Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202359 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A return flow of low level moisture will begin to advect
into the forecast area from the southeast around sunrise Sunday
morning. This fetch will probably result in low clouds with MVFR
condtions from the Caprock southward and from the Pecos River Valley
eastward. Disagreement among model surface humidity progs gives only
moderate confidence that low clouds will reach ROW. If they do, it
looks like that will happen shortly after sunrise and could linger
through the morning. The moisture could spark some showers and
thunderstorms along the central mountain chain Sunday afternoon.
These would travel northeastward onto the adjacent high plains,
possibly reaching LVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another cool night is expected tonight with dry air, light winds,
and clear skies. Temperatures will warm closer to normal all areas
Sunday. Moisture seeping into eastern NM will focus a few showers
and storms mainly along and east of the Pecos Valley. Moisture will
continue increasing over eastern NM Monday and make way for even
better coverage of showers and storms. Central and western NM will
remain very pleasant with temperatures near normal. A back door cold
front will shift southwest into eastern NM Tuesday and serve as a
focus mechanism for more showers and storms. A few of these may
become strong to severe. Warm, dry, and breezy weather will return
Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low that brought well below
normal temperatures, rain, snow, and thunderstorms to NM pulling
eastward into the Great Plains. Freezing temperatures from this
morning have rebounded nicely into the 60s and 70s. Any remnant
clouds today will dissipate this evening and make way for another
chilly night under clear skies and light winds. Went below guidance
on low temps as surface dewpoints are shown to remain in the teens
over much of central and western NM.

Sunday will feature more very pleasant weather from the Rio Grande
Valley westward with high temperatures warming closer to seasonal
averages. A 1023mb surface high shifting east across Oklahoma will
increase return flow over eastern NM Sunday. 12Z models continue to
develop isolated showers and storms east of the central mt chain and
the D2 SPC outlook shows a marginal risk for severe storms east of
the Pecos Valley. Low level moisture increases even further into
Monday while a 70-80kt 300mb jet max moves east across southern NM
and the Permian Basin. The D3 SPC outlook shows a slight risk area
along the TX state line with the marginal risk back to the Pecos
Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms may come Monday
night as a reinforcing shot of northwest flow aloft helps drive a
potent back door cold front south across eastern NM. The 12Z/18Z
models are faster and stronger with the frontal passage which may
make it through the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning. Showers and
storms will be possible again Tuesday but coverage may be limited
by increasing stability behind the front.

Models diverge Wednesday however there is general agreement on an
upper ridge approaching from the west. The 18Z NAM shows a high
amplitude ridge with continued north/northwest flow aloft over NM
while the GFS shows a more consolidated ridge cresting eastward
through Thursday. Nonetheless, temperatures will warm closer to
normal through the end of next week.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper level low that brought wetting precipitation and much
cooler temperatures to the state is currently over the Central US
Plains and continuing to pull away. In it`s wake, unusually cold
morning lows and good to excellent humidity recovery will be
replaced with a warming/drying trend under dry northwest flow. After
a dip in vent rates today, improvement is forecast Sunday with
improved mixing and warmer daytime temperatures. Gulf moisture
advection early Sunday across eastern New Mexico will be sufficient
to spark a few wetting showers storms by late afternoon along a
sharpening dryline between the South Central Mountains, East Central
Highlands/Plains up to the Northeast Plains. Low level moisture will
spread west to the Central Mountain Chain late Sunday, bringing good
to excellent humidity recovery with it. Across western New Mexico,
the warming/drying trend will persist with worsening recovery and
increasing Haines indices. This trend looks to persist through the
forecast period. Another round of storms is forecast Monday across
the east along a dryline, then across the Northeast Plains with a
backdoor front. This front will progress southwest through the
Central Mountain Chain Monday night, bringing improved recovery into
the Rio Grande Valley. However, this moisture will mix-out Tuesday
afternoon with any shot at wetting precipitation being confined to
areas along/east of the Central Mountain Chain.

A ridge of high pressure will move overhead Wednesday and be
replaced with moderate westerlies and a Pacific dry air intrusion on
Thu/Fri. Dry air is forecast to overtake the entire area Thu/Fri,
with temperatures generally at or above normal, Haines 6, some
single digit minimum humidity and well above normal mixing heights.
All of the ingredients will be in place for critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area Thu/Fri, but fuels may not be
capable of supporting large fire growth due to green-up and recent
precipitation. Will assess as we get closer given warm/dry
conditions across western New Mexico leading up to Thu/Fri.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with one exception.
Gulf moisture advection across the Southeast Plains early Sunday
morning may result in MVFR conditions in low stratus at KROW after
12Z, with improvement potentially delayed until around/after 18Z.
There is some potential for MVFR conditions at KTCC as well, but
forecaster confidence to low to include in TAF. Otherwise, expect
mostly light winds.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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