Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230524
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1224 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Red flag warning for the southwestern portion of the CWA has
expired. Seeing quite a bit of high cloud cover moving in, so have
adjusted sky cover to fit. No changes made to winds or
temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Upper level ridging along with a surface low pressure system over
western SD is producing warm temperatures and gusty southerly winds.
The ridge and surface low will slowly track eastward tonight with
gusty, down-slope winds likely.

During the afternoon hours on Tuesday, the surface low pressure
system should be located over eastern ND with a trailing cold
front/dry line bisecting this CWA. While convection will be possible
along the front, warm temps at 700 mb may keep thunderstorms from
developing until 0Z. With an upper level trough of low pressure
closer to the region by 0Z, mid-level temps should cool off
allowing for convection to develop. While strong to severe storms
are possible, locally heavy rainfall maybe the main threat. PWATS and
specific humidity values are two standard deviations above climo,
especially along and east of the I-29 corridor. Storm motion
should be fairly slow as well, which leads to locally heavy
rainfall.

Wednesday through Wednesday night will be dry with breezy northerly
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

The upper trough across southern Canada will move quickly out of the
region late this week and allow west to southwest flow to develop
quickly across the area. This will usher more chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be Thursday night and again
Saturday.

Pattern looks pretty active with shortwave activity, so forecast is
broad brushed with Pops. Expect this to tighten up as we get closer
and timing can be nailed down. Temperatures will warm up from the
70s late week into the 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Tuesday. A 50+ knot low level jet currently over the area
will result in low level wind shear at all TAF sites now through
about 13Z. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the
far eastern CWA around 00Z Wednesday, possible affecting KATY.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Connelly/Parkin


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