Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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248
FXUS65 KABQ 101041
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
341 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures will prevail
over northern New Mexico today before a backdoor cold front begins
to push through the region late tonight through Sunday. This
system will bring gusty winds to the region. Precipitation will
begin to creep into the northwest corner of the state with this
front starting late Saturday night. Expect light snow along the
higher elevations with rain at the lower levels through mid-day
Sunday.

Through the remainder of the week, tranquil weather and above
normal temperatures will continue over the area. A weather front
on Friday will bring a chance for precipitation and cooler
temperatures back into the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the short term, cloud cover will increase through the day today
as a backdoor cold front begins to push into the region later this
evening into Sunday. The main impact with this system will be
gusty winds to much of the forecast area with the highest winds
along the higher terrain of the Central Mountains. Current
guidance hints at a marginal warning level wind event, so for
this forecast package the High Wind Watch will be continued. This
front will also bring light rain and snow to mainly the northwest
corner of New Mexico, with up to about 1" of snow along the San
Juans.

Monday through Thursday, the region will remain in mainly a dry
northwesterly zonal flow. There will be some shortwaves
progressing through the flow, but with a lack of moisture these
waves will produce mainly high clouds over the region.
Temperatures will mainly remain above normal through the week.

Models are indicating a change in the longwave pattern late in the
week. A large amplitude ridge will build along 150W from the
Eastern Pacific northward to the Arctic Ocean with a deep longwave
trough diving down over the western CONUS. The 00Z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF, and GFS Ensemble mean are all in good agreement with
this deep trough digging down to NM. Both models also are spinning
up a surface low in the 990-1000mb range, although the placement
varies from the Great Basin down to N Texas. Both solutions
currently are bringing precipitation to the region with this
system, and temperature profiles at this point look to be favoring
some sort of winter weather for much of the forecast area. The
forecast for late in the week should be monitored as this event
evolves.

54/Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread poor ventilation is expected today, except along the I-25
and I-40 corridors of northeast/east central New Mexico where a lee
trough will induce some breezes.

An upper level trough will cross just north of NM tonight and Sunday
causing winds to strengthen significantly over the forecast area and
vent rates to improve most places. Models suggest a mountain wave
will set up along the Sangre de Cristos tonight into Sunday when
gusts may reach over 60 mph on higher peaks. The speed maximum aloft
is forecast to sag southward over the east central highlands Sunday
morning, as a Pacific cold front crosses, spreading gusts to 60 mph
southward over the Sandia/Manzano/Gallinas Mountains and east
central highlands Sunday morning. Winds will weaken Sunday afternoon
as the speed maximum shifts southeast of the forecast area and a
back door cold front drops into east central areas.  The weather
system may trigger some showers across northwest areas Sunday, but
wetting precipitation is not expected.

A series of perturbations will pass north of NM in rapid zonal flow
aloft early in the coming weak through mid week causing breezy to
windy conditions to persist mainly across the mountains and
especially in the northern mountains.  More showers will be possible
in the mountains near the CO border, but not much accumulation is
expected. Despite the Pacific front Sunday, high temperatures will
remain well above normal tonight through mid week.  An exception
will be near the far eastern border where temperatures will fall
below normal mid week with a shallow back door cold front.

Look for ventilation to trend toward poor again at the lowest
elevations next week, but it looks good or better across elevated
terrain. A potential winter storm will target the area toward the
end of the week with wintry precip and strong wind.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected across all of NM, or nearly so, through
the fcst period. One area a little shaky in that regard will be
portions of the se plains where a few hours of patchy fog and low
stratus would not be out of the question. Fcst models have backed
off somewhat on the chance for this, but for now have kept a
decent nod in that regard for ROW. Light to moderate breezes
prevailing into the early morn Sat, then strengthening
significantly across roughly the ne third of the state where some
gusts could reach 35 to nearly 40 kts across the Interstate 40
corridor and 45 to around 60 kts over and in spottier fashion
immediately to the east the Sangre de Cristos.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  33  48  27 /   0  20  30   5
Dulce...........................  47  28  41  24 /   5  20  50  10
Cuba............................  49  30  43  26 /   0  10  20   5
Gallup..........................  55  33  51  25 /   0   5  10   5
El Morro........................  52  30  46  25 /   0   5  20   5
Grants..........................  55  32  50  25 /   0   5  10   0
Quemado.........................  57  34  50  28 /   0   0  10   0
Glenwood........................  63  38  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  43  25  39  20 /   5  30  50  10
Los Alamos......................  48  36  46  31 /   0   5  20   0
Pecos...........................  50  36  46  29 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  25  43  21 /   0   5  10   5
Red River.......................  38  25  36  20 /   5  10  20   5
Angel Fire......................  42  22  40  16 /   0  10  20   5
Taos............................  48  27  45  21 /   5   5  10   5
Mora............................  53  38  48  30 /   0   5  10   0
Espanola........................  51  34  50  30 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe........................  50  36  46  31 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  33  50  29 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  38  54  35 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  37  56  33 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  33  58  30 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  35  57  32 /   0   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  37  57  34 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  60  36  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  36  49  32 /   0   0   5   0
Tijeras.........................  53  37  52  32 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  31  52  27 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  53  36  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  54  36  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  58  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  59  39  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  57  36  52  19 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  58  34  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  61  33  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  59  38  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  66  39  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  62  36  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  66  44  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  43  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  70  44  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  39  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  63  40  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  37  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  60  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  43  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  63  43  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ512>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

54



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