Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 251629 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1029 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Forecast appears to be on track so no major changes needed at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

High pressure continues to drift south today, with return flow
developing across the CWA. 925mb warm advection and a favorable
mixing wind are expected ahead of a weak wave. 925mb temperatures
upwards of +2C suggests central and western counties could get close
to 40F. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and convective instability
will also support convective elements as the shortwave moves into
western counties this afternoon. There is actually two waves evident
in the NAM, with the first responsible for the "bulk" of the
precipitation. CAMS suggest a band of snow showers moving at a
decent clip across the CWA which will also limit QPF.  The rest of
the forecast appears dry with a low amplitude ridge building in from
the northwest. Cold advection follows the shortwave early Sunday,
but with light westerly flow we should again see favorable mixing
conditions Sunday, with highs again upwards of 40F west of the James
valley. The colder air will hang on in the northeast however. Mild
air expands east and will allow for more widespread 40 degree
weather on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

As has been advertised, the active weather pattern during the long
term portion of the forecast looks to prevail. Weak, clipper like
systems traveling along in a west to northwest flow pattern across
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will deliver periodic, but low
chances for precip next week. The best chance for this CWA to see
any organized pcpn appear to be late Monday into Tuesday when some
light snow will be possible. Little to no accumulation is expected
with this system at this time. After that, relatively more quiet
conditions may take hold with only minor, localized shots at pcpn
mid to late week.

The temperature trend through the period will remain at to above
normal for late February and early March. Overnight lows will
generally range from the teens to 20s. Daytimes highs are expected
to top out in the 30s and 40s each day during this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected during this
forecast period. A clipper system will slide through the region
later today and bring a quick round of some rain and/or snow
showers to the area this afternoon and early evening. Put mention
of this in at KMBG and KABR at this time. This activity should
exit to the east by late tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond


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