Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The fog still seems to be more patchy in nature, with visibilities
bouncing up and down. A few observation sites along the Canadian
border in northeast ND also briefly reported fog, but the
steadiest fog has been from Waskish to Park Rapids to Wadena.
Still think this will dissipate in the next hour or so.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The first forecast challenge will be fog potential this morning,
with the mainly clear skies and light winds. So far, vsbys have
been up and down from Waskish to Park Rapids and Wadena. Will keep
a mention of patchy fog in these areas and continue to monitor the
vsbys in these areas. This fog should diminish pretty quickly
after sunrise. Otherwise, expecting quite a bit of sun today with
high temperatures pretty similar to Thursday. May start to see
some increasing clouds tonight from convection to the west, but
most areas will stay clear or partly cloudy with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The next short wave begins to approach the FA on Saturday, but
models disagree how much affect this will have. Some models keep
the pcpn further south in SD, while some still show the pcpn over
southeast ND and west central MN. Models show a low level jet
developing Sat night, which results in continued pcpn chances
across southeast ND and west central MN. The short wave will still
be over the FA on Sunday, which means lingering pcpn chances
across the southern half of the FA. This wave should exit to the
east Sunday night.

Monday through Friday...An upper ridge will be moving east
through the region on Monday, with a weak surface high exiting the
region toward the Great Lakes. After a sunny and quiet Monday, an
upper level disturbance will pass through the region on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday and will be dependent on whether or
not a second wave will move through the area on Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The GFS has the second wave with a cold front
late on Wednesday, while the ECMWF does not have the second wave
and has an earlier frontal passage. After a quiet Thursday, yet
another wave may affect the area early on Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The patchy fog has briefly clipped KBJI, but no other TAF sites
so far. Any fog should be gone in the next hour or so. Like
yesterday, there may be a few afternoon cumulus, but these would
go away again by early evening. Otherwise, increasing high clouds
from convection over western ND may affect KDVL or KFAR by late
in the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Godon/Knutsvig
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.