Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 231730
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTHEAST OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 24/02Z AS SFC LEE TROF
REMAINS IN PLACE. SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. MT TOP WINDS
TO INCREASE AFT 24/02Z AND PERSIST THRU 12Z ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT
POSSIBLE. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THERE AS TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A COLD
FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS
BOTTOMING OUT A FEW TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 KTS AND A DECENT LEE
TROUGH...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REACH AROUND
40 KNOTS FROM LAS VEGAS TO CONCHAS AND CLINES CORNERS. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY FALL A FEW TO 5
DEGREES TUESDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A
LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...INDUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EAST. SINCE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...THAT COULD
SPELL MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES OVER NM FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS FOR WETTING PRECIP POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE ESPECIALLY KEEN ON
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD START ABOVE 9000 FEET UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT WILL REACH NEAR 4500 FEET. THE BETTER
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD BY
THEN...DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES COULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES.

AS THE BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CO INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT COULD SPAWN A FEW MORE
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.

THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE NICE WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S AND 70S. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY...

A TRICKY SET OF VARIABLES TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WX FROM THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO THE SANDIA/MANZANO AND
GALLINAS MTS. WINDS WILL BE PLENTY STRONG FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS
HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WERE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR LARGE AREAS OF THE
ZONES. TOSS UP ISSUE IS THE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
IN THIS AREA ON THE 20-21ST. FARTHER EAST MANY VARIABLES POINT TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WX EVENT TODAY...HOWEVER THIS AREA ALSO RECEIVED DECENT
PRECIP RECENTLY SO THAT MAY HELP MITIGATE FIRE GROWTH.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND EAST
SLOPES AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS
JET MAX DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP TUESDAY HOWEVER WILL HOLD ONTO WATCH FOR ONE MORE CYCLE.
SURFACE WINDS ALSO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK
LOW SO COUPLING MAY NOT BE SO EFFICIENT. TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES. RECOVERIES
LOOK REASONABLY FAIR AS WELL FOR THE EAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE...COLDER AIR...AND WIND SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. LATEST ITERATIONS INDICATE A POSSIBLE STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH MORE WETTING PRECIP FOR THE EAST. GAP WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS COULD BE THE COLDEST IN A
COUPLE WEEKS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.