday night with the
stationary front much closer to us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois terminals
through the 12Z TAF valid time. Low probability of thunderstorm
activity possible toward the end of the period from KSPI-KPIA
westward so have included VCTS in TAFs. Winds will trend
southeasterly with time as high pressure slowly pulls eastward
from the area. Wind speeds becoming 7-10 kts after 15Z...with late
morning/afternoon gusts to around 15 kts possible for KPIA-KSPI.
Cloud cover should be minimal through most of the forecast period,
with increasing mid and upper cloud cover late in the forecast
period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton


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