Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282325 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO...IF NOT BELOW...THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
P-TYPE...ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR MIXED
IN...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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