000
FXUS65 KABQ 152122
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air moving into New Mexico from Arizona today will limit the
coverage of showers and storms to eastern New Mexico Wednesday to
Friday. Low temperatures over central and western New Mexico will
be the coolest in several weeks with all the dry air and clearing
skies. Showers and storms will increase again statewide Saturday as
an easterly wave draws abundant moisture northward from Mexico.
Active conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday with locally
heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An unseasonably deep H5 trough approaching the Four Corners region
will drag a large dry intrusion into NM through Friday. 21Z surface
dewpoints are responding to deeper mixing over central and western
NM with values falling into the 20s and 30s. Thick high cloud cover
approaching western NM ahead of the main trough axis will move north
of NM and lead to clearing skies overnight. This will allow strong
radiational cooling with the coolest temps in several weeks. Lots of
40s and 50s are expected west of the RGV. Farther east, moisture
scouring ahead of the approaching dry intrusion is still poised to
generate a few strong to severe storms closer to the TX state line.

Wednesday will likely see the most widespread lull in storm coverage
since before July 4th with dewpoints falling into the 30s as far east
as the Pecos Valley. A weak surface wind shift over northeastern NM
may still allow for some isolated activity. Thursday will be a near
repeat of Wednesday with widespread dry conditions west of the Pecos
Valley.

The upper trough will lift northeast into the high plains Friday and
weaken its grip on NM. This will allow pressure heights to rise over
the state while the H5 high center develops over TX. Deeper moisture
is expected to surge back into NM ahead of an approaching easterly
wave over Mexico Saturday. PW values increase above 1" across the
southern tier before surging northward ahead of an approaching upper
trough along the west coast. Sunday through Tuesday look very active
again over the area with locally heavy rainfall possible.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A trough aloft is inching towards the Rockies with an attendant dry
slot aloft working into New Mexico and mixing down to the surface in
western and central parts of the state. This is inhibiting storm
development in the western two thirds of the state, but the eastern
slopes of the central mountain chain have shed some updrafts and
blossoming showers and storms where moisture is better. Storms are
also turning strong to severe as they roll farther east northeast
into the high plains. Temperatures have been seasonal, and humidity
has plummeted to the 15 to 20 percent range in the San Juan basin of
northwestern NM and parts of the Rio Grande valley. Storms will roll
farther east through the evening with most of the activity exiting
NM before midnight. Humidity recoveries tonight will not be as
effective, but still fair to good in most zones, and even excellent
right along the eastern border of the state with TX/OK.

The dry air will have overtaken so much of the state by Wednesday
that few, if any, storms will develop. The seasonal temperatures
will persist with humidity falling to less than 25 percent in most
zones, even below 15 percent toward the Four Corners. This will give
some moderately high Haines indices of 4 to 5, but surface/20ft
winds should decrease a bit from today`s speeds. A northerly wind
shift will enter the northeast corner of the state and areas near
and northeast of this weak boundary would be the only expected area
for any stray storm to develop. This front will sag farther south
into Wednesday night while also advancing west toward the Rio
Grande. Some gusty winds could be observed early Thursday morning as
the front squirts through the canyons within the central mountain
chain.

The better moisture from the aforementioned front will be sufficient
for isolated to scattered storms Thursday afternoon along/east of
the central mountain chain. Otherwise, temperature changes will be
negligible between Wednesday and Thursday. The moisture will again
be best-rooted in the east on Friday and Saturday with isolated to
scattered storms continuing to be favored along and east of the
dryline, stretching parallel to the central mountain chain of NM.
Haines indices will creep up in the areas west of the dryline,
registering values of 5 to 6 in several central to western zones of
NM.

A trough will come toward the CA coast this upcoming weekend while
High pressure stays in control over the Gulf Coast states. It will
take some time, but it appears the deeper subtropical moisture will
finally get squeezed into a plume over Old Mexico and eventually New
Mexico by Sunday and Monday. After a significant hiatus, this will
reinstate a monsoonal pattern and reintroduce wetting storms to the
Land of Enchantment.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
As drier mid level air sweeps into western and central New Mexico,
storm development will be inhibited there and confined to the eastern
plains of the state. A few strong to severe cells will be possible
with brief heavy downpours, gust downburst winds, and large hail. Any
reductions to MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibility will be brief during
downpours. Outside of storms prevailing winds will be moderate with
occasional gusts to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Storms should
diminish and exit New Mexico by mid evening.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  86  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  79  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  51  80  52  82 /   5   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  46  82  48  85 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  78  44  81 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46  83  48  85 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  50  80  50  82 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  58  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  54  79  55  81 /   5   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  53  80  53  81 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  43  67  42  68 /   5   0   5  30
Angel Fire......................  41  72  39  73 /   5   5  10  30
Taos............................  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  51  78  49  76 /   5   0  10  30
Espanola........................  56  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  54  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  54  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  89  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  88  61  90 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  91  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  88  60  90 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  89  64  91 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  57  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  83  55  86 /   5   0   5  10
Clines Corners..................  54  81  54  82 /   5   0   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  58  84  58  86 /  10   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  60  87  60  88 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  80  56  81 /  10   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  52  77  52  79 /  10  10  10  20
Raton...........................  52  81  53  82 /   5   5  10  20
Springer........................  55  84  55  83 /  10   5  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  81  51  80 /   5   5  10  20
Clayton.........................  58  82  58  83 /  30  10  10  20
Roy.............................  57  83  56  82 /  10   5  10  20
Conchas.........................  63  91  62  90 /  20   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  61  91  61  89 /  10   5   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  63  93  63  92 /  30   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  63  90  64  88 /  40  10  10  20
Portales........................  64  90  65  90 /  40  10  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  64  91  65  91 /  20   5   5  10
Roswell.........................  67  96  67  96 /  10   5   5  10
Picacho.........................  63  89  62  89 /  10   0   0  10
Elk.............................  60  83  58  85 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$