Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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074
FXUS63 KABR 020854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND WILL BE INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ND...MOVING SOUTHWARD. AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SD. LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TODAY...BUT A FEW MEMBERS BRING THINGS INTO
THE JAMES VALLEY. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS AN EVEN
FURTHER EASTWARD PUSH IN ACTIVITY TODAY AND BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISO/WDLY SCT
AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA TOWARDS I-29.
COOL POCKET OF 500 MB TEMPS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HRRR CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS EASTWARD PUSH IS A TREND THAT
CONTINUES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...HAVE SLID POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...MAKING WAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
HIGHS. KEPT WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY
WILL BE LEAST IMPACTED BY THESE VARIABLES. HIGHS COULD PUSH 70
THERE. 60S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE BUT RANGE OF 60S ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP DURATION/FREQUENCY. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS A
NICE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AT 925/850 MB MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL ALSO HAVE GOOD MIXING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING
TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS DAMPENED AS A
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

WITH DECENT WAA IN PLACE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...THEN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMBG AND
KPIR WILL BE AFFECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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