Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 281733 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BROAD/DRIER NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 25 KT WITH STRONGEST
READINGS AT LVS. THINNING CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED NEXT 6 HRS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER BATCH OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TODAY THEN
FAIR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
FRONT THURSDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN BY FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE. SOME AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED A FREEZE COULD LIKELY DO SO SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BATCH OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TODAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TAP AS WELL AND HIGHS ACTUALLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE EAST. A WEAKENING EAST WIND INTO THE MID RGV AT THIS TIME SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD FLIRT WITH FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTHWEST
BEFORE THE WARMUP...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS.
WARMER AGAIN WEST THURSDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN IN THE
NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. SLIGHT COOLING
FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCALES WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST.

CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THE GFS COULD BE OVERDOING THE RETURN MOISTURE
INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE ECMWF WHICH
PRODUCES LESS PRECIPITATION AND FAVORS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO FOR
PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY/S SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK SCARY AS ONE TROUGH
EJECTS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS.

THE WEATHER COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS DIGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY INTO THE STATE...ALTHOUGH WITH
WHAT COULD BE DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARD AVERAGE AND BELOW...RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY NEXT TUESDAY. SOME AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
YET EXPERIENCED A FREEZE COULD LIKELY DO SO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
EASTERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY DROP JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OF NORMAL. A MODEST EAST CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND LESS MIXING WILL RESULT IN POOR VENTILATION FOR MUCH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER ARIZONA AND TRANSLATES OVER NM...BRINGING
DRY AIR WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BETWEEN 4 AND 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THESE
DAYS AS WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.  ON WEDNESDAY...POOR VENTILATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ZONE 109...THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF ZONE 104. SMALLER POCKETS OF POOR
VENTILATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR TAOS AND GALLUP. ELSEWHERE FAIR TO
GOOD VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE. ON THURSDAY...POOR VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP VENTILATION IN THE FAIR/GOOD
CATEGORIES.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
HAINES INDICES OF 5 WILL RETURN ACROSS THE NE ON WED AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DRAW UP SOME GULF MOISTURE. GFS REMAINS BULLISH REGARDING THE
MOISTURE RETURN...AND WITH THE AID OF WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT...BREAKS OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. OTHER MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS BULLISH. THOUGH THE
CANADIAN HAS SIMILAR TRENDS AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT BREAK OUT AS
MUCH QPF. MEANWHILE...THE ECWMF SHOWS FAIRLY LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN
IN COMPARISON...AND MAINLY BRINGS WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT IS
SHOWING...UP ACROSS WESTERN NM...WHILE OTHER MODELS FAVOR CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM. IN ANY CASE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND VENTILATION
WILL IMPROVE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS.
THE INITIAL ENERGY LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AREAWIDE. IF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH JUST HOW AND WHEN THE SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL ARRIVE AND IMPACT NEW MEXICO. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF...AT DIFFERENT TIMES...AND CROSSING N AND NE NM.
THUS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER ATTM HOWEVER.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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