Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 241859

159 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop in
the unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the main band of rain
and storms that is aligned north to south from near IRK to
SGF. Initial tornado threat will be with the MCV structure that is
currently moving north-northeast from Sedalia to Kirksville the
next few hours. Perhaps this activity will skirt our western CWA,
but the larger threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will
arrive a bit later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave
will lift northeast across the region with an arcing band of
thunderstorms accompanying it. The enviroment will be supportive
of embedded mesovortices and short lived tornadoes as low level
shear and helicity values will increase as the surface wind begins
to back to the south-southeast as low pressure forms to our west.
This activity should be progressive and therefore the threat of
flash flooding remains low in our CWA.


.LONG TERM: (Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Memorial Day still looks dry as subsidence is expected behind
tonights system. Temperatures should be quite mild with some
sunshine expected. The dry weather will not last long thought as
next shortwave will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday
morning bringing the area another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Timing of convection has me doubting we see much
severe weather on Tuesday.

The pattern remains active the remainder of the week and straight
into next weekend. Chance of thunderstorms each day with mild
temperatures. Severe weather chances will depend on timing of
individual shortwaves and available instability/shear.


.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Gusty winds will persist into the evening with wind gusts around
25 kts. Scattered SH/TS are possible this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a broader area of SH/TS which will move through
the region tonight. After the rain begins and ceilings have
deteriorated to MVFR later tonight, they will probably not improve
to VFR until after daybreak tomorrow. Initially southeast to south
winds at TAF issuance will veer and become southwesterly between
25/09z-25/12z, then back and become southerly just beyond the end
of the valid TAF period.





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