Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Upper level ridge was east of the area and an upper level trough
was over SASK. Flow aloft is zonal for much of the period. Trough
will move across southern MAN tonight with a jet max on the
southern periphery. Mucapes rise to around 4000 j/kg this
afternoon/evening. Cold front over northwest ND will move through
this afternoon and evening. High temps expected to be quite warm
over the southern zones this afternoon. Mainly the MN side is
under a slight risk of severe weather for the afternoon and

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Models agree with Thursday bringing the best chances for a dry day
across the area with surface high pressure building in. Thereafter,
models begin to diverge a bit more on any activity for the end of
the work week and through the weekend. As of now, late Friday and
into Saturday look like the best chances for precipitation before
possibly dry again Sunday but plenty of disagreement remains on
synoptic features.

Not much change in thermal profiles throughout the period with
temperatures right around average...highs in the low to mid 80s and
lows in the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Chances of scattered
showers/thunderstorms overnight near DVL, and for the rest of the
TAF sites on Monday. Coverage/timing for Monday`s showers and
storms makes the chances a bit too low to include at this time.
South winds tonight, turning northwest tomorrow after front passes
west to east across the area. Low level jet strengthening in the
northern Red River Valley may yield LLWS overnight.




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