Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 192042

342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest is still expected to produce enough ascent over the area
tonight to produce some showers. However, this ascent does not
look like it will enter the area until after 06Z, and the moisture
does look limited, so will only have slight chance PoPs going
after midnight. Southerly winds and more clouds will keep
temperatures warmer in most areas than last night.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

(Monday through Wednesday)

Lowered PoPs a bit tomorrow to just slight chances and confined them
to the southern half of the CWA during the morning hours as
GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all showing that the axis of the upper ridge will
move east of the area by 00Z.  Then the rest of the period still
looks dry as the upper pattern amplifies over the eastern half of
the eastern CONUS.  We will stay dry under an upper ridge with a
large upper low developing over the eastern CONUS.  Generally
followed MOS temperatures which were in decent agreement and
lined up pretty well with mixing down 900mb temperatures.

(Thursday through next Sunday)

Generally followed the more consistent ECMWF solution for the
extended part of the forecast.  Will continue to go with a dry
forecast through the period as any rain associated with an upper low
moving from the Rockies into the southern Plains on Thursday and
Friday will stay southwest of the area.  By next weekend, an east to
west oriented upper ridge will move over the region.  Expect
temperatures to remain seasonal with this pattern with generally
surface light winds.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

High pressure extending across the Ohio Valley region will
continue to move eastward into West Virginia and areas to the
east. Weak frontal boundary over North Dakota expected to move
southeast and move through eastern Missouri and southwest and
west-central Illinois between 1000-1500 UTC on Monday. Widely
scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible dueing and
after the frontal passage.

Specifics for KSTL:High level cloudiness will remain over the area
through late this afternoon. Southwest winds of 6-7 kts are likely
during the afternoon. Mid-level cloudiness will move into STL area
after 02 -0300 UTC this evening. Lower clouds around 050 Kft will
move into STL area after 1000 UTC. Widely scattered light showers
or sprinkles are possible between 1000-1500 UTC Monday morning.





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