000
FXUS63 KABR 171734 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A DIFFUSE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW WEST RIVER
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
EASTWARD TODAY SO BACKED OFF ON ANY POP PROGRESSION AND ACTUALLY
REMOVED ALL POPS AFTER 18Z. EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AGAIN
TONIGHT WHEN A LLJ FORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 60S. HOWEVER TODAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WAA WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S. COLDER READINGS ARE
LIKELY WHERE RECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OCCURRED.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WAA
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. A 20 TO 30 KNOT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 6Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. A FEW HI-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING SMALL AREAS OF QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS WEAK
LLJ. THUS WILL HAVE ADD A SCHC POP FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.

WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPS AT H850
WARMING TO NEAR CLIMO. TEMPS AT H925 ARE MUCH WARMER...WITH MOST
OF THIS CWA IN THE TEENS C. THESE READING ARE AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NOT
THE BEST AT MIXING DOWN WARMER TEMPS...THE LATEST 0Z GUIDANCE HAVE
WARMED SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERS
WILL RETURN THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION. AS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED LLM...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND NICELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPS
AT H925 REMAIN IN THE TEENS C. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
EVOLVING LONG WAVE FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS TO OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN
LARGER SCALE RIDGING/INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES KICKING OFF BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION COME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FROM THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 70S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OR
HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE
RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ALLOWING
FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. A LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAY INITIATE
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED REGARDLESS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE WHOLE REGION WILL BECOME GUSTY BY FRIDAY MORNING...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN