Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 262138
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
338 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG STREAM OF
MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...WHEN A DOWNTICK IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS...THEN WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THEN WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM AROUND NORMAL IN THE WEST TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
READINGS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY...CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THUNDERSTORM MOTION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNDERWAY TODAY AND TONIGHT IS
DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE
WEST COAST WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA AND AN
EASTERLY WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FORM
AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE US
AND CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO NM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN
GENERALLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REFORM OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING FOR SOME TIME. STORMS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN...EXCEPT PERHAPS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE HIGH SETS UP.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLEETING AS
DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...AND EXCELLENT IN
LOCALES THAT SEE RAINFALL TODAY.

THE MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AND BECOME QUITE ANEMIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY AROUND THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FASTER WITH SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS. HAINES
VALUES AND VENT RATES WILL TREND THE HIGHEST FOR THE WEEK. MIN RH
WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY LOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE BOTH
DAYS. VALUES IN THE 8 TO 12 PERCENT WILL OCCUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF A VERY
STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD THUS LEADING TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL WHILE VENT RATES DETERIORATE TO
THE FAIR AND POOR CATEGORIES. VERY WET CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY NOW
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND STORM
MOTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A NORTH TO SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS WILL FORCE
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN SOUTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STEEP TERRAIN AND BURN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED ONCE
AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES APPEAR TO TAKE OVER BY SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS A HEALTHY SOURCE OF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NM BENEATH THE UPPER HIGH. VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AS WELL
AS DETERIORATED VENTILATION. THE WEST WILL BE FAVORED IN THIS FLOW
REGIME. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERFORMING POORLY THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS SO CHANGES ARE LIKELY
TO ALTER THIS SCENARIO SOMEWHAT.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY BREAKING OUT AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THRU 21Z. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE N/NE NEAR 10KTS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. STORMS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LCL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MVFR CIGS/
VSBYS REDUCTIONS FROM DIRECT HITS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE
CONT DVD WILL FAVOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHRA/TSRA WILL CLUSTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT MAY ALSO SLIDE DOWN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FROM CONVECTION OVER COLORADO LATE TONIGHT...
WHICH MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHRA OVERNIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KTCC.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  91  54  91 /  10   5   0   5
DULCE...........................  52  85  44  85 /  30  10   5   5
CUBA............................  55  83  50  85 /  40  20   5  10
GALLUP..........................  55  89  51  90 /  10   5   5   5
EL MORRO........................  50  85  49  86 /  20  10   5  10
GRANTS..........................  56  87  55  88 /  30   5   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  54  83  53  82 /  20  10  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  88  56  88 /  20   5  10  20
CHAMA...........................  51  78  45  77 /  40  20   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  84  60  85 /  50  20   5  20
PECOS...........................  59  82  53  83 /  60  30  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  76  51  77 /  40  20  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  48  66  41  66 /  50  30  10  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  68  45  69 /  60  50  10  50
TAOS............................  56  81  48  83 /  40  20   5  10
MORA............................  56  81  52  79 /  60  40  10  50
ESPANOLA........................  61  89  54  89 /  50  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  62  83  59  84 /  50  20   5  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  87  56  88 /  50  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  90  62  91 /  60  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  91  66  92 /  50   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  94  63  95 /  40   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  97  65  97 /  50   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  93  62  94 /  40  10   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  66  95  64  95 /  50   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  66  93  64  94 /  30  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  86  59  87 /  70  30   5  10
TIJERAS.........................  62  88  58  90 /  70  20   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  86  53  88 /  50  20  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  82  58  84 /  60  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  85  60  87 /  40  30  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  90  62  90 /  30  20  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  62  80  58  79 /  30  50  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  60  86  57  81 /  40  30  10  30
RATON...........................  59  88  55  86 /  30  30  10  30
SPRINGER........................  60  89  57  87 /  40  30  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  58  84  54  85 /  40  30  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  66  96  65  93 /  20  10  10  20
ROY.............................  64  90  61  86 /  30  20  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  70  97  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  69  96  66  96 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  71  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  69  95  67  94 /  10  10  10  20
PORTALES........................  71  97  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  98  69  97 /  10  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  20
PICACHO.........................  65  92  63  93 /  10  30  20  30
ELK.............................  64  84  60  84 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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