Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS65 KABQ 100528 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT
HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST
THROUGH QUAY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THIS WEEKEND FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS SUNDAY THEN PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...THEN REMAIN MORE SEASONABLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FRONT WILL COOL
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM
MORIARTY AREA TOWARDS TUCUMCARI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHICH
APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
STRETCHES ALONG THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH ROSWELL...FORT
SUMNER...CONCHAS AND TOWARDS RATON.

MODELS MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND WENT AHEAD WITH THAT CHANGE IN THE WX GRIDS AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETREATS EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TRACKS INTO WESTERN NM. POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTHWEST HALF WITH THIS FEATURE. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN PUSH INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL BRING A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREE
TEMP DROP BETWEEN SAT AND SUN TO THE EAST AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. A
MUCH COLDER TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MTS EASTWARD. ANOTHER TROF MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT THIS LOOKS
TO NOT BE AS COLD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE RED FLAG
WARNING INTACT AS WINDS MAY STILL PICK UP LATER. RED FLAG WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

POOR RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
EVEN DRIER THURSDAY. BETWEEN 8 AND 14 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO A BACK DOOR
FRONT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE
RULE. WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES AND AREAS OF SUPERHAINES ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD THROUGH ZONE 109. SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND
CLINES CORNERS...EASTWARD ACROSS GUADALUPE COUNTY...THOUGH SMALL
PORTIONS OF ZONES 103 AND 104 THAT BORDER ZONES 107 AND 108 MAY ALSO
SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MAINLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS IT MAY PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...THOUGH WILL LARGELY MIX OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO BE 8 TO 13
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE...SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE FRONT...AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES.
OTHERWISE...LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED...SO ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAY ALSO SEE
AREAS OF SUPERHAINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ACROSS
ROOSEVELT COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN...POOR RECOVERIES EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
APPROACH NM ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL MIXING WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTN. CONTINUED HIGH HAINES...LOW
HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM.
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE STATE...THOUGH WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES...COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER TROUGH MAY SPELL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX/OK BORDERS. MEANWHILE...COULD SEE
CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONE 101. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ107-108.

&&

$$

SHY









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.