Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221717
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The surface wind footprint of the surface ridge axis continues to
shrink to the northeast, making it a little tricky to accomodate
for direction changes through this forecast period. There appears
to be a little more capping of moisture and lift aloft, slowing
the onset of VFR cloud base/ceiling development this afternoon.

This warmer air aloft may have an impact on the KPAH and possibly
the KCGI TAF during the latter period, limiting the chances for
rain before 18z Wednesday. Went more concervative with the rain
coverage in the WFO PAH TAF sites.

Still kept a mention of MIFG late tonight at KCGI, given the
penchant for the development of patchy fog near the observation
site and part of the runway.

Overall, VFR conditions should dominate at all of the TAF sites
for a majority of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...Smith



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