Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 140922
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
322 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow mainly this afternoon, gusty winds late this afternoon
into this evening, and cold with wind chills from late tonight on
are the themes for this short term forecast. Lingering light
precipitation has ended over our southwestern counties, as the
initial sfc low/trough has exited across the the SD/NE border. Warm
air advection will continue through much of the morning, as 850mb
temps rise about 3C from the initial range of -6 to -13C (lowest
east). Still expecting sfc temps to rise into the 20s to low 30s
southwest, to the upper teens to low 20s northeast.

A more organized low across central Manitoba has a cold front
extending southwest near the MT/ND/Canadian border. This will be the
main feature of interest today. The sfc low will slide over the
northern ND/MN/Manitoba by 15Z, with the cold air and northwest
winds on our doorstep as the cold front begins to extend into our
northwestern counties. Expect this boundary to slide across the
northwestern half of the cwa by 18Z, and through the entire area by
22Z as the elongated sfc low sets up from north central to
southwestern MN. Winds will increase behind the front, with patchy
blowing snow possible with the newly fallen light snow. New snow
should be around an inch or less, with the lighter amount over our
northwest counties, and amounts closer to an inch southwest and east
of ABR. Cold Arctic air will again take hold. Confidence is high
that we will reach Wind Chill Warning criteria over our eastern
counties. Either lighter winds, or fewer hours of -35F or colder
should keep the rest of the area in Advisory criteria from late this
evening through the end of the period.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A relatively tranquil period is expected during the long term, along
with warming. The highly meridional pattern in place at the
beginning of the period will gradually break down as energy over the
Pacific Ocean sweeps away the western conus ridge. The pattern
evolution will allow for the cold air over the central US to get
replaced with a milder airmass come mid week. It also looks to be
quiet, with any pcpn chances holding off until next weekend.
Temperatures will start the period well below normal, but then trend
to above normal by mid to late week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

MVFR conditions (cigs) appear to have set up now at all four
terminals. Expecting much of the next 24 hours to be sub-VFR.
Patchy freezing drizzle and isolated flurries will also probably
be common at KPIR, KABR and KATY between now and sunrise Sunday.

The weather`s gonna get rather snotty at all four terminals by
Sunday afternoon when the next arctic cold frontal boundary blasts
southward through the region. The front is going to induce
scattered snow showers/snow squalls Sunday afternoon/evening as
strong and blustery northerly winds will develop, post-frontal,
Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-
     033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for
     SDZ008.

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for
     SDZ020>023.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for
     SDZ020>023.

MN...Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Dorn



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