Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280540 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Weak, closed low aloft centered just northwest of KFLG to slowly
edge closer to the NM/AZ line this forecast pd. Ahead of the low,
perturbed southwest flow aloft will continue to support at least
isolated SHRA/TSRA during the overnight. Will include VC placeholder
at KROW where confidence highest. Elsewhere, given isolated nature
of expected precip will not include mention in TAFs. SHRA/TSRA
becoming more numerous after late morning Sunday with another
active period expected Sunday PM especially along/east of the
central mt chain. Outside passing SHRA/TSRA where brief MVFR
cigs/vsby incursions possible, VFR conditions to prevail. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast over
New Mexico through tonight. An upper level low pressure system will
slide through the area Sunday and spawn yet another round of storms
for central and eastern New Mexico. Monday through Thursday may be
rather wet for eastern parts of the state as low pressure becomes
stationary over the region. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible, with locally heavier amounts over 4 inches
within the high terrain of Catron and Lincoln counties. Statewide
high temperatures will remain below normal for late summer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A nearly stationary upper low churning over Las Vegas NV today will
be the feature to watch through early next week. It`s evolution will
have large implications on the forecast and overall extent of heavy
rainfall within NM. But first, a 40-50kt upper jet will eject ahead
of this feature into southwestern NM and interact with sufficient
low level moisture and instability for scattered storms into this
evening. Models however have trended drier for central and western
NM through Sunday as less upper diffluence is noted with a more
positively tilted wave axis. Lowered overall coverage of storms for
western NM but was skeptical to make too much change as models are
no longer handling this upper feature well.

The forecast for Monday through Thursday is strongly dependent on
where the upper feature becomes stationary and how much it weakens.
There is considerable dry air on the back side of this wave and a
farther eastward progression could spell a much drier forecast for
areas west of the central mt chain. In addition, as can be the
case many times, despite the wave aloft and abundant moisture in
place, the lack of instability from too much cloud cover and cool
temps may become a limiting factor. Basically trended closer to
the SuperBlend and WPC precip fields for much of next week as
confidence is unfortunately decreasing. The SREF/GFS ensembles
offered no improvement as they are much wetter despite their drier
operational runs. At this time, the main focus area for potential
flooding will be across eastern NM for the period between Sunday
night and Wednesday.

Will not detail the extended forecast as models are all over the
place now with timing and placement of upper level features and
low level moisture fields.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very active weather pattern through the upcoming work week with
widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. This will be followed
by a possible drying and warming trend next weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms are off to the races this afternoon across
the west and central areas. It will be an active night with showers
and storms lingering past midnight. While storms are moving at 15 to
20 mph, training of storms will be a concern, maybe producing local
flash flooding.

Storm swirling over Las Vegas, NV will move east to near or south of
the four corners region late Sunday. It will then stall over NM and
weaken early next week. Plenty of moisture will continue to advect
in from the south through Sunday, with the moisture recycling Monday
and Tuesday.

High pressure aloft will build to our east and southeast later next
week, re-supplying moisture to the forecast area Wednesday through
Friday. The deeper moisture will impact southwest and south central
areas Wednesday, the west on Thursday, and central to eastern areas
on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous
across the CWA during this time, with plenty of wetting rain and a
threat of localized flash flooding.

Increasing southwest flow aloft will result in some drying next
weekend across all of the area. It may be short lived as the GFS
brings another surge of monsoon moisture north into western NM early
the following week.

RH recoveries will be excellent just about every where, with some
good recoveries in the northwest and central valleys.

Areas of poor ventilation rates will be present every day through
the upcoming week.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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