Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW DRY AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH AT LEAST NOON
TOMORROW. DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL THEREFORE BE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN ATTN TURNS TO TIMING OF
PRECIP TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERALL LIKE A MODEL BLEND WITH NAM DNG FOR
TEMPERATURES (HIGH RES AND BETTER DETAIL AROUND LAKES)
TRANSITIONING TO THE GFS FOR DEPARTURE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES. WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
AREAS TOWARD MORNING ALONG FORESTED AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
CALM. TO UNCERTAIN FOR A MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CURRENT DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW 60S AND REPRESENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO MB WITH WIND SHIFT BNDRY
ENTERING NW CWA IN THE EARLY AFTN. MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG OR
BEHIND BNDRY AND MODELS INDICATING REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERN ND BY
LATE AFTN. NAM INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF NEG SHOWALTERS RIGHT
ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BNDRY...BUT A SHARP RISE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT. WILL GO WITH PREDOMINANTLY SHRA FOR PRECIP TYPE BUT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG THE BNDRY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN ND AFT 09Z OR EVEN LATER.
LIKE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR BEFORE 12Z SUN
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE...AS THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS BEHIND
THE SFC BNDRY WILL RESULT IN A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE SE ZONES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
THE FAR NW BEING LIMITED (BY CLOUDS AND SHRA) TO THE LOWER 50S.
MID SECTION OF THE CWA WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT OF
BNDRY AND A SHARP BNDRY BETWEEN CLEAR AND OVC SKIES. OVERALL NOT A
BIG RAIN PRODUCER EXPECTED...WITH AREAL AVERAGES LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MONDAY...BNDRY WILL EXIT SE ZONES BY NOONTIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES OVER BY 18Z. HAVE PULLED POPS FOR MON AFTN.
HOWEVER...A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR MASS MOVES IN AND
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIODS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROF LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY SHOWS SOME
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN BRIEF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER A INTENSITY
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ECMWF IS THE WETTER
/AND MORE FAVORED/ OF THE MODELS AND SHOWS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FROST
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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