Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 112205
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies will be clear east of the central mountains tonight with
temperatures slightly below normal. To the west clouds will increase
after midnight, keeping low temperatures above normal. A low
pressure system in the Great Basin will move to the south Monday and
Monday night, and a stream of subtropical moisture will move across
northwestern New Mexico. Heavy snowfall will be possible Monday and
Monday night across the northwest mountains with up to a foot of new
snow in the higher elevations. Southwest flow aloft Monday through
Wednesday will result in above normal temperatures across most of
central and northern New Mexico. As the low pressure system begins to
move eastward across southern California Wednesday night and
Thursday, higher chances of rain and elevation snow are expected
across New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough in northern CA/northwestern NV this evening
will move southward tonight through Tuesday morning. Models are
showing that this system will tap into subtropical moisture off the
coast of southern CA. Skies will remain mostly clear across the
eastern half of NM tonight, while clouds on the eastern extreme of
the plume of subtropical moisture will move across the western half
of the state. Generally light winds and clear skies across the
eastern half of NM will cause overnight low temperatures to be
slightly below normal. The clouds to the west will keep overnight
lows well above normal. Light precipitation could begin as early as
09Z Monday morning in northwestern NM, but models show deeper layer
moisture not moving into the area until after 15Z. Ample moisture and
strong upslope flow Monday and Monday night will bring significant
snowfall to the northwest mountains with elevations above 9000 feet
receiving around 12 inches of snowfall by Tuesday morning. Chama
could see as much as 4 inches. A winter storm watch has been issued
for the northwest mountains for Monday and Monday night.

Drier southwest flow will begin Tuesday morning through Wednesday
early afternoon with high temperatures well above normal both days.
As the upper level trough west of southern CA ejects eastward
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, increasing moisture and mid-
level dynamics will move across NM. Prospects for widespread
precipitation are looking more likely with high snow levels
Wednesday night through Thursday, ranging from around 8000 feet in
western NM to 9500 feet in eastern NM. A backdoor cold front is
expected to move into eastern NM Thursday night and continue
southwestward Friday across central NM Friday. The GFS solution shows
another trough in southern CA/western AZ Friday and a plume of
subtropical moisture to the east of the trough across central and
eastern NM. The ECMWF shows a trough moving rapidly across northern
NM Friday, which pushes the plume of subtropical moisture to the
south and east of NM. The GFS solution would allow the backdoor cold
front to interact with the increasing moisture from the southwest,
and bring significant rain and elevation snow to NM. The ECMWF is a
dry scenario for NM.

There are significant differences in the GFS and ECMWF next weekend,
but both models generally support a drying and warming trend.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Our snow event had ended as the short wave trough has moved east of
NM. Not much break before the next system starts to impact northwest
NM late tonight. The storm in the pacific Northwest will dive south
and deepen into a closed low over CA Monday. The flow aloft will
turn southwest with a decent slug of mid level moisture moving
northeast across NM tonight into Monday. This will generate some
precipitation across the northwest late tonight into Tuesday, with
the main impact over the Tusas/San Juan Mountains. The highest
elevations could receive around a foot of snow. It will become
breezy to windy across the west and northeast Monday. RH recoveries
tonight will be good to excellent. Vent rates Monday will be fair to
good in the east and very good to excellent in the west. Vent rates
Tuesday will be mostly good or better, except some poor rates across
the east central plains. Temperatures will trend up Monday and
Tuesday, and be above normal everywhere by Tuesday.

The CA storm will retrograde southwest off the coast Tuesday before
coming back onshore in southern CA late Wednesday. It will quickly
lift northeast and weaken while another storm in the northwest U.S.
dives south to replace it. That system will swing through Friday or
Saturday, depending on which model you prefer. So what does this
mean for our weather? Rain will develop in the Gila Region Wednesday
and spread north and east Wednesday night, with snow confined to the
western and northern high terrain. Rain and high mountain snow will
continue Thursday. A potent back door cold front will race south
across the eastern plains Thursday night and spill into the Rio
Grande Valley Friday morning, with snow levels dropping sharply.
Precipitation will diminish Friday and should be mostly or all over
by next weekend.

The only critical fire weather concerns will come on Wednesday as a
surface low develops over southeast CO and brings moderate winds to
northeast NM. Temperatures will continue to warm Wednesday, with min
RH`s dropping to around 15 percent. A couple hours of critical
conditions will be possible Wednesday afternoon across the northeast
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Other than patchy IFR/MVFR cigs through 19z or 20z along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain VFR conditions will prevail
following last night and early this morning snow event. VFR
conditions to continue at most terminals, but rain and mountain snow
will develop late tonight in the northwest, and spread south and east
Monday. KFMN could drop to MVFR cigs and vsbys Monday morning in
rain. MT obscurations will develop late tonight and Monday mainly
over the San Juan/Tusas Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  53  30  55 /  20  40  30   5
Dulce...........................  18  47  28  52 /  20  60  60  20
Cuba............................  22  47  28  52 /  10  20  20   0
Gallup..........................  23  53  22  55 /  10   5  10   0
El Morro........................  21  53  19  55 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  22  55  21  58 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  29  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  35  62  33  64 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  16  41  24  47 /  20  60  70  10
Los Alamos......................  25  48  34  55 /   5  10  10   0
Pecos...........................  21  47  27  54 /  10  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  15  42  24  48 /  10  20  10   0
Red River.......................  13  35  23  39 /  10  20   5   0
Angel Fire......................  12  42  18  46 /  10  10   0   0
Taos............................  15  47  21  53 /   5  20   5   0
Mora............................  17  47  24  55 /   0  10   0   0
Espanola........................  23  55  32  60 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  24  49  31  54 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  22  52  29  57 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  56  33  59 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  29  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  24  59  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  26  57  32  60 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  20  60  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  28  56  36  60 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  30  62  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  25  51  32  57 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  52  31  57 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  55  23  61 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  21  50  25  56 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  25  53  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  28  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  26  53  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  17  43  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  14  46  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  17  49  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  18  46  22  57 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  20  46  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  20  44  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  24  52  28  65 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  23  51  25  64 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  24  54  27  65 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  22  50  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  22  51  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  22  51  23  60 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  25  56  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  24  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  25  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
for the following zones... NMZ510.

&&

$$



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