000
FXUS63 KABR 310527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND MINOR
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE WEAK 700HPA WAVES/OMEGA
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. 700HPA THETA-E FORCING NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THESE
MINOR RIPPLES SLIDING SOUTH. SPC WRF SHOWS MINOR -SHRA/-TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY REGION AROUND 17Z THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL DWPTS BY 18Z...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION ISOLD -TSRA ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

OTW NO OTHER MAJOR ISSUES WITH THE FCST. POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
WILL DO A SLOW INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY THE
WEEKEND. WINDS DON`T APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST. THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES DAMPENED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE FLOW. WEAK ENERGY MAY INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONGER FORCING APPEARS
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE
RETURN OF WIDESPREAD POPS TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AT THIS POINT. DUE TO
THIS...INCONSISTENCIES SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN AS WELL. THE
ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING COOLER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW. OVERALL
STAYED CLOSE THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO
THE LOW AREAL COVERAGE...NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN