Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241727
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1027 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AT TAF SITES
BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND FARMINGTON AND AT SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER NRN NM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT
AT TAF SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AFTER SUNSET. KLVS...KTCC...AND KROW SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...434 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE SEWD OVER THE AREA TODAY
RETURNING SNOW SHOWERS AND OCNL MT OBSCURATIONS TO THE N MTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DIVE S AND SEWD TODAY. WINDS
WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY WITH THE FRONT IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTN
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING E OF THE CONTDVD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE FOUND NW OF YESO TO FARMINGTON WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25-35
KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 45 KT DURING MID AFTN AT
KFMN.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NM LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE CHILLY AIR AND BRING A LITTLE
MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL HANG AROUND AS WELL. A COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
COULD REACH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SHOT
OF COOLER AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A BIT
OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE DRY AIR AND PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS TROUGH MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
CHILLY BUT DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL KICK UP AGAIN TODAY BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FARMINGTON TO SANTA ROSA AND FORT
SUMNER LINE. WINDS MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT FARMINGTON
AND CLINES CORNERS...BUT NOT FOR LONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH LESS WIND AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL
REMAIN CHILLY THOUGH WITH HIGHS STILL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY AND WITH LESS WIND IT
WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TODAY.

THE DRY AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. ADD IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WE END UP WITH
SPECTACULAR WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.

A TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WELL NORTH OF NM THIS WEEKEND BUT IT MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS
IT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EUROPEAN WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT IT LOOKS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN IMPACT ON SUNDAY ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EAST.
HIGHS WOULD STILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.

SO A COLD START TO THE WEEK BUT A MILD FINISH WITH GREAT TRAVELING
WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY ONWARD...A WEAKER DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST BEFORE BECOMING ZONAL THIS WEEKEND.

NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A LOT WEAKER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
SUNDAY...BUT GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
NORTHWEST OF DE BACA COUNTY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS.  THERE COULD
EVEN BE A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS AROUND FARMINGTON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK
FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME WEAKER GUSTS
ARE ALSO LIKELY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES DOWNWARD IN
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD EACH DAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IN GENERAL MIN HUMIDITIES SHOULD ALSO
TREND DOWNWARD DAILY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRIES TO BRIEFLY AMPLIFY
OVER THE AREA. IT MAY DRAW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS
AS WELL.

VENT RATES LOOK GOOD TODAY WITH THE LINGERING WIND...BUT THEY WILL
TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AFTER A LULL IN WINDS LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK...SPEEDS SHOULD GET GUSTY AGAIN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW
ALOFT TURNS ZONAL AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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