Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 110947
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong upper level high pressure over the Great Basin will extend
southeastward across NM today, bringing another day of above normal
temperatures to the state. A weak backdoor cold front will move into
the northeastern plains late this afternoon and into central NM
tonight. Slightly cooler air is expected behind the front Tuesday,
but temperatures will still be well above normal. Backdoor cold
fronts late Wednesday and Thursday will lower temperatures back to
near normal by Thursday. High pressure aloft will build across NM
Friday, returning temperatures to above normal. Though the high
pressure is expected to weaken Saturday through Monday, dry west flow
aloft will keep temperatures above normal through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of upper high pressure in the Great Basin will extend
southeastward across NM today, keeping a dry and warm air mass across
the state. High temperatures today will be 5 to 15 degrees above
normal with very dry dewpoints in the single digits to low teens. A
weak backdoor cold front will push across the northeastern plains
this afternoon and into central NM this evening. The front will have
only minor impacts with slight cooling Tuesday, and high
temperatures still well above normal. A couple stronger shortwaves
will move through the central plains states Wednesday and Thursday.
Backdoor cold fronts associated with these systems will move across
eastern and central NM Wednesday afternoon and evening and again
Thursday afternoon and evening. Both fronts will be dry, but the
front on Thursday will bring a reinforcing push of cooler air and
slightly higher relative humidity to the eastern plains. Wednesday
high temperatures will stay above normal, yet highs Thursday will
fall back to near normal.

A ridge to the west will build eastward across NM Friday, while a
weak lee surface trough will form across northeastern NM and
eastern CO. Under the ridge, temperatures will once again be above
normal, while west to west southwest winds will become breezy east of
the central mountains and south of I-40. A series of weak upper level
low pressure systems will move well north of NM Saturday through
Monday, causing the ridge aloft to flatten out. The resultant west
flow aloft will keep the region dry with above normal temperatures.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An extremely dry atmosphere continues across the area with the 00Z
KABQ upper air sounding showing a PWAT of 0.05", which is well below
normal. Today will be similar overall to yesterday, with mostly
light winds and poor vent rates. A weak backdoor front will push
down the Eastern Plains and provide a few degrees of cooling going
into Tuesday, however daytime temperatures will persist above normal
with poor vent rates.

A stronger cold front is forecast to push through Thursday bringing
some cooling and increased moisture, but with little to no chance
for wetting precipitation. Look for the cool down to be short-lived
with a warming trend going into next weekend. Vent rates should
trend up as well from Friday into the weekend, especially across the
Eastern Plains, as the westerlies increase across the region.
Looking beyond the weekend, the 00Z medium range model solutions are
offering little hope for wetting precipitation with the jet stream
remaining north of New Mexico through the 20th of this month.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. High clouds will
continue to stream across the southern half to two-thirds of NM
through Monday afternoon before decreasing. A northerly drainage wind
at KSAF is expected by sunrise Monday and will persist thru
approximately 18Z. Gusts near 25 or 30kt are possible. A weak back
door front is also expected Monday, which will switch winds around
to the northeast across the plains. The front may squeak through the
gaps of the central mountain chain to produce a northeast or easterly
light gap wind at KSAF and KABQ Monday evening.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  13  52  15 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  54  12  55  15 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  54  19  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  54   6  58   8 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  56   3  57   4 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  54  10  55  11 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  16  57  18 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  62  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  53  13  52  14 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  54  27  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  56  21  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  16  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  45  12  45  15 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  50   4  49   7 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  54   6  53   9 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  57  20  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  58  25  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  53  26  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  55  23  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  28  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  29  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  23  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  14  55  15 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  26  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  25  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  22  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  53  20  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  13  56  14 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  56  23  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  56  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  59  28  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  61  25  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  57  18  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  59  17  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  62  18  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  59  22  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  24  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  61  21  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  64  27  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  25  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  65  23  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  28  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  22  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  64  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  31  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  62  28  55  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

28


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.