Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KABR 272131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
331 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A warm front is currently located over northeastern SD and into west
central MN where temps have warmed into the upper 30s and mid 40s.
While decent WAA at 850 MB should push the front northward some more
yet this afternoon, weak CAA should begin to push into western SD
later this evening. With contrasting airmasses, a good SW to NE
frontogenetic band should develop over the central CWA tonight. This
front, along with an upper level jet streak and surface low crossing
the central plains will set the stage for banded pcpn. The pcpn
should begin as a mixture of rain and snow before changing over to
all snow for most locations. A few models are showings a tongue of
warmer air aloft in the SE portion of the CWA where freezing rain is
possible. Models soundings suggest any freezing rain will be brief
with only minor accumulations expected. Will hold off on headlines
as the confidence in freezing rain is low. Snowfall amounts of 1-3
inches are possible as well. Pcpn should progress into MN by 18Z
Tuesday with dry conditions expected the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

The main system to affect the area during the period will come
through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. This clipper-like
low will track right across the eastern part of the ABR CWA. Progs
continue to indicate a swath of light snow with this storm, but
nothing too significant. Snow amounts should be less than an inch.

The rest of the period looks pretty much dry until perhaps late in
the weekend, or early next week as a stronger system makes its way
into the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be around or
slightly below normal at the beginning of the period, however
they`ll trend above normal for the rest of the forecast as a ridge
aloft builds north and then east over the area by week`s end.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions this afternoon will eventually give way
to MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions later tonight through Tuesday
morning. An area of low pressure crossing the region tonight will
bring lower cigs and light snow to most locations. The terminals
of KABR and KATY will have the best potential of seeing reduced
visibility due to falling snow.




AVIATION...SD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.