Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 102116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
AND WEST BEGINNING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAYS PROGRESS. WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE
BEHIND IT LEADING TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CURRENTLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. PER THE HRRR...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO WANE INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHER MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UP FROM THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE.

FOR FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY THE SAME. THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE STATE WITH THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY ARE AGAIN THE CENTRAL AND WEST. STEERING
FLOWS WILL BE LIGHT LEADING TO A THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
WITH MOST LOCATIONS 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
KEEPING THAT AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL.

THINGS WILL START TO GET INTERESTING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO GET PUSHED TO THE WEST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
INCREASE BEHIND IT. OUR MONSOONAL TAP WILL BE SHIFTED INTO
BORDERING STATES BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AREAWIDE.

21

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE...WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED MOST ZONES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...EXTENDED MODELS SUPPORT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN MOST ZONES.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD OR EXCELLENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION MOST COMMON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AT LEAST AN INCH ALL ZONES.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY SMALL
FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAIN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...LOCAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME WILL DRIFT
TO THE WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN A PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THUS...FEW
CHANGES FOR FRIDAY WITH WETTING RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST AND NORTH WITH POSSIBLY A BIT MORE OF THE EAST REMAINING
DRY.

BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH
CENTER REMAINING EAST OF THE STATE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE WORKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MONSOON
TAP...AND WETTING RAIN CONTINUES TO FAVOR WESTERN...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AS PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OPPORTUNITY
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK FRONT MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS ON SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS INDICATES A STRONGER FRONT WILL
USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS TIMING. WITH THE PATTERN IN
PLACE...AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...
MOIST EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST...AND
AT LEAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON TUESDAY..WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
BACK DOOR FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...THE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ALL ZONES.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS...INITIALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN.
WESTERN AREAS TO SEE EARLY DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORM MOVEMENT TO
THE NORTH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...MOVEMENT WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN...STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT TO THE SOUTH.
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT MOST WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BOUNDARY
INTERACTION THUNDERSTORMS...THUS CARRYING A TEMPO AT KABQ LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TO REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  92  65  94 /  30  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  50  87  49  90 /  30  30  30  30
CUBA............................  56  85  56  86 /  40  50  50  50
GALLUP..........................  60  87  58  89 /  30  20  30  40
EL MORRO........................  56  80  55  81 /  30  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  58  85  56  87 /  30  40  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  58  83 /  40  50  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  57  88  56  89 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  48  80  47  82 /  40  50  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  64  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
PECOS...........................  58  80  57  80 /  40  50  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  80  54  81 /  40  50  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  48  72  47  72 /  40  70  50  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  77  40  76 /  30  60  50  50
TAOS............................  53  84  52  84 /  30  30  30  30
MORA............................  55  80  53  79 /  50  50  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  61  89  61  89 /  30  30  30  20
SANTA FE........................  63  82  61  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  88  60  89 /  30  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  88  67  90 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  90  69  91 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  91  66  93 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  93  68  94 /  30  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  93  63  94 /  30  30  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  69  93  68  94 /  30  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  72  94  69  95 /  20  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  64  87  62  89 /  30  50  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  64  86  62  88 /  30  50  30  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  84  55  84 /  30  30  30  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  83  57  83 /  30  30  30  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  85  61  86 /  30  20  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  86  63  87 /  20  20  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  82  53  81 /  20  30  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  62  85  60  81 /  20  40  30  40
RATON...........................  62  87  58  84 /  20  20  30  20
SPRINGER........................  61  89  60  87 /  30  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  83  55  82 /  40  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  67  92  65  91 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  64  87  61  85 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  69  93  67  92 /  10   5  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  67  89  64  88 /  20  10  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  93  67  93 /  10   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  88  62  88 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  90  64  90 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  90  65  90 /  10   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  68  91  66  90 /   5   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  63  85  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELK.............................  59  80  55  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





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