Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 231727
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE ERODING AWAY OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND THE LAST FEW FRAGMENTS SHOULD HAVE FULLY DISSAPPEARED
BY 23/1900UTC. BATCHES OF NEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS...MOSTLY OF THE FAIR WEATHER VARIETY AS IT
APPEARS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUT THE KIBOSH ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...940 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRST PERIOD SKY FORECAST TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW SUITE OF
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...444 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TRICKY FOG/LOW CLOUD FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH A MODERATE CHANCE AT
AIRPORTS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL ON FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL AT
KFMN...BUT JUST ENOUGH MID CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE KEEPING THE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD A LITTLE HIGHER THERE. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
NM FM THE W SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOOK FOR GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN DUE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NM. THE DRYING TREND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTH INTO WESTERN
NM SUNDAY AND OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES WITH A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN HAVE A DEEPER AND SLOWER
TROUGH...DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW FOR A WHILE TO OUR NORTHWEST. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND MILDER TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CREATE PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.

THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH INTO WESTERN NM
ON SUNDAY...AROUND THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST. WE EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE DRY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER AND WEAKER MODEL WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER...EVEN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW FOR
A WHILE OVER UT INTO CO. AT LEAST THE GFS DOES NOT DRY THINGS OUT AS
FAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT KEEPS MOISTURE AROUND ON THESE
DAYS. THUS THE IDEA OF LINGERING SHOWERS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK.

GFS THEN BUILDS A 592 DM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN IS NOT
THAT CRAZY ON THE UPPER HIGH...MANAGING A 591 DM HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST NM BY NEXT SUNDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A BROAD
SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO NM FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL TREND
HUMIDITIES DOWNWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL LOCATIONS WESTWARD TODAY...AND
AGAIN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY. DRIER AIR AND ADDED SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW TO 19 DEGREES TODAY OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING. A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 1001 MB LOW IN E CO WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY
MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO
SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. AFTER A DAY OF LOW
HAINES INDICES TODAY...THE INDEX SHOULD CLIMB A CATEGORY OR TWO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO
6 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...A BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST
STATES AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
BETTER STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NM. LOCATIONS FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD TO THE E
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR WETTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE GFS AT LEAST 12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODEL. IF THE SLOWER MODELS ARE
RIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WONT EJECT EASTWARD UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
KEEPING GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY...IF NOT SOONER AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.

AFTER WARMER READINGS TODAY AND SUNDAY...THE RETURNING MONSOON
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN...WARMER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRY AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WORK
WEEK HAINES INDICES SHOULD GENERALLY VARY IN THE 2 TO 3 RANGE WITH
POCKETS OF HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LEE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A WIND SHIFT WITH
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.