437
FXUS65 KABQ 072343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of New
  Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and storms
  with gusty winds and little rainfall may develop along the
  Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley each afternoon, but
  most areas will remain dry and hot with increasing risk for
  heat-related illnesses. There is a high chance of temperatures
  topping 100 degrees in the Rio Grande Valley as well as the Four
  Corners region Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. This includes the
  Albuquerque metro area. Heat advisories may need to be issued
  for the potentially dangerous heat.

- Daily showers and storms will develop near the central mountain
  chain and high plains of eastern New Mexico through the end of
  the week. A few storms may be strong with gusty winds, hail,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall today and
  Tuesday. The risk for flash flooding will remain high today
  around Ruidoso.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area was cancelled early. There
is still a low chance of storms in the area between now and 9PM
(as shown by the HRRR), however most models are showing light
rainfall rates, if any so the flash flood risk remains low.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Upper level ridge remains over the AZ/NM border and Gila Forest
region today allowing for NW flow aloft over N and NE part of the
state. SPC marginal risk looks on track with best deep layer shear
over these areas. Some of these areas had been worked over by
convection yesterday so slowly recovering moisture and
instability. There is already some convection in the northern
mountains and expect more activity to develop over the Highlands
in the better storm environment. That said...any storms that do
develop will most likely pulse in intensity with the potential for
reaching severe levels briefly with hail and straight line wind
gusts from outflows. Outflows will likely also trigger new
convection but deep layer shear may not be strong enough to really
organize convection other than what can form along a boundary.

Storms are also initiating in the higher terrain of the Sacramento
Mountains and already getting burn scar flash flooding in
Ruidoso, NM mainly along US 70. Flash Flood Watch is in effect for
these areas through the evening hours.

Tomorrow the upper level ridge should get stronger over AZ/NM
border and over the Continental Divide. This may limit convection
a bit more tomorrow outside of the higher terrain areas which may
have enough left over moisture for isolated activity. Another
flood watch may be needed for the Sacramento Mountains tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The upper level ridge becomes much more robust with 500 mb heights
reaching the 90th percentile of climatology for the NA ensemble.
Most ensembles are latching on to heights near 598dm by 12Z
Wednesday which should limit convection even more on Wednesday.
This also ramps up the heat and probabilities of high temps
greater than 100 are increasing across much of the RGV. This
includes the ABQ metro area where heat risk may be getting up
into the major category. Heat advisories will most likely be
needed in a lot of these areas and possibly in the NW for areas
like Farmington. Wednesday/Thursday have the highest chances of
needing heat advisories.

Thursday into the weekend the ridge does flatten with a short
wave trough moving over top it across the Rockies. The ridge
builds over California by the end of the week with increasing NW
flow aloft over northern NM. This may bring some drier air into
the region and we will need to look at fire weather concerns
especially over the Four Corners and N NM. Winds may be borderline
enough to not meet critical fire weather conditions but it will
be closely watch considering the Laguna Fire in southern Rio
Arriba County.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Isolated storms continue to trek eastward across eastern NM as of
00Z while most storms in central and eastern areas have already
dissipated. Recent hi-res model runs tend to show storms hitting
both KTCC and KROW, although storms will generally last an hour or
less. Fog and low clouds are unlikely tonight given south to
southwest winds across eastern NM, but if anything did develop it
would likely be in the southeast plains.

Tomorrow`s crop of convection will be more isolated than today`s,
favoring the central mountain chain eastward. Little to no
convection is expected west of the Continental Divide due to a
dry air intrusion from the northwest and increased subsidence
underneath the upper-level high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

THe chances of elevated to critical fire weather conditions look
to increase through the end of the week mainly over NW NM and Four
Corners. There has not been much precipitation in this area so
ERCs are reaching 75-95 percentiles or dry fuel moisture. Minimum
relative humidity look to drop below 10 percent in many areas
Thursday into Friday. Winds will be the main issue on whether
critical conditions will be met and closely monitored. Red Flag
warnings may be needed during this time. These conditions could
also be an issue for the suppression of the Laguna Fire.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  97  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  93  47  94 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  57  92  57  93 /   5   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  53  94  53  96 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  57  91  58  93 /  10   5   0  10
Grants..........................  55  94  55  96 /  10   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  58  92  59  94 /  20  10  10  20
Magdalena.......................  64  92  65  93 /  20  10   5  20
Datil...........................  60  89  60  91 /  20  10   5  20
Reserve.........................  56  98  58 100 /  30  20  10  30
Glenwood........................  63 102  63 103 /  30  30  20  40
Chama...........................  48  86  49  88 /   5   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  61  88  62  88 /  10  10   5  10
Pecos...........................  57  87  58  88 /  20  20  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  55  87  56  89 /  10  20   5  10
Red River.......................  46  78  47  80 /  10  20   5  20
Angel Fire......................  40  80  41  82 /  20  30   5  20
Taos............................  52  89  54  91 /  10  10   5  10
Mora............................  50  83  52  85 /  20  30  10  20
Espanola........................  60  97  62  97 /  10  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  61  90  62  91 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  60  93  61  94 /  10  10   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  97  70  98 /  20   5  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  99  68  99 /  10   0   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  67 101  67 101 /  10   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  99  68 100 /  10   0   5   0
Belen...........................  65  99  65 100 /  10   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  66 100  67 101 /  10   5   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  64  99  65 100 /  10   0   5   0
Corrales........................  67 100  67 101 /  10   5   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  66  99  66 100 /  10   0   5   0
Placitas........................  66  95  67  96 /  10   5   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  66  99  67 100 /  10   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  69 101  70 102 /  10   5  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  91  60  92 /  20  10   5  10
Tijeras.........................  62  92  62  93 /  20  10   5  10
Edgewood........................  56  92  57  93 /  10  10   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  92  55  93 /  20  10   5  10
Clines Corners..................  56  85  57  87 /  20  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  59  90  58  92 /  20  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  59  91 /  20  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  66  92  65  93 /  20  30  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  60  84  58  83 /  20  50   5  30
Capulin.........................  53  81  56  86 /  40  30   5  10
Raton...........................  53  87  56  90 /  30  30   5  10
Springer........................  54  88  57  91 /  30  30   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  86  55  88 /  20  30   5  20
Clayton.........................  61  88  63  92 /  50  10  10   5
Roy.............................  58  85  60  88 /  40  30   5   5
Conchas.........................  64  92  65  96 /  40  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  62  91 /  30  20  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  90  63  93 /  40  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  66  92  65  93 /  30  20  20   0
Portales........................  66  93  65  93 /  30  20  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  93  65  94 /  20  20  10   0
Roswell.........................  71  97  70  96 /  20  20  10   0
Picacho.........................  64  91  63  92 /  30  40   5  10
Elk.............................  61  89  60  89 /  10  40   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...16