Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 152140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
340 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


Area of light snow has moved to the southeast of the area with
decreasing clouds well behind the surface cold front. Story for
tonight continues to be the well below normal temperatures and
dangerous wind chills expected tonight. Northwest winds will lighten
up a bit tonight but still remain on the order of 10-15mph and that
combined with the low temperatures near zero will yield wind chill
values of -15 to -20F for much of the area. Wind chill advisory
still looks good so no changes made.


One more bitterly cold day as surface high pressure settles into the
mid-Missouri Valley. Steep low-level lapse rates and increasing
stratus from the north should yield at least a chance of flurries
across the area. Otherwise, very cold with high temperatures only in
the teens under a mostly cloudy sky.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Despite upper level trof sliding through region Tuesday night, will
only see an increase in clouds with its passage. Otherwise, surface
ridge to build in with light and variable winds. So it will be
another cold night with lows in the zero to 10 degrees above zero
range. Winds will be light enough that wind chill indicies will
not reach advisory criteria.

On Wednesday, surface ridge to begin moving southeast out of area,
allowing southwesterly flow to return to the region with the thermal
ridge building into the area. Gradual warmup expected through the
rest of the work week and into next weekend with highs in the 50s by
Saturday and Sunday.

In the meantime, the next system to lift out of the southwestern US
towards region beginning Saturday. Will see increasing low level
moisture and some decent WAA activity pop up during the day Saturday
into Saturday night. Better chances of rain will be during the day
on Sunday and into Sunday night as deepening surface low lifts
northeast through region, dragging a strong cold front through.
Models in some agreement on timing and placement with several rounds
of rain through the last half of the weekend.

As system exits region Sunday night through Monday morning, will see
colder air spill in on back side of system with rain changing to
snow before ending. Highs by Monday will be in the mid 30s to mid


.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Area of light snow moved south of the terminals earlier this
morning. Sky should at least briefly scatter out this afternoon,
but do expect more stratus to infiltrate the area from north to
south overnight tonight. Most of this stratus should stay VFR, but
MVFR likely further to the north at KUIN. Some flurries will also
be possible beneath this stratus. Otherwise, northwest winds will
slowly lighten up through the period but likely will remain aoa
10 knots with gusts around 20 knots continuing on Tuesday morning.


Sky should scatter out a bit this afternoon. More stratus for late
tonight and Tuesday, but should stay just above 3000 feet AGL so
conditions are expected to stay VFR. Flurries are also possible
late tonight and on Tuesday beneath this stratus.


Saint Louis      3  15   7  26 /  10  10   0   0
Quincy          -2  12   3  22 /  10  10   0   0
Columbia        -1  11   3  24 /   5   5   0   0
Jefferson City  -1  12   4  25 /   0   0   0   0
Salem            2  14   7  23 /   5   5   0   0
Farmington       2  14   6  26 /   5   0   0   0


MO...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.


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