Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 260451
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TX/OK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION...LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE WILL DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT SHORT TERM MODELS TENDING TO
HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS SO HAVE
TRENDED PRECIPITATION LATER...HOWEVER MAINTAINING LIKELY
PRECIPITATION BY 7 AM ACROSS CENTRAL IL. CORRIDOR OF PREFERRED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP LOOKS TO SKIRT THROUGH SOUTHERN IL
DURING THE MORNING...LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THESE
TRENDS AND EVENING TEMPERATURE/WIND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD KEEPING
SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AT BEST THERE. THE WESTERN CWA HAS HAD SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS AS IT IS OUTSIDE THE CIRRUS SHIELD...BUT THIS SHOULD
FADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUBSIDENCE OCCURS ACROSS THAT
AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...BUT THEN
CLOUD UP AGAIN LATER AS SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF ARRIVES FROM
THE SEVERE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL SUGGESTING PERHAPS TAKING UNTIL EVEN 3-4 AM BEFORE WE SEE
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...I HAVE RAMPED UP THE
POP`S QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND AFTER 3 AM IN THE
EAST. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 10 MPH OR SO...LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 66-68
DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT WAVE NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG THE WESTERN TX/OK BORDER TO
EJECT NE INTO IL ON TUE LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW TO NE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SW AREAS LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND OVER REST OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IL TUE EVENING. SPC SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK SOUTHEAST OF
IL ON TUE AND NOW MAINLY OVER KY/TN/MS/AL WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT. STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUE
AFTERNOON FROM SHELBYVILLE TO DANVILLE SE FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUE WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 80F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (HIGHEST IN SE IL).

RATHER WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS IL
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
AREA THE REST OF THIS WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK HIGHER IN SOUTHEAST IL ON WED WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NW OF
THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECT NE INTO
THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WED AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-72. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S WITH SOME LOWER 60S NW OF THE IL RIVER. HIGHS WED IN
THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING A BIT OVER THE EASTERN STATES WED NIGHT
AND THU SO CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. AREAS FROM I-72 NORTH LOOK DRIER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME CLOSER TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE
AND MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN FRI/SAT WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL SATURDAY AND SAT
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY. A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO TEH CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-12 KTS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TIMING OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INDICATE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN 10-12Z. SOME LIFTING OF
PREDOMINANT CEILINGS LIKELY IN AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ACCORDING TO MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
WITH CIGS ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD. SHORTWAVE AXIS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY BRINGING A DECREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 00Z AND HAVE ENDED VCTS AND 4 KFT
AGL CIGS. WINDS CONTINUING S 10-12 KTS UNTIL 14Z...INCREASING TO
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS AND SHIFTING TOWARD SW. WINDS
DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON



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