Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280837
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary has edged further north across the forecast area
early this morning with several weak surface waves tracking along
the feature. Main forecast issue, at least in the short term, will
be the fog threat over west central Illinois early this morning with
several sites to our west already down to less than a mile. The
combination of the rainfall that occurred over parts of west central
Illinois overnight and the clearing skies and light wind regime will
continue the threat for at least patchy dense fog through the early
morning hours. Will add a mention of some fog in the west this
morning where skies have cleared. Forecast soundings indicate the
low clouds will return with the fog, at least across the north,
for several hours early this morning with the better rain chances
this afternoon into the evening across the north as the last of
the surface waves shifts off to our east. Another day with a wide
variation in temperatures with the cooler afternoon highs across
the far north where cloud cover will be more extensive. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 across the north with middle 70s forecast for
our southeast counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Upper level low that is responsible for all the weather today is
slow to move through the region tonight...but will be moving across
northern Illinois this evening.  Given the general slow trend with
the system for days...not inclined to scrub the precip out entirely
after 7 pm...and have left some slight chances in there across the
northern tier to handle any stray showers.  A break on Friday from
showers and thunderstorms, and max temperatures will be about 3-5
degrees below seasonal norms.

An almost identical situation setting up a slow moving low out to
the west in the wake of the current system. Rain chances return for
Friday night through the weekend as a warm frontal feature lifts
into the region. Warm sector showers and thunderstorms dominate
Saturday and Sat night, until the upper low finally progresses
through the region on Sunday. Sunday night will have some clearing
of the precip with drier air wrapping around the system.
Models have managed a pattern shift in the wake of the weekend low.
The deep trof over the western half of the CONUS shears out and
northwesterly flow is trying to set up in the models...but as of
yet, they are struggling with properly handling the potential trof
moving into the flow Mon night/Tuesday. Forecast still dry...banking
on drier air moving into the Midwest from the NW and robbing the
approaching trof of moisture needed for precip.  Still some
dissimilarities between ECMWF and GFS for the beginning of the week,
with the ECMWF much more further south with the piece of energy
early on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT THU Apr 28 2016

Frontal boundary lying across the southern TAF sites early this
morning with scattered TSRA occurring along the boundary. The
storms look to be weakening and expect that trend to continue
over the next several hours. Latest satellite data and surface
observations suggest our TAF forecast area will be in between
LIFR cigs across our north, to possibly a period of VFR cigs
across the south. Low pressure will track across the area today
and be to our east later this afternoon. Until then, this track
will bring about variable wind directions across the forecast
area with mostly an easterly flow in the north, and winds
shifting from a east to southeast direction into more of a
southwesterly flow later this morning as the low tracks across
central Illinois. We look for mostly MVFR to low VFR cigs
once the low shifts off to our east later today into tonight.
Winds will be westerly at that time as well across the
forecast area with speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith



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