000
FXUS63 KABR 281608
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1108 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

No changes made to the morning package outside of adjustments to
match sky cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

The period begins with a surface high pressure and upper level
ridging over the region. While upper level ridging usually brings
warmer temperatures, the surface high pushed a back-door cold front
across the CWA. The cold front should lift northward some later
today with highs possibly reaching the mid 70s west river. Further
east, partly cloudy skies along with good boundary layer moisture
not seen in the past few days should yield cooler temps for the
eastern CWA. The surface high will gradually shift eastward later
tonight through Thursday which will allow return flow to develop
west of the James River valley. On Thursday, the surface high should
be over eastern MN with a surface low approaching the region from
the west. The pressure gradient will tighten with gusty southerly
winds expected along and west of the Missouri River Thursday
afternoon. The southerly winds continue on Friday and will bring
above normal temperatures to the region with highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

The dry extended forecast looks to be interrupted by a period of
precipitation chances somewhere in the Monday through Wednesday
timeframe. The 00Z GFS is still about a day or so faster than the
00Z ECMWF lifting energy out of a western CONUS longwave trof and
across the northern plains. At least, that`s what the latest round
of deterministic solutions is hinting at. Low level thermal progs in
the GFS/ECMWF models are currently still holding onto a near to
above normal temperature regime over the northern plains until after
this potential period of rainfall early to mid week, at which point
the caa to follow suggests night time low temperatures could be
dipping into the 20s to lower 30s with day time high temperatures
only reaching into the 50s. Again, the 00Z GFS is about a day faster
to bring this colder air into the cwa than the 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

The initial push of mvfr cigs overnight hit enough low level dry
air that much of it dissipated trying to work westward off the
prairie coteau of northeast South Dakota. KATY had some
1300-1700ft agl cigs for a short while earlier this morning. Now,
the second and much larger swath of mainly mvfr cigs are pushing
south and west into the region, and is expected to reach KATY
before 13Z this morning. KABR probably ends up seeing some of this
sub-vfr stuff by mid-morning before daytime sunshine/mixing
dissipates it. KPIR and KMBG should continue to see VFR
conditions prevail today and tonight.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn