Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211749 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

No changes were made to the going forecast for this morning
through this afternoon. Still anticipate warm temps through this
afternoon as a warm front pushes across the region. And, still
expecting a few thunderstorms to pop late this aftn/early eve
along a cold front that will slide through eastern zones of our


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Dealing with two larger clusters of showers and thunderstorms early
this morning. The first one has now exited our southern CWA into
FSD`s CWA. Complex began to line out along I-90 with mainly 40 to 55
mph gusts, although the Presho mesonet did record a 62 mph gust. The
next complex of showers and storms is much weaker, but continues to
slide southeast across central/north central SD. Have adjusted
POPs/wx to better account for radar trends and expected evolution of
convective complexes as they move through.

For later today, models continue to show eastward progression of the
cold front into the eastern CWA by late afternoon. The best
instability resides over southeast SD, but a ribbon of moderate
instability does spread northward into the eastern counties.
Soundings continue to suggest a rather stout capping inversion will
be in place through most of the afternoon, which should put a limit
on most convection. So, although decent amounts of shear and
instability are present, it may be hard to get storms going until
perhaps after 00Z. Most CAM solutions are rather dry over the
eastern counties this afternoon, and show only isolated activity.
Did add slight chances over the northeast CWA this evening when cap
seems to erode and a few of the CAM solutions are suggesting widely
scattered convection finally gets going along the front. Do not have
a lot of confidence in convection trends today though, so will have
to monitor closely for storm chances further back to the west a few
hours earlier into the late afternoon hours.

Another upper level wave moves across the area on Thursday, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With any instability well south
of the area on Thursday, expecting just general showers and storms
with the threat for severe weather rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The first part of the long term will feature a trof digging
southeast into the Northern Plains, and then propagating east toward
the Great Lakes. A couple of decent waves aloft will track across
the region from Friday through Saturday, with chances for showers.
The good news is the threat of severe wx looks fairly low as most of
the llm/instability will have been banished far to the south.
Accompanying the digging upper trof will be a decidedly cooler
airmass, with temperatures averaging out below normal for most of
the weekend. The pattern then starts to break down for early next
week with mid level flow turning more flat and westerly.  This will
allow for a return to more summer-like temperatures and humidity by
mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A quiet afternoon is expected across all TAF sites with VFR
conditions prevailing. A cold front will swing through the region
this evening. A few thunderstorms could pop along with front with
the best chance remaining north and east. Did not include any
mention of TSRA for KABR and KATY attm. Another system will cross
the region on Thursday bring another chance for SHRA/TSRA. Did
include mention of this for KPIR early Thursday. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals thru this
forecast period.




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