Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 101800
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1100 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
An upper low will cross northern and central NM today and move into
northwestern TX tonight. Occasional showers and mountain obscurations
are expected today across the entire area. Deepening surface low
pressure in West TX this afternoon will generate west to west
southwest wind gusts between 28 to 40 knots. Mountain obscurations
will clear out across the central mountains tonight, but will persist
across western NM. A strong upper level jet will bring showers to
west central and northwestern NM tonight with localized MVFR
ceilings and visibilities. A backdoor cold front will move into
northeastern NM after 00Z and move southward during the evening,
shifting winds to the north and northeast with gusts to 35 knots.
Northwest winds will gust to 35 knots across the rest of the region
tonight behind the departing storm to the east.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MST Wed Jan 10 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system crossing New Mexico today will bring rain
and high elevation snow to western and central New Mexico. The
initial round of precipitation will arrive with a Pacific cold front,
then showers will persist across northwest New Mexico through the
afternoon. Another round of precipitation is possible across west
central New Mexico this evening. In addition to the precipitation
chances, strong to damaging westerly winds will return today. Gusts
between 45 and 60 mph are likely for areas near and south of I-40. A
back door front will increase precipitation chances for the eastern
plains tonight, but thereafter, dry northwest flow will be the rule
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Watching the Flagstaff radar this morning is quite disheartening.
Radar looked very promising 4-5 hours ago, but to see the
precipitation quickly evaporate is certainly disappointing. That
said, there is still a semi-decent band of precipitation shifting
eastward along and behind the Pacific front, which is just moving
into NM attm. However, the latest HRRR shows this band quickly
fizzling before it reaches the ContDvd, though it does show a bit of
a resurgence in precip over the ABQ foothills and central mountain
chain as the front arrives and air is forced upward over the mtns. As
the upper low shifts eastward, convective rain and snow showers are
still expected across the northwest third to half of the CWA this
afternoon. But, perhaps the best accumulations, at least across the
west, may occur this evening as a 125kt 250mb jet noses into west
central NM. There certainly seems to be more energy moving into
western NM this evening than what models showed yesterday. Will keep
winter highlights intact, though could see amounts being somewhat
sub-par.

The wind forecast for today is also troubling. It seems as though the
system has slowed enough such that the 700 mb jet does not move over
the area until after 00Z Thu. Additionally, the surface low over the
OK/KS/NM border doesn`t seem to deepen as much either. So, overall,
guidance has decreased wind speeds. Worried that there could be
additional flip-flop in the models, will also keep the wind
highlights intact, but areas in the high wind warning may see more
advisory-type speeds after all.

Stayed on the low end of guidance for MaxT`s today across the central
and west due to expected cloud cover and showers. However, bumped up
temperatures overnight given that models generally agree that winds
will remain breezy overnight. Last but not least, it still appears a
band of precip will form over the eastern plains tonight along the
back door segment of the cold front. These areas could see a mix of
rain and snow.

Northwest flow aloft will be the rule into early next week. there
will be a few back door fronts, namely on Friday night/early
Saturday, then again early Monday. This will largely keep
temperatures below normal across the plains through early next week,
with Friday as the exception. Above normal temperatures will persist
across the west. ECMWF showing a closed low rapidly moving across NM
next Wed/Thur, but not ready to bite on it yet.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOW HAINES
AND HUMIDITIES GREATER THAN 15 PERCENT FORECAST...

Precipitation moving through eastern AZ and into western NM at this
time but becoming weaker and spottier the farther east it gets.
Short term models picking up on this trend by wimping out on the
wetting precipitation areal coverage and amounts over western and
central NM through this morning and early afternoon. However, the
western and central high terrain still favored today for any
precipitation, and there may be a few random but short lived
thunderstorms.

Short term models have also changed quite a bit in regards to timing
and strength of winds today, and are more focused and strongest with
tonight`s northwest winds on the backside of the departing low
pressure system, rather than this afternoon`s west winds. That said,
there still looks to be gusts to around 50 mph through the afternoon
over much of the higher terrain and portions of eastern NM but some
of the peak winds may not be until this evening or overnight across
the northeast with the back door cold front, as well as at some
higher terrain locales that are favored for stronger winds in
northwest flow. Otherwise, highs in the east will be 5 to 15 degrees
above average today while the west will be near to a few degrees
below average. Vent rates will be good to excellent for most areas.

Chances for precipitation linger during this evening over the north
and west then shift to the east after midnight associated with the
back door cold front. Any amounts may actually be greater than today
for the favored northwest flow areas along the Contdvd and northern
mts.

Winds slowly diminish during the day Thursday, along with lingering
precipitation in the east. Highs will be closer to average for mid
January, and vent rates diminish. Dry northwest flow dominates for
the end of this week and into the middle of next week although a
couple of cold fronts will impact the east Friday night/Saturday and
again next Monday. Meager precipitation may be associated with the
Monday front in the east, and the front could push into the RGV.
Vent rates diminish even more Friday into Saturday, when widespread
poor rates are forecast. No storms with widespread wetting
precipitation are seen in the GFS or ECMWF although the ECMWF tries
harder by developing a low pressure system late next week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ507-508-515-518-519-521-522-524-525-527>532.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ523-526-533>540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ502-504-506-511>514.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ510.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.