Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 200006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
JUST A FEW LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF NM INTO MID EVE NORTH...LATE EVE EAST. BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS FAR NE NM AS OF 00Z WILL ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY GENERATING LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KLVS TO KCVN AFTER
ROUGHLY 08Z TIL ABOUT 17Z. KTCC LIKELY TO BE THE MOST IMPACTED
TERMINAL SITE BY THESE LOW CLOUDS. TEMPO GROUP OF LOW CIGS ADDED
FOR KLVS IN EARLY TO MID MORN PERIOD WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE STILL
JUST MODERATE FOR THIS OCCURRENCE AT KLVS. EAST TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST HALF OF NM WILL INCREASE LOW LVL MOISTURE
INPUT WED...SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT
AFTER ABOUT 19Z IN NE AND SE NM...BUT CHANCES INCREASE MORE SO
ACROSS THE EAST HALF MAINLY PAST THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD OF 00Z
THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...351 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THOUGH THEY WILL BE LESS
WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A
WEAKER SYSTEM PASSES OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DUE TO THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW FINISHES CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FRONT
COULD BEAR SOME FOG ACROSS NE AREAS...BUT MOS EMPHASIZES LOW
CLOUDS TO A GREATER EXTENT. IF WINDS CAN STAY UP...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW THIS FRONT
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL MOISTEN UP WESTERN AREAS ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORMS TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE NOSE OF THE POLAR
JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
INDUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPEED MAXIMUM ALOFT WILL FILTER IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY RESULTING IN A NOTABLE
DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
THAT WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS LENDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO FAVORED PRECIPITATION AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL BE ON THE
HIGHER SIDE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PUSH. MUCH LESS ACROSS SW AND SC
AREAS.

CANT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS WEDNESDAY BUT THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
CONTAIN LESS OF A CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE. OVERALL TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY IS DRIER AND WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND
COOLER/MOIST EASTERN HALF. SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN RH READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE STATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/SE RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE SURGE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO GULF MOISTURE SURGE
EVENTS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND WETTING MOISTURE CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW EVENTS...CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
WILL BE FAVORED. WETTING MOISTURE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
AND EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENT...A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD PUNCH IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ERODE SOME OF THE MOISTURE AWAY ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST. SOME GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WOULD OCCUR ON THUR/THUR NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH/STRONG
WIND SHOWS UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FIRE WX FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY ON FRIDAY...IF NOT GROW IN AREA. WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH
DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE TO FIRE DANGER AND FUEL CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE
IN THE 5/6 RANGE. WILL REASSESS ZONE 109/106 IN TERMS OF FUEL
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF THE DRYLINE SLOSHING
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS IS
MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON A WEAK
PACIFIC WAVE/TROUGH TRANSLATION...SOME UNSETTLEDNESS COULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WETTING
ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIMITED. CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD
CERTAINLY BE THERE. THIS UNSETTLEDNESS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE PACIFIC WAVE. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH. EITHER
WAY...HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH VALUES APPEAR TO BE MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ATTACHED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LOCATION.
TUESDAYS FORECAST IS SHOWING A DRIER AIRMASS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
BUT THAT COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE BASED ON THE UNSETTLED PATTERN NM
HAS EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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