Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 210954
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
354 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

An upper level shortwave currently over Omaha will track
northeastward today, before stalling over northern MN tonight into
Sunday. This system will bring light pcpn into the far eastern
portion of the CWA today with the dominant p-type being liquid. Will
likely need to make additional adjustments to the weather grids yet
this morning to reflect rain and drizzle.

While it may not seem like it, there is a pocket of lower dew points
over central SD. A few sites in Faulk, Potter, and Sully County are
showing dew points in the teens. The drier air should be pulled
eastward today which should end with widespread fog. The drier air
will likely not reach northeast SD and WC MN where light pcpn and
fog may continue through Sunday. The region should see dry
conditions Sunday night through the first half of Monday. By Monday
afternoon, a significant storm system will begin affecting the
region with snow possible moving into the western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The models and gefs ensembles still all show a significant
surface low pressure area moving across the central plains from
Monday night into Wednesday. There still remains differences in the
track, speed, and strength of the system. Although, the indications
for the best chances of snowfall and best accumulations still remain
across our southern CWA in central SD. The models all show some
differences behind this system as it moves by with respect to the
surface pressure gradient and timing of the surface high pressure
area building in. There is also some light qpf mainly across our
east in the models shown into Wednesday night in the caa behind the
exiting system. At any rate, each solution would bring differing
northwest winds in behind the system from Wednesday into Friday. The
gfs would bring much more wind and resultant blowing snow with not
much wind with the EC solution. Highs through the period should be
mainly in the 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Right now, all four terminals are either LIFR or VLIFR in low
clouds or moderate to dense fog, or both. Guidance trends fog/low
clouds dissipating at KPIR/KMBG during the day on Saturday. KABR
is also expected to improve. KATY will probably remain in some
form of IFR flying weather over the next 24 hours. There is also
some light rain slowly moving north toward the KATY terminal at
this time. Will continue to monitor the potential for this light
precipitation to reach the KATY terminal heading into daytime
hours on Saturday when the next area of weak low pressure moves
through the region.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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