Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 221755

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface ridge to continue moving off to the southeast today,
allowing southerly winds to return to the region. So the south winds
combined with sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm up to near
normal, in the low 60s far east to around 70 degrees over central

Clear skies and light south to southwest winds to persist tonight
with lows a bit milder, in the upper 40s to low 50s.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Not a lot of changes made to the prev forecast.  Continued warmer
trend on Sun ahead of the approaching cdfnt. Still expect fropa
during the after noon hours for most of the CWA. Also continued with
the cooler trend on Sun night and Mon as the sfc ridge settles into
the region. Going forecast for Mon may still be too warm, especially
across nrn and ern portions of the CWA where CAA will continue

Focus turns to precip chances Tues night thru Wed night. Mdls are in
generally good agreement, although have ignored the 21/18z DGEX as
it is an outlier compared to the other latest guidance. The GFS
digs the trof too far south to become a cut off low. Have trended
away from this soln in later periods and twd the ECMWF with good
support from the GEFS and GEM. Did increase PoPs where mdls were in
good agreement. However, overall, the latest solns are slower than
the prev cycles.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure in control at the SFC and aloft will produce clear
skies thru the prd. The center of the SFC ridge will remain to
the S/SE thru the prd keeping winds S/SW. An upper level
disturbance will pass to the N of the area Sunday. The LLJ will
ramp up across the area tonight in advance of the upper level
disturbance which is fcst to produce LLWS after midnight. The LLWS
is expected to continue until the winds pick up Sun mrng. The
upper level disturbance will drag a cold front thru the area
tomorrow aftn. Due to very dry air...FROPA is expected to be dry.
SFC winds are fcst to become SW as the bndry approaches and may
become gusty across cntrl/NE mo and W cntrl IL by late Sunday
mrng due to a tightening pressure gradient as the cold front
approaches. Warmer temps tonight and light sthrly flow should
keep river valley steam fog from forming.


VFR fcst thru the prd. Marginal LLWS is expected tonight after
midnight as the LLJ ramps up...and should continue until SFC winds
pick up Sun mrng. An upper level disturbance will drag a cold
front thru the terminal late Sun aftn but due to a lack of
moisture FROPA is expected to be dry.



Saint Louis     69  55  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          68  51  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        70  51  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  71  51  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           64  48  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      67  50  74  47 /   0   0   0   0




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