000
FXUS65 KABQ 301119
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
419 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE DENSE
LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 1600-1800 UTC BEFORE
FULLY BURNING OFF. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT BREEZES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013...
LATEST GOES IMAGER FOG PRODUCT PICKING UP ON AN AREA OF FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST OF THE DIVIDE TO NEAR GALLUP.
ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IN FREEZING FOG IN THE LATEST KFMN AND
KGUP OBS...LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND SUNRISE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF DENSE
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHEAST ACROSS NW
MEXICO...SOUTHERN AZ AND NM MAKING FOR A TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY. THE UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER THE
NEXT 24-36HRS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL
HANG AROUND AND MOVE ACROSS NM FROM THE NORTHWEST GOING INTO
MONDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST AS NW FLOW
INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS.

WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM NW TO WSW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS WILL TREND UP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS ANOMALOUSLY COLD SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE AND WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS.

TEMPS BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TREND UP. A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A BACKDOOR PUSH DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MAY EVENT HIT
WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN A FEW SPOTS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWING NEAR -20C AT 700MB ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH INTO SATURDAY
WILL DEFINITELY BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

11

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW MORE DAYS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A WINDIER ONE. A
CUT OFF LOW WILL STAY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WITH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REACH SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LOSE SOME STRENGTH BY AFTERNOON...AND THUS
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE MODERATED IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
TODAY. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND STEEP INVERSIONS WILL PRODUCE THE
POOR MIXING AND INEFFICIENT DISPERSION. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FALL
TO 25 TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RECOVERING TO 60 TO
80 PERCENT IN MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND UP TO 80 TO
100 PERCENT IN THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL SLIDE DOWN TOWARD NM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE
SHOULD POSE LITTLE ALTERATIONS TO THE OVERALL WEATHER ELEMENTS.
WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MIXING AND VENTILATION WILL STILL REMAIN POOR. LITTLE
TEMPERATURE VARIATION WILL ALSO BE NOTICED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NM
AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...ENOUGH TO IMPROVE VENTILATION BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY
INTRODUCING SOME NEAR-CRITICAL WINDS. AT THIS TIME FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS ARE BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA...DUE TO SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW. SHOULD MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING. HOWEVER...RH
FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS RESTING JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

COOLER CONDITIONS AND BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING
INTO NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER VENTILATION...BUT NO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS OF RIGHT NOW.

52

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD AHEAD OF UPR LOW OFF SOCAL AND OVR NM.
SFC LEE TROF THRU 30/12Z THEN WK WND SHIFT EXPECTED IN THE ERN
PLNS AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD TO VCNTY KCVS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
FOUR CORNERS/KGUP REGION IN BR/FZFG PRIOR TO 15Z.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$