Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261121
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. PREFER
THE GFS OVER ALL OTHER MODELS THIS MORNING...SINCE GFS KEEPS THE
CAP IN PLACE THE LONGEST FOR MONDAY AND THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
GIVEN WARM MID LEVELS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM PERHAPS...BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND ADD THIS THREAT IF NEEDED TODAY WITH NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO AND HAVE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
POPS HERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR
EAST. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN WARM. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...50KT LLJ AND FORCING WITH A SFC
LOW/FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT...AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EAST BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF IFR NEAR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY STORMS WITH MINIMAL
FORCING...SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK


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