Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 162334 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with light winds to persist through the TAF period.
Smoke may limit vsbys at KSAF Saturday morning, but Forecaster
confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. More than likely
and limitations would still be VFR (6-9SM).

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal temperatures again today and Saturday with near
110 forecast for portions of the southeast plains Saturday. A
backdoor front will bring some relief from the hot temperatures over
the eastern half of the state Sunday. The increase in surface
moisture behind the front will help increase the chance for afternoon
storms off the higher terrain Sunday through the early part of next
week. High pressure builds over New Mexico raising the temperatures
back to the 90s and triple digits by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry and hot conditions continue today and Saturday, with RH
at or below 5 percent at ABQ Sunport since late this morning. Smokey
and hazy conditions are likely again Saturday morning in the middle
to upper RGV from the Bonita and Cajete fires. Saturday will see near
record high temps over all of NM, with record highs likely broken
over portions of the SE plains and parts of the middle Rio Grande
Valley south of Los Lunas.

A backdoor front will sweep down through the eastern plains overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, pushing gusty winds through the gaps of
the central mtn chain during the morning hours. This will cool
temperatures a good 15 to 20 degrees over the eastern plains with
5-10 degrees in the Rio Grande Valley. Sfc moisture will increase
with the passage of the front pushing as far west as the Continental
Divide. This will help produce some afternoon tstm activity off the
higher terrain Sunday and into the middle of next week...with less
coverage with each passing day. Thunderstorms west of the ctrl mtn
chain will likely be dry with strong downburst winds.

High pressure builds over AZ this weekend shifting more over NM next
week. Models continue to show a more robust high than this past week
with 500 mb hgts at 594-597 dm. As it does so, temperatures will
quickly rebound after Sunday`s brief reprieve from record high temps.
90s and triple digits will be back on tap over much of NM by
Tuesday. The GFS and ECM both hint at another backdoor front sliding
under the eastern periphery of the upper ridge next weekend,
potentially enhancing precipitation chances and lowering temps over
the eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CONTINUED EXCEPTIONALLY DRY...UNSTABLE AND HOT WITH NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A very dry and unstable air mass will continue over northern and
central New Mexico through Saturday, with widespread and prolonged
single digit relative humidities. Poor overnight humidity recoveries
will continue tonight west and central, with some return moisture
again impacting the east early Saturday morning, leading to better
recoveries there. It will be hot again Saturday with widespread near
record to record heat. Haines of 6 all areas Saturday with embedded
areas of super Haines forecast, mostly south of i-40.

A cold front will plow into the eastern plains Saturday night and
bring a brief respite from some of the heat and dryness. Then a
reinforcement of cooler air and low level moisture is expected for
Sunday night. Gusty north to northeast winds to 45 or 50 mph are
possible with the initial surge down the plains Saturday night/early
Sunday, and a gusty east wind into the RGV will commence early
Sunday. The cooler and more moist air should reach the Continental
Divide Sunday night. Highs Sunday will range from 5 to 20 degrees
cooler central and east, while the far west will see little change.
Minimum humidities Sunday will be higher, breaking the extended
string of single digit relative humidity days, except near the AZ
border. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast
Sunday afternoon and evening, over mainly the northern higher
terrain in the afternoon, but expanding into the northeast highlands
and plains and western high terrain Sunday evening. Storms over the
west Sunday evening will be mostly dry.

Temperatures will again be on the rise early next week with New
Mexico back in the oven for the middle and latter portions of next
week with near record or record highs possible again. Instability
will be strong and widespread with Haines of 6 and areas of Super
Haines. Enough moisture looks to be trapped under a strengthening
ridge to  produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection over the higher terrain and east Monday and Tuesday, with
chances for wetting rain diminishing by Wednesday/Thursday. Some of
the storms west and central could be dry with strong and gusty
winds. A stronger front may impact the east late next week, bringing
another reprieve from the heat.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ534>538.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ534-538.

&&

$$

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