Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181136 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TODAY AS WEDGE OF
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTED ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AFT 18Z. BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS
DUE TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN MICROBURSTS. KGUP/KLVS/KSAF ARE FAVORED TAF SITES FOR
IMPACTS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EAST SHOULD SEE MORE
ACTIVITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE REGION WETS UP. HOWEVER...INCREASING
MODEL VARIABILITY IS ERODING CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION OF THE
WETTER PATTERN...AND SOME DRYING COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FORECAST...WITH INDICATIONS FOR EITHER A WET OR DRIER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DIDN/T MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS PACKAGE DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ECMWF
CONTINUES IT/S TREND OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER POPS MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH
IT WOBBLES THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS IS WETTER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND
FORECAST REMAINS SLANTED TOWARDS IT/S SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...POPS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS MORE SQUARELY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE
WEST...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE AS
THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...SHOVING THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST AND CENTRAL FALL
TO AVERAGE OR BELOW...WHILE THE EAST REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO IMPACT THE FORECAST. HOW
THEY HANDLE KARINA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12-E AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACNW AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
COULD LEAD TO JUST A QUICK SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...OR
A MORE SUSTAINED WETTER PERIOD. THE VARIABILITY EXTENDS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF POPS NOW INDICATING A WET
WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME DRYING AT LEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. OPINION IS THAT IF THE MOISTURE SURGE
ARRIVES...IT WON/T BE SO QUICK TO LEAVE. ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IN
THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST IS LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD TODAY...CENTERING
ITSELF SOMEWHERE NEAR ABQ BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THUS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MIX
OUT INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST AREAS. THUS...ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. LIKE
YESTERDAY...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FAVORED FOR STORMS. STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK...THUS STORMS MAY NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL. IN
FACT...THE LACK OF WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF POOR
VENTILATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NW AREAS. TODAY
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NW NM AS WELL AS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE AREA WIDE. TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

AFTER TODAY...ALL EYES WILL THEN BE ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NOW SLIDING DOWN THE OREGON COASTLINE. BY TUESDAY
AFTN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
BE NW OF LOS ANGELES CA AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER ABQ WILL SHIFT WELL
EASTWARD. THE LOW WILL HELP DRAW UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE...INITIALLY
INTO AZ MONDAY...THEN INTO WESTERN NM TUESDAY. THUS...AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST
TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL JUMP 10 TO 30 PERCENT TUES AFTN ACROSS
THE WEST COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED
LITTLE...STILL NEAR LOS ANGELES...BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...EXPECT MOST STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WETTING RAIN...HOW
SIGNIFICANT THE RAINFALL WILL BE ON TUES/WED IS IN QUESTION AS
THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH AND TEMPS
WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD...BELOW NORMAL IN FACT.

MODELS DIFFERENCES REALLY START TO CROP UP STARTING THURSDAY. THE
GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STAYING SOMEWHAT CONNECTED TO THE MAIN
WESTERLY FLOW...THUS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO AZ.
THE LOW ON THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...AND THUS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA. THE DIFFERENCE IN POSITION WILL
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS
DRAWN UP INTO NM.  WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE STORMS AROUND
REGARDLESS OF POSITION DUE TO MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER INFLUX OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...AS WELL AS FROM NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12-E...ALLOWING FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS. THESE DIFFERENCES ONLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW VIA THE GFS GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE
WESTERLIES AND REMNANT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NM...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD STORMS WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS A CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALI...AND STORMS FAVORING THE WEST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE LOW/TROUGH OVER NM UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TO SUM IT UP...THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE TUE/WED.
THEN...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF SAID MOISTURE. PAST EXPERIENCE WOULD
SUGGEST THE GFS IS MOVING THE LOW EASTWARD TOO QUICKLY. THE TIMING
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE IMPACTS ON BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS EACH DAY THAT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










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