Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181756 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High clouds are expected to thicken, especially tonight as an upper
level trough approaches from the W. This system will cross on
Thursday with SCT to NMRS showers and thunderstorms over central and
southern areas, and SCT to ISOLD activity farther N. Showers and
storms may begin to break out during the late morning over S central
areas, then spread to much of the area along and S of I-40 in the
afternoon (except the E central plains), before peaking in coverage
Saturday evening while favoring central, S central and SE areas.



.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017...
Mostly sunny weather with some high cirrus over southern and western
New Mexico today. Highs will be several degrees above average.
Increased moisture into southern and central New Mexico will lead to
afternoon storms tomorrow, focusing off the high terrain of the
central mountains first before shifting to central valley locales and
the eastern plains Thursday evening. A Pacific cold front arrives
Saturday, dropping temperatures for the weekend and providing some
shower and light snow over the northern mountains.


It`s been another dry and clear night across the Land of Enchantment,
with many valley locales experiencing localized temperature
inversions. A weak and remnant disturbance will work its way over SW
New Mexico today where a few isold storms could develop over the
Mogollon this afternoon. Otherwise, Wednesday will again be mostly
sunny with high cirrus being the main noticeable weather feature.
Highs will generally by 5-10F above normal today.

Another trough will approach western New Mexico Thursday, with
southerly low level flow entering SE and south-central NM ahead of
the trough, increasing low level moisture. This will help spur sct-
num afternoon tstorms over the south-central mtns with storm activity
spreading into the central valley and eastern plains later in the
evening hours. The expected cloud cover will limit daytime highs to
at or a nudge below avg. The NAM12 continues to be the most bullish
with the highest instability, showing CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg
over the RGV in Socorro county. This could lend to a few storms
producing hail and strong downburst winds. Some patchy fog will be
possible over southern and southeastern locales Fri morning from
remnant moisture.

Westerly zonal flow arrives Fri ahead of the next Pacific trough this
weekend. Conditions dry out considerably across the west Fri, with
southerly flow keeping the east relatively moist. Winds increase
across the west and east Fri afternoon, turning NW Saturday as the
front approaches. Models continue to show a fast moving frontal
passage Saturday with precip. localized to the northern mtns where
high elevation snow will likely dust the mtn tops. Temperatures fall
below average behind the front Sat and Sun.

The 00Z GFS is back to developing a closed low over TX Monday while
the ECMWF has remained consistent from yesterday`s runs showing the
trough continuing into the SE U.S. Both hold onto a strong ridge
building off the SoCAL coast and into the desert SW. This will lend
to a warming trend Monday, with a backdoor front cooling off the
eastern plains Tuesday. Long range, models are showing fairly benign
weather with the ridge shifting and weakening over the Rockies for
mid-late next week.



High clouds streaming into NM today are signaling the approach of a
low pressure system currently over southern CA. Low level moisture
will seep northward today while clouds continue to thicken. Minimum
RH values will trend several points higher today and high temps will
be similar to Tuesday. Ventilation will remain poor to fair for most
of the region with overall light winds. Moisture will increase more
tonight as the low pressure system crosses over AZ. RH recoveries
will trend much higher with even a few showers possible by morning
over the west central and southwest high terrain.

The greatest change to the forecast occurred Thursday as latest
models continue trending wetter. The coverage of wetting rainfall
looks more impressive along and south of the I-40 corridor where
higher terrain areas may pick up 0.25-0.50" rainfall amounts. The
drier low level airmass initially will still favor gusty and erratic
outflow winds, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. RH recoveries
Friday morning will be excellent over a large area with even some
patchy fog possible.

West/southwest flow will increase Friday behind the departing wave.
Widespread breezy conditions are likely with windy conditions over
the far western high terrain and the northeast plains. Ventilation
will finally improve to excellent all areas. Ridge top winds will
stay breezy Friday night as a larger upper level trough approaches
from the Great Basin. Winds will turn sharply north/northwest over
NM and cold advection will trend temps closer to or slightly below
normal. Some light rain/snow showers are expected for the northern
high terrain with little accumulation. Subfreezing temps are likely
again for northern and western NM with widespread 30s elsewhere for
Sunday morning.





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