Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 221740
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

The work week will start quiet and dry. An area of high pressure is
expected to move across the nthrn portion of the CWA today allowing
winds to become more E/SErly by this aftn. This will keep winds fairly
light and mixing heights around 900mb. Combine that mixing height
with 850mb temps rising to 10-12 degrees by 00z leads to max temps
in the mid/upper 60s. Add a few degrees on for a super adiabatic lapse
rate near the surface and highs should be near 70...and MOS guidance
supports those figures. Monday and Monday night will be the coolest
24 hr prd this week with a slow moderation in temps beginning on
Tuesday.

Miller

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Tranquil, dry weather pattern with a very gradual warming trend
beginning Tuesday.  Good radiational cooling tonight will lead to
slightly below normal low temperatures in the 40s. Upper low now
over southern Idaho will move out into the northern Plains with
some convection ahead of it spreading into northwest MO as early
as Tuesday or Tuesday night. It appears that the precipitation
will remain northwest of our forecast area due to dry and stable
atmosphere in the low-mid levels associated with the persistent
surface ridge extending from the Ohio Valley and northeast US west
southwest into eastern and southern MO. The upper level low will
weaken and likely begin to retrograde west southwestward through
the central Plains Thursday night and Friday. As the surface ridge
eventually weakens and a weak upper low comes up from the
southern Plains there may be a slight chance of showers/storms by
Sunday or Sunday night.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Ridge of high pressure to remain over the region with light and
variable winds and clear skies. Ridge will move off to the east a
bit by midday on Tuesday, so winds to become southerly at KUIN and
KCOU and easterly over metro area.

Specifics for KSTL:
Ridge of high pressure to remain over the region with light and
variable winds and clear skies. Ridge will move off to the east a
bit by 16z Tuesday, so winds to become easterly over metro area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




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