Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.










&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN
THE EAST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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