Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272358 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
458 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
The second in a series of Pacific disturbances has taken aim on
N/C NM. Bands of generally -SN have broken out across NW and NC
areas and will sag southward as the overnight progresses. More TAF
sites are expected to be impacted versus this mornings precip
event. This means VIS/CIG restrictions. Following the snow band
passage...CIGS and VIS could improve some but then lower back into
a restriction category. LIFR/IFR and MVFR conditions are all
expected for several hrs. GUP is the most likely candidate to be
impacted...then FMN/AEG/ABQ/SAF. Downsloping will reduce the
possible impacts at LVS/TCC and ROW. Wind will once again be a
aviation hazard on Monday. Peak winds between 17z to 22z with
gusts 30-45 kt at many of the terminal sites. Suspect AWW speeds
will once again be met at ABQ Mon afternoon.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another upper level disturbance will dive east southeastward over
New Mexico tonight with a few to near 6 inches of snow over the
continental divide region and western mountains. Some models even
depict around 1 inch of snow in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe
areas, which should arrive just in time to impact morning
commutes. The third in the series of upper level troughs Monday
night and Tuesday will target the northern mountains and
continental divide region with a few to several inches of snow
coming mostly Monday night. There will be a break in the weather
mid week, but temperatures will remain cold. Yet another storm
system may bring another round of wintry precipitation with a
strong back door cold front Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad longwave trough has carved out a foothold over the western
US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. The first
shortwave in a series impacted the northern mountains into today
with accumulating snow and wind. Strong winds will linger in the
northern mountains tonight where another inch or two of snow will
be possible. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for Snow
and Blowing Snow there until 5 am. We will also issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for Snow from Cuba to the Chuska Mountains and
southward for the second in the series of upper level troughs.
NAM12, GFS20, RAP13 and HRRR...all trusted mesoscale
models...depict a band of snow forming from eastern AZ eastward
to the Chuska and Jemez Mountains this evening. This band is
forecast to drop southward over the I-40 corridor within a few
hours either side of midnight, before fizzling out during the late
night hours as it pushes into the southwest mountains. This band
could produce an inch to locally 2 inches of snow around the
Albuquerque metro area, and farther south in the middle Rio Grande
Valley.

Monday looks like another windy day with the strongest gusts
around 50 mph along and just east of the central mountain chain.

Recent model runs depict the third shortwave in the series to be
somewhat moisture deprived as it crosses Monday night into
Tuesday. Locations west of the Rio Grande look favored for precip
Monday night. Then, the storm may try to form a closed low that
lingers over the northern mountains and northeast as the back door
cold front arrives on Tuesday. The position of the upper low will
be a major determining factor on how strong the back door cold
front is when it arrives, and how much upslope flow will develop.
It looks like snow will linger through Tuesday in the northern
mountains, and possibly also across northeast areas if the upslope
flow gets strong enough.

At the end of the week an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to drop southward out of the Great Basin over the Baja
Peninsula. This will draw a strong back door cold front into the
state. Since the storm is not heading toward our state, precip
looks to be on the lighter side but it could cover much of the
area Friday into Saturday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cold, unsettled weather has arrived over NM and will significantly
limit any notable fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

The 2nd round of snow is pushing into western NM this afternoon and
will focus several inches along the Cont Dvd and upper Gila region
overnight. A dusting to 1" is even possible in the ABQ/SAF metro.
W/NW winds will remain breezy to locally windy Monday and usher in
even colder air. High temps will be 10-15F below normal. This 2nd
round will help lay some initial snowpack in areas that have yet to
see snow this year.

The 3rd round of snow will pass thru Monday night and increase the
potential for light snow just about anywhere along and west of the
central mt chain. The main focus for accumulations will move back
into the northern mts, thus we are finally beginning to see a more
notable snowpack develop. The coldest temps of the season so far
will shift across the area Tuesday on gusty NW winds. Temps into
Wednesday morning will average single digits to teens in many areas
across the north w/ teens and 20s south and east.

Wednesday and Thursday will be transition days from drier W/NW flow
to improving moist SW flow. Temps will moderate but still be 5 to
10F below normal. Vent rates will deteriorate to poor these two days
with weaker mixing and higher surface pressure over the state. The
next potential winter storm system is on the horizon Thursday night
or Friday but confidence is very low at this time.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ523-526-529-531>534-539.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ515-521-522-524-525-527-528-530-535>537-540.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ512>515-521>524-526-529-532>537-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ502-504>509.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ510>514.

&&

$$
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