Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 191137

637 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Large area of sfc high pressure will move from the Grt Lks to off
the NE coast with the ridge axis extending thru the OH Rvr Vly and
then into the sthrn Plains. The morning should start off with
some patchy fog, especially across cntrl and SE MO, which should
burn off by mid mrng. There will also be some scattered stratus
floating around, again esp across MO. Stratus, transitioning to
scttrd stratocu should persist thru the day. Friday should be a
few degrees warmer than Thursday. Low to mid 850 mb temps in the
low/mid teens support high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
the placement of the ridge axis should limit the amount of low
level moisture return on the backside of the sfc high as it slides
off the coast.


.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Energy that came ashore in the Pacific NW yesterday is fcst to
flatten the ridge across the Plains today and then dig SE thru the
wknd. This will drive a cold front thru the CWA late Saturday into
Saturday night. Temps in advance of the front are expected to be a
few degrees warmer than today which puts them above normal in the
low/mid 80s. At least scttrd SHRAs/TSTMs are expected to dvlp
along the front during the aftn and then continue thru the aftn
and into the overnight hrs as the front slides thru the CWA. The
front should clear the sthrn zones a few hrs shortly after
midnight. Any lingering precip should move out of our sthrn zones
Sunday mrng with drier air filtering in as another strong area of
high pressure assumes control. A secondary short wave will dig
down the back side of the trough on Sunday. The majority of the
dynamics pass well to the NE of the CWA but if this feature tracks
further to the SW, then an increase in cloud cover will be needed
with the possibility of adding mentionable POPs. the region
remains on the SW fringe of NW flow thru Monday. By then the
trough will have progressed to the east coast.

The remainder of the week is expected to be quiet with a persistent
500mb ridge across the Plains and large area of high pressure in
control of the majority of the eastern part of the CONUS. Temps
will slowly moderate thru the week while remaining in the 70s for
the most part for the rest of the week, which is near normal.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Focus will be FG this morning. Vsbys continue to fluctuate at
SUS/CPS and will do so for another hour or so, but shud quickly
improve with sunrise. Otherwise, winds will be sely today and
become more sly late tonight ahead of an approaching cdfnt. Winds
will remain aob 8 kts. Some mdl guidance suggests FG will develop
late tonight at COU/UIN. However, setup and upstream obs do not
currently support this and will keep out of TAF for now.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR and dry thru the period. Sely winds will
become sly late tonight remaining aob 8 kts thru the period.




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