Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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609
FXUS63 KABR 270526 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Have backed off some on pops overnight given radar trends.
However, coverage of pcpn may pick up again toward morning as
decent trof begins crossing the CWA. Temperatures look fine for
now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Upper level trough will move east across the Dakotas overnight and
into Saturday, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Models agree fairly well in bringing some scattered activity across
the area into the evening and overnight hours. On Saturday, the best
chances set up over the eastern CWA. An examination of severe
parameters for Saturday afternoon would suggest the potential for a
few strong to perhaps severe storms. Weak instability sets up along
with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles are moderately
strong a well.

After this system exits later in the day Saturday, will then focus
attention to the warming temperatures. 850mb temps climb into the
upper teens and 20s C on Sunday, which will translate to highs in
the 80s and 90s. Hottest temperatures are forecast across central
SD. Will also have to keep an eye on fire weather Sunday afternoon
over the far western CWA. Current forecast RH values are around 20
percent or below for fire zone 267, but winds appear pretty marginal
or even below criteria for headlines for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

The long term models show good agreement with the upper level and
surface features. An upper level ridge out to our west on Monday
will build slowly east into and to the east of our region through
the week as a large low pressure trough moves into the western U.S.
At the surface, high pressure over our area will build east with
very warm south winds developing behind it. The entire long term
will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. It will also be dry through most of the period until
Wednesday night through Friday as the influence of the upper level
trough moves into our region. Short waves will be lifting up and
over the ridge kicking off some showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period. Showers
are possible late tnt at both KMBG/KABR. If enough breaks occur in
the VFR cigs, patchy fog could form just about anywhere. However,
confidence is low so will not include in any tafs at this time.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Wise



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