Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290442

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Prefrontal trof to slide through forecast area this evening. Showers
and thunderstorms are already firing along it, but for the most part
should remain scattered in nature. Best chances initially will be
over central/northeast MO/west central IL, then slide southeast
across rest of forecast area this evening. Decent instability and
forcing, with the main threat being damaging winds. Otherwise, will
see storms weaken after sunset, then partly cloudy with lows in the
low to mid 60s.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Quieter weather is expected on Sunday as the upper level trough
shifts northeast of our area.  Could not rule out a few showers or
storms across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL where there
will be better low level moisture and instability near a
southeastward moving weak surface trough.  Slightly cooler low
temperatures are expected for Sunday night due to less cloud cover,
light or calm surface winds, and a little lower surface dew points.
The potential for convection will gradually increase from west to
east on Monday and Monday night as the surface ridge shifts east of
our area and southerly flow returns.  There should also be weak
shortwaves moving eastward through the region in weak west-
southwesterly upper level flow.  A better chance of showers/storms
is expected by Wednesday and continuing through at least Wednesday
night as an upper level trough/low moves eastward through the
northern Plains sending a cold front southeastward through our
forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night.  May have post frontal
showers on Thursday as a deep upper level trough moves through the
region, possibly continuing into Thursday night or even Friday until
the upper level trough and embedded shortwaves shifts east of our
area. Cooler temperatures can be expected beginning on Thursday due
to cold air advection behind the cold front. Drier conditions can
also be expected heading into the next weekend as a relatively large
surface ridge moves southeastward through our area with temperatures
slightly below normal for early June.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period with light

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected the next
30 hours.





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