Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 292035
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Cold front now extending from north central Missouri into east
central Kansas will continue moving southeast this evening.  Front
should be through the forecast area by 04Z or shortly thereafter.
Strong warm advection and shortwave energy ahead of the front is
producing a band of showers extending from near KTAZ to KAIZ and
this band of showers will continue moving southeast through the
remainder of the afternoon, and should be mostly out of our forecast
area by 00Z.  Should see the sky clear behind the front with
overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Northwest upper level flow will prevail thru Tuesday across our
region, with mostly quiet wx, warm temps thanks to persistent SW
surface winds for much of the period, and a weak cold front dropping
thru late on Tuesday.

While it now looks like the better WAA for Monday night will be to
our northeast, moisture is expected to sufficiently rise by Tuesday
afternoon coupled with the presence of a surface cold front to
justify a small, slight chance PoP for parts of southeast MO, with
this continuing into early Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, temps should warm well on Monday, thanks to strengthening
SW winds and decent sunshine, with the higher MAV MOS values
preferred for max temps.  Decent westerly flow to carry into Tuesday
and should allow for another nice warm-up despite weak cold front
moving thru--with strong temp rises into the mid 70s still expected
for areas near and south of I-70.  Somewhat cooler values for areas
further to the north with an earlier FROPA and NW winds.

The front should sag enough to the south Tuesday night for much of
that period to be dry, but will buckle back in full force on
Wednesday as a warm front.  With a decent slug of moisture being
pulled up with this front, have expanded slight chance PoPs over a
larger area--mainly near and west of the MS river.  Good levels of
moisture for early April and a slowly southward moving cold front
will provide for persistent above climo rain chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.  Where the front ends up late Thursday is where it
probably will stall until Friday afternoon, resulting in additional
rain chances.  The frontal position is a bit more south than 24hrs
ago, and so will tend to focus the better rain chances, as it stands
now, for areas south of I-70.

Temps expected to return to below normal for next weekend following
this wet period as the cold front becomes unstuck and resumes its
push to the south.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

VFR flight conditions with gusty south-southwest flow will prevail
this afternoon across the area. Isolated showers will continue
move from west to east, and short range guidance continues to show
a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor later this
afternoon. Further south...an area of MVFR stratus with ceilings
around 2500 FT will just scrape by our southern forecast
area, primarily south of a line from KFAM to KSAR to KSLO; although
those sites may see a brief period of MVFR if the stratus can get
far enough north. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri
will sweep southeast later this afternoon and finally bring the
shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the northwest
and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and gusty south-southwest flow to
prevail at Lambert this afternoon. Short range guidance continues
to show a line of showers redeveloping along the I-70 corridor
later this afternoon, and this band of showers will likely bring
some light rain to the terminal. Stratus over northeast Missouri
should remain well to the south-southeast of the terminal this
afternoon. The cold front currently over northwest Missouri will
pass through the terminal during the early evening and finally
bring the shower activity to an end. Expect wind to shift to the
northwest and the sky to become clear behind the front.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




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