Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241449
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

UPDATED POPS/WX FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION NOW LIMITED
TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND A FEW ISOLATED CELLS POPPING UP FURTHER
SOUTH. MUCH OF THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME DECENT CLEARING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CWA...SO THERE COULD BE SOME DESTABILIZATION. RAP AND HRRR HAVE
REDEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 20-00Z TIME
FRAME THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SEVERITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS UNTIL A LATER UPDATE. WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 2 CORRIDOR IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS DOWN THROUGH BELTRAMI COUNTY.
SEEING SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY BEHIND MAIN CLUSTER IN EASTERN
ND. HAVE UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL CASS
COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL OTTER TAIL COUNTY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CONTINUING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY BARNES...RANSOM...SARGENT AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES. THOSE FOUR COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST
PRECIPITATION BUT REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND A
HEADLINES FOR WIDESPREAD OVERLAND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER
LOCALIZED LOW AREAS COULD SEE STANDING WATER TOMORROW MORNING.

CURRENTLY THE HI RES MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PRECIPITATION AND WILL BE USED THROUGH AROUND 18Z...WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH
AND A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO MY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.

TODAY...DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH OF THE HWY 2
CORRIDOR AND THE FAR EAST. SOME MODELS DO SHOW CU/SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE DRY SLOT BY LATE AFTN AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN MY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A SFC BNDRY STRETCHED FROM THE DVL
REGION INTO THE BJI AREA COULD BE THE SOURCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MINNESOTA THIS
AFTN...AS HEATING BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KTS BY 21Z. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO HEAT OUT THIS AFTN...SO ATTM CONFIDENCE FOR SVR IS
LOW BUT STILL POSSIBLE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OUT FOR THIS REGION.

TONIGHT....PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG OR NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FAR EAST. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTH AND PRECIP SHOULD END BY
MONDAY MORNING. A QUITE COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN WRAP INTO EASTERN
ND AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE
40S FOR PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA.

MONDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN STRUGGLING TO BREAK THE 60 MARK AND MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY AND BREEZY...MAKING A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR AUGUST. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WRN ONTARIO AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TUESDAY...UNSEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN FORECAST A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE
GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH OVER
THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.

TRIMMED BACK POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY WED AND WED NIGHT.
WILL SHIFT PRECIP EAST ON SAT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER FOR WED AND SAT. NO
CHANGES TO THU OR FRI FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SHRA AND TSTMS NORTH OF GFK AND OVER TVF WILL CONTINUE NORTH THIS
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPING TSRA POSSIBLY MOVING INTO GFK
AREA BY MID MORNING. OVERALL IFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD CLIMB
TO MVFR BY MID MORNING...AND HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT FAR. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFT
00Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT SO SW FLOW AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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