Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 272129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
TAP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD
OVER WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN OVER EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SIZE-ABLE HAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND DROPPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES
MAY TRY TO REBOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO PLUMMET AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
FROM AZ WITH A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WPC QPF
GRAPHICS DEPICT GOOD COVERAGE OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 1
INCH NORTH OF FARMINGTON AND NORTHEAST OF TUCUMCARI. SPOTTIER
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A POLAR JET STREAK CROSSES WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET SHOULD CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LOOKS TO
CROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TO SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS AS DOWNDRAFTS
TRANSFER STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. EVEN OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY AS A STOUT LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR STATE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD WRING OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COOLER DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW
TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...READINGS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
STARTING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD WEST
OF NEW MEXICO.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY MOIST WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND LOWLANDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO OBSERVE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH
PERIODIC LOW CLOUDS. IN THE WEST...INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR MORE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL WORK
EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
BE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS DUE TO A LEE
SIDE SURFACE LOW IN COLORADO. BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COLORADO. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL QUICKLY BE SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER/COOLER PACIFIC AIR FILLING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHEAST.

BY TUESDAY MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL HAVE FULLY EXITED
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND COOLER AIR LEFT IN ITS WAKE IN NM. BREEZES
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT THE SURFACE/20FT LEVEL WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM RETURNING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
ARRIVAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAINOUS ZONES...A CATALYST
FOR SEASONAL CURING OF FUELS. THE DRIER/COOLER AIR COULD BE
REINFORCED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH A FRONT. HAINES
INDICES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED THROUGH THIS TIME...AND POOR
VENTILATION MAY CROP UP BY THURSDAY IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. BY
NEXT WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWELL OVER THE BAJA AND GREATER
SOUTHWEST STATES...WITH THE GFS INDICATING THAT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MIGHT TRY TO SEEP BACK INTO NEW MEXICO FOR A LATE APPEARANCE.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND COULD
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KROW AND POTENTIALLY KCVS THROUGH 27/2000UTC.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
CLOSE TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. STORMS COULD PERSIST IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ADDITIONAL
BATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLVS...KROW...KCQC...KSRR...AND KAXX.
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  73  51  68 /  70  70  30  40
DULCE...........................  46  70  42  62 /  60  80  60  70
CUBA............................  50  70  47  65 /  40  70  50  60
GALLUP..........................  50  70  41  66 /  60  50  30  20
EL MORRO........................  49  66  44  65 /  60  60  30  30
GRANTS..........................  51  73  45  69 /  50  50  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  52  68  48  68 /  50  50  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  54  74  52  74 /  50  50  20  20
CHAMA...........................  42  66  39  58 /  60  80  60  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  73  50  66 /  20  50  50  60
PECOS...........................  50  66  50  65 /  20  30  40  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  70  46  64 /  20  40  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  43  59  43  56 /  20  60  30  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  68  38  63 /  30  50  40  70
TAOS............................  45  69  45  64 /  20  40  30  50
MORA............................  47  70  47  64 /  20  40  40  70
ESPANOLA........................  55  77  53  71 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA FE........................  53  68  52  67 /  20  40  30  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  53  75  51  71 /  20  30  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  78  57  73 /  20  30  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  79  60  75 /  20  30  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  80  58  76 /  20  30  20  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  81  58  76 /  20  30  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  80  55  77 /  20  30  20  50
RIO RANCHO......................  58  82  58  76 /  20  30  30  50
SOCORRO.........................  59  81  59  80 /  20  30  20  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  77  53  72 /  20  40  40  60
TIJERAS.........................  53  79  53  73 /  20  30  30  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  75  47  71 /  20  20  40  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  49  72  51  69 /  10  20  30  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  52  73  53  70 /  10  20  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  76  57  74 /  10  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  49  70  51  70 /  20  20  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  51  72  52  69 /   5  20  20  70
RATON...........................  50  75  50  71 /   5  20  20  60
SPRINGER........................  51  77  51  72 /   5  10  20  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  69  49  68 /  10  20  30  70
CLAYTON.........................  54  77  56  75 /   5   5  10  50
ROY.............................  53  73  55  71 /   5  10  20  70
CONCHAS.........................  59  79  60  77 /   5  10  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  58  76  59  76 /   5  10  20  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  81  59  80 /   5  10  10  50
CLOVIS..........................  55  76  56  78 /   5  10  10  30
PORTALES........................  56  77  58  78 /   5  10  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  76  59  79 /   5  10  10  40
ROSWELL.........................  58  80  60  83 /   5  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  55  75  56  77 /  10  20  20  40
ELK.............................  52  71  54  73 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




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