Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140429
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1129 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Fairly subtle changes to sky cover added to overnight forecast
with the approach of scattered cirrus clouds across the WFO PAH
forecast area. Despite the addition of a few clouds, weak cold air
advection and radiational loss in the planentary boundary layer
should keep temperatures currently in the forecast in force across
the area.

Am a little concerned with the limit on the PoPs and weather going
into Tuesday. The Canadian (GEM) guidance seems to have a good
handle on the approach of convection from the northwest. However,
for now, will not touch that forecast period but it will bear
monitoring.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Surface High pressure will anchor across the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley, drawing in cool and dry northerlies and northeasterly
across the Quad State through the remainder of the weekend. This
will allow temps to drop to near record levels in the lower and
middle 40s tonight. A 25-30 degree rebound tmrw will make for
pleasant Highs in the lower-middle 70s.

On Monday, height falls across the upper Mississippi valley will
translate southward with time, as an upper jet/trof axis streaks
across the upper Ohio river valley mean trof. Limited moisture
and the brevity of return flow means Pops will be marginal,
despite the dynamical strength of the jet driven system. We`ll
continue with a slgt chance 20 mentionable Pop for our western
counties mainly Tuesday, but some sprinkles or isolated showers
may occur anytime along/ahead/or just behind the system`s
approach/passage Monday-Tuesday. During this time frame, temps
will moderate back through the 50s/70s for lows/highs,
respectively, approaching their upper thresholds even.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A tranquil autumn-like pattern will persist through the extended
portion of the forecast. The region will remain in northwest flow
through Friday with high pressure riding over the western U.S. and
an upper level trough in the east. At the surface, the core of high
pressure will migrate across southeastern Canada into the Great
Lakes and northeastern U.S. through the latter half of the week. As
a result, dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected.
Daytime highs will slowly moderate through the mid and upper 70s
with nighttime lows in the 50s.

The upper level ridge in the west build into the region by next
weekend. Southerly winds will develop at the surface as the high
continues to shift to the east. As a result, temperatures are
forecast to warm into the lower 80s on Saturday. This may eventually
lead to a small chance of precipitation over the weekend. Prefer to
keep the forecast dry at this point given lowered confidence from
relatively poor model agreement that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Little change from 00z to 06z Sunday TAF forecast. Although Cirrus
will be moving across the TAF sites through 12z Sunday, did not
include it in this package since it will have essentially no
impact to the lower ceiling limits of general aviation across the
local forecast area.

Although there will be decent boundary layer moisture near 12z at
each TAF sites, mixing under the ridge should not precipitate any
measurable cumuliform cloud development, so kept sky cover
essentially clear. The next forecast issuance may require the
introduction of some cloud cover into the end of the 12z-18z
Sunday time frame.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






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