Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 191203 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
603 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
The next 18 to 24 hours will be active again before conditions
improve considerably Friday. Widespread IFR low cigs w/ patchy
fog along and east of the central mt chain will improve to VFR
aft 16Z. A brief bout w/ IFR low cigs at KABQ should also clear
quickly through 14Z. Clouds will redevelop rapidly over the high
terrain aft 19Z and lead to -shra/tsra thru 02Z. This activity
will move e/se near 15 kt and produce brief rain, small hail,
and gusty outflow winds. Activity will leave behind mid level
cloud decks thru 06Z before clearing overnight.
.PREV DISCUSSION...455 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016...
Quick update to add patchy fog across most of north, central and
east NM for early this morn that I likely should have added on
the main early morn fcst package. No other changes.
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT THU MAY 19 2016...
One last round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated today,
but more confined to the high terrain, the afternoon and early
evening hours and having smaller measurable rainfall footprints.
A high pressure ridge aloft will drift into and then across New
Mexico tonight and early Friday. Chances Friday will be much
lower still and even more limited to the high terrain as the ridge
moves east allowing a dry southwest flow to develop over the
state. That trend will continue for the next several days keeping
the west half to perhaps three quarters of the state dry. As some
lower level moisture comes some distance into east New Mexico
Friday night and Saturday a few storms may develop there Saturday,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. By Sunday, critical fire
weather conditions may return to portions of western and central
New Mexico, while the east may still see a few storms.
While there is still a pretty decent chance of spotty shower and
storm development today from late morn or early aftn on for
awhile into the evening, an approaching upper level high pressure
ridge will keep the activity somewhat more confined to and a
little ways east of the higher terrain. Decided to lower pops and
to some degree qpf areawide for today, both morn and aftn, as
models for the most part a little less bullish of precip. This
activity should diminish steadily as the evening progresses.
As shortwave ridging comes across the state later tonight and
Friday morn, further drying should continue. With a dry sw flow
commencing only a very few stray storms will still be possible
over the high terrain in the aftn and early eve. The sw flow aloft
should mix down to some degree and push winds up some at the
surface. Daytime temps should return pretty close to normal values
as a result.
Late Friday night or Saturday the dryline should surge into, or
otherwise redevelop, across east NM. It will likely erode back
east to some degree, but may temporarily stall somewhere in
central or eastern portion of the eastern plains and allow heating
to trigger isolated storm development. A few strong or severe
storms are not out of the question. Farther west, sw winds will
continue to increase drying things even further. Though the
dryline will probably ease back westward Saturday night, the mid
level dry slot will continue to push through the remainder of the
state on Sunday and mixing should quickly force the dryline
eastward. Precipitation chances will be significantly limited, but
winds will inch up further and humidities will continue to lower.
With the possible exception of occasional limited storm outbreaks
in the east, and mainly far eastern NM, the next several days
beyond Sunday will likely feature at least breezy afternoons and
early evenings, longer periods across the high terrain. And pretty
much precip free conditions with near to a little below normal
The very cool and wet pattern the past few days will come to an end
Friday, but not before one more day of scattered showers and below
normal temperatures today. Widespread precipitation amounts the past
3 days averaged between one half and one inch, with locally higher
amounts along the U.S. Highway 60 corridor. The exception was within
the Rio Grande Valley from about Isleta Pueblo north to ABQ, Santa
Fe, and Taos where gap winds and downslope flow shafted the area
from better precip amounts. The greatest chance for one last round
of wetting rainfall today will be over the Cont Dvd and areas along
and immediately east of the central mountain chain. Max temperatures
will trend 15 to 25 degrees warmer and min rh values 25 to 50% lower
than Wednesday. Recoveries tonight will remain excellent with wet
soils aiding boundary layer moistening.
Friday will feature a quick transition to much drier southwest flow
over NM. Max temperatures will trend another 5 to 10 degrees warmer
and min rh values 10 to 20% lower than today. Haines will trend up
with with widespread excellent vent rates. Southwest winds will be
breezy to locally windy for much of the area through Sunday. A
dryline is expected to slosh around the southeast plains over the
weekend however models have backed off on the coverage of storms.
Recoveries will continue to be aided by boundary layer moistening
from wet soils and early morning mid slope inversions. Min rh values
will trend lower with many areas below 20% by Sunday afternoon. Any
critical conditions will be mitigated by green up and soil moisture.
The status quo will hold for Monday through Wednesday as a potent
dry intrusion slides over NM on continued strong southwest flow. Min
rh values will trend below 10% in many areas while haines rise to 5
and 6 with excellent vent rates. Temps however will hold slightly
below normal for late May. A fast moving upper wave is shown to move
through Colorado Wednesday and force another back door cold front
into the plains for Thursday with cooler temperatures again. This
may only be a temporary change as extended guidance indicates a
return to more dry and breezy to windy southwest flow over NM.