000
FXUS63 KLSX 130443
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1143 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

SFC CDFNT STRETCHED FM SERN IA THROUGH NWRN MO INTO NRN KS AT 02Z
HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE ALONG THE CDFNT ITSELF HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LIMITED SO FAR. THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IA/IL/IN
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN A DIFFERENT MANNER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THE NET RESULT FOR OUR AREA IS A DECREASE IN TSRA
CHCS TONIGHT AND A MUCH LOWER SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. UPDATED GRIDS
AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

FOCUS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE POPS AND SVR THREAT.

SFC LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR KALO IN IA...IS PROGD TO MOVE EWD INTO
NRN IL...THEN NRN IN LATE TONIGHT. STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MDL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT AS THIS LOW MOVE EWD AND THE CDFNT DROPS INTO THE CWA...TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SE OF THE MAIN MCS ALONG THE CDFNT. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR SW THESE TSRA WILL
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE. BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE...BELIEVE TSRA WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND MAINLY E OF THE MIS RIVER TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS A LITTLE FARTHER W TONIGHT BASED ON THE 12Z DATA.

THAT SAID...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT MAY BE TOO FAR W...BUT
HAVE DONE SO DUE TO AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE STRONGER
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE CDFNT MOVES S. BASED ON 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DVN/ILX...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FNT AS
IT MOVES S HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SVR WITH MAIN
THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...HAVE TRENDED TWD WARMEST GUIDANCE DUE TO A
RATHER WARM DAY TODAY AND NOT MUCH COOLING ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT...EVEN BEHIND THE FNT.

TILLY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

FOCUS WILL BE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
UNTIL SAT.

THURS AND FRI ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 10+ DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH STL JUST SHY OF A RECORD...SO FAR. TRENDED AOA FOR
TEMPS THRU THURS BASED ON 850H TEMPS AND WITH ANTICIPATION OF MORE
INSOLATION. MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TEMPS ON FRI WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED TWD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
NOW.

MDLS SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BY SAT
WHICH WILL HELP WARM AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AGAIN.
WITH A SFC FNT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER IA...TSRA CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND FROM N TO S AS MCS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOW THE CDFNT TO PUSH SWD.

TRENDED COOLER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY AND POSSIBLE MCS IMPACTING THE
AREA...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TWD A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THRU MUCH OF THE EXTD.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA AT A GOOD
CLIP AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH KCOU BY 06Z AND THROUGH THE ST LOUIS
REGION FROM 09-10Z. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NICE SURGE OF
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER REMOTE AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN
VOID OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. BY MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE
AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP AND SHOULD
PASS THROUGH KSTL BETWEEN 09-10Z. UNTIL FROPA...OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SW SURFACE WINDS AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
UPON FROPA THERE WILL BE A NICE SURGE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. THE CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL WITH THE FRONT IS
RATHER REMOTE AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN VOID OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. BY MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE AND CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED.


GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX