Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 200507
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER THE WEAKENING RIDGE. SO FAR, HOURLY
CONDITIONS ON TRACK FOR A COOL EVENING. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT...WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA DUE TO THESE
WINDS...DELAYING PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA DESPITE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND LIFT ALOFT MOVING IN. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT DESPITE STARTING OUT COOL THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A WEAK WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WHILE A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST PCPN MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WEAK WAVE COMING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY WILL NOT
HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE PCPN, BUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PCPN
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR WED EVENING, JUST IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. BEYOND TOMORROW EVENING, DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE US. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST AND ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND BUILD AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK WAVES
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST US.
SEVERAL OF THESE WAVES WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER, IT IS TOO FAR
OUT TO PIN POINT WHEN IT WILL RAIN AND WHEN IT WILL NOT. SO WILL
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TEMPS WILL BE
ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THEN TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BACK UP AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST. AM EXPECTING
MUCH WARMER TEMPS UP TO AROUND 80 FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOSING GROUND TO APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
SLOWLY LOWERING CIGS WITH APPROACH. MODELS VARY IN BRINGING THREAT
FOR PRECIP MID MORNING, BUT DRY COLUMN AND THE MODELS ARE
INITIALIZING SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. KEEPING THE VCSH MENTION FOR MID
MORNING ON AND ADDING IN A TEMPO FOR 18Z AND BEYOND WITH A
PROGRESSION FROM WSW TO ENE FOR RA. LIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN 4 HRS
OF A SHOWER THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A PREDOMINANT IS LOW. ALL MODELS AGREE IN FORWARD MOTION
OF THE SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE MIDWEST BY 00Z AND SEE MORE CLEARING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...HJS



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