Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 242351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
651 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A ridge of high pressure currently extending from the Upper Midwest
to the Tennessee River Valley will slowly shift east of the region
over the next 24 hours.  Light northeasterly winds this afternoon
will become easterly tonight, then southeasterly on Tuesday as the
high slowly departs.  Given the continued dry low-level flow, any
low clouds and precip associated with the next approaching system
will hold off until Tuesday evening at the earliest.  Overnight low
temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s and lower
40s...while highs on Tuesday climb into the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

With high pressure ridge east of the area, a weather system will
develop out in the plains and move toward the area. Warm air
advection precip is possible ahead of the system Tue night, but low
layers will be quite dry and any precip will have to moisten the
lower levels before any precip reaches the ground. So will have a
chance of precip Tue evening in the northwest and then increase it
to likely after midnight. The system will intensify somewhat Wed,
and combined with a little increase in low level moisture, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be likely Wed morning, spreading
further east Wed afternoon. The front will push through most of the
area Wed evening so precip will continue across the area with the
highest pops being in the east & southeast Wed evening. Late Wed
night, precip will diminish and then dry weather will be the rule
for Thur through Friday as a brief high pressure moves across the

Models continue to differ with what is going to happen over the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. The GFS and Canadian
quickly bring a front through the CWA for Friday night, and then
have dry weather the remainder of the forecast period. The ECMWF has
dry weather through the remainder of the forecast period. Due to the
differences in model solutions, will just follow the blend, which
will have precip for Friday night only.

Temps through the forecast period will be seasonable with the
warmest day bring Friday and the coolest days being Thur and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The surface ridge axis has shifted just east of Illinois early
this evening, with a continued drift to the east expected through
the next 24 hours. Light northeast to east winds will continue
the rest of the night. Directions will become southeast on
Tuesday as the next low pressure system approaches from the
Plains. Wind speeds should remain in the 8-10kt range tomorrow.
High clouds will increase through the day tomorrow, with
precipitation chances holding off until after this TAF period.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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