Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 231121 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Broad upper level trough across the NW CONUS will keep southwest
flow aloft in place across NM today and tonight. Resulting lee
side sfc low will combine with daytime heating to create another
breezy to locally windy day across the region. Dryline related
low clouds will remain across eastern Curry and Roosevelt counties
until mid morning before getting forced ewd into west TX. Southwest
winds will gradually subside after sunset.
.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016...
Much of this week will be dominated by gusty afternoon winds and
dry conditions as a semi permanent Pacific low hangs out over the
western US. The Pacific low will draw closer to the state mid to
late week and initiate a few showers and thunderstorms across western
and northern areas. A secondary Pacific low should carve a trough
across the western tier of the US during the weekend. Southerly
flow should ensue and promote some dryline thunderstorms across
the eastern plains.
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Did add a
little more POP to the Wed/Thur/Fri period. Models are trending a
littler further south with the Pacific low/trough. Think there is
credence to that trend based on what is going on across eastern
portions of the equatorial Pacific. This means more energy for
some shower and thunderstorm development. Made the activity
initially drier on Wednesday with localized strong wind gusts and
little in the way of precipitation. This could potentially be the
case for Thur as well. All of the models seem to be showing this
trend. Residual impacts of the departing low appear to reside
across the north on Friday.
The surface dryline has sloshed back into far eastern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Added some initial heavier cloud
cover across NE and SE areas but also some higher clouds found
across the south. Tried to trend sky cover accordingly.
Overall...quite a bit of sun expected through midweek.
Temperature trends look to be pretty straight forward with a
gradual cooling trend by the middle of the week and lasting
through Thursday. Gradual warming trend expected Friday and
lasting into the weekend.
Models continue to show a secondary Pacific low deepening across
the western US during the weekend. South to southwest flow ahead
of the low would draw Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and allow
the dryline to sharpen across the eastern plains. Localized
stronger showers and thunderstorms would most likely result. This
is very typical for this time of year so confidence is at least
moderate for this impact.
A broad upper level trough across much of the western CONUS will
continue to keep a dry southwest flow aloft and resulting lee
surface low/trough in place through Wednesday. Gulf moisture/dryline
surging westward into the far eastern plains this morning will be
short-lived as southwest winds develop and push the low level Gulf
moisture back into west TX by mid morning. Breezy to locally windy
condtions will develop once again all areas today. A near carbon
copy remains on track for Tuesday. Main difference between today and
Tuesday is soil and dead fine fuel moisture levels from recent rains
are expected to drop by Tuesday afternoon. Left fire weather watch
as is to let day shift have one more look at the 0-10cm soil
By Wedesday, the southern portion of the above mentioned trough
swings east into AZ. Mid and high level clouds increase across
northern NM Wednesday afternoon. GFS hints at the potential for mid
and high clouds across southeast NM as well. Held off on a fire
weather watch for Wednesday given the cloud cover potential but all
other critical fire weather thresholds will likely be met across the
eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF agree that the
upper level trough/closed low will move eastward across northern NM
Thursday. Cooler temperatures along with higher RH values result,
especially across the northwest half of the state. GFS and ECMWF
bring wrap-around showers and thunderstorms across the northern
mountains Thursday afternoon and evening.
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement for Friday into the weekend.
Both models bring a relatively moist zonal flow overhead Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms favor the northern and western mountains
Friday. The flow aloft backs ahead of another closed low over the
PACNW Saturday, possibly enough to draw the dryline far enough west
to get convection going across the eastern plains. Ventilation rates
remain excellent areawide during the next seven days.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.