Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260001 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ
TONIGHT...THEN NWWD THROUGH UT AND NW CO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT
CLUSTERS OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NM TONIGHT...THEN NWWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE WAVE TRANSITIONS NEWD ACROSS THE N
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTN...SCT TO ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
TRACK MORE FROM W TO E OVER NM WITH GREATEST TS PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE MTS...AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS N OF HWY 60. LOWEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE. PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND PRIMARILY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. GFS KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTH AND IN PARTICULAR...OVER THE NW
QUARTER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...LIFTING
THE SHORT-WAVE/ELY WAVE OVER CENTRAL AZ NWD INTO SRN UT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...FORCING THE UPPER HIGH EAST OF NM. THE
LARGE SCALE STRETCHING/DEFORMATION BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL GET STORMS GOING FAIRLY EARLY WEDNESDAY. NAM12 AND GFS BOTH
FOCUSING MOST ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NW
PLATEAU. DEFORMATION INCREASES FURTHER THURSDAY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED WAVE HEADS EAST AND FORCES THE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO THE
SOUTH. MODELS HITTING AREAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO
THE NE PLAINS HARDEST. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR BOTH
THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

UPPER HIGH STARTS TO REBUILD OVER SE AZ FRIDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO ERN NM FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUS ALONG THIS SFC BOUNDARY FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH THE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND PERHAPS THE SANDIAS AND MANZANOS. GFS HITS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS FAIRLY HARD NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION/STRONGEST DEFORMATION AREA.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. FOUR CORNERS HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN OR SWRN NM WITH THE
700MB (~10K FT MSL) FLOW REMAINING LIGHT SWLY KEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM SE AZ. MODELS KEEP PWATS ABOVE
DAILY MEANS FOR LATE AUGUST AND ALSO GENERATE NEAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CO WILL
BEGIN A GENERALLY CLOCKWISE DRIFT TO NEAR THE NM TX LINE WED AND
THEN TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BOOTHEEL THU. IN ADDITION A PRETTY
WELL DEFINED MID AND UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
CIRCULATE CLOCKWISE FROM SE AZ TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WED AND
BRUSHING N CENTRAL AND NE NM THU. RESULT WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD CROP
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOST WITH WETTING RAINFALL...FAVORING WEST
THIRD TO HALF OF NM INTO THIS EVE...THE NW HALF WED AND NORTH TO
PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL NM THU.

FOR THE MOST PART STORM STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND SE
TODAY...EXCEPT FROM THE SOUTH AND SE ACROSS FAR WEST NM...GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SW WED...AND THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BY THU. STORM
GENERATED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CREATE OCCASIONALLY MORE ERRATIC MOTION
HOWEVER.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A
MARKED SW TO NE ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN
IN STORM NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE
WETTING RAIN COVERAGE...BUT WE ARE ALSO GETTING PRETTY LATE IN THE
MONSOON SEASON WHICH USUALLY MEANS A MORE DIRECT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE S TO SW IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST FRI WILL MANAGE TO REACH PRETTY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS OVERALL...THOUGH THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MAY HOLD JUST BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
WHILE THE EAST MAY STAY JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND
MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR
DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH
THU...WITH SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY WEST AND CENTRAL. LOW TO
MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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