Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181718 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1118 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SW BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS INDICATE COVERAGE OF
-SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTH. LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MTS. MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NUDGED TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER UP CONSIDERABLY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...607 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN SE AND
EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SURGING N/NE THROUGH THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND FILTERING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
FROM THE EAST. PATCHY FOG AND SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
BEING REPORTED IN CLOVIS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...600 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ERODING BY 15Z TO 18Z... WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER INCLUDING KROW...KCVN
AND KTCC. HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AND BY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO CENTRAL LOCALES IN
THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND SOME BLOWING DUST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AREAWIDE...
RELAXING SOME OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

&&

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES EASTWARD
TODAY...CLOUDS ALONG WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTING EAST OUT OVER THE VALLEYS AND BASINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPPING INTO EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...RESULTING IN
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG WINDS TO ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NEWD AHEAD OF THE
LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH THE DEWPOINT AT TUSCON INCREASING FROM 17F TO 30F
OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS TIME. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW STRATUS DECK ADVANCING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS ALREADY
INTO THE LOW 40S OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
A BIT...REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE GILA THIS MORNING AND DECREASING
CHANCES AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT DRY THUNDERSTORM WORDING
CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH
EITHER AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN CHECK ELSEWHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 65 KT JET MAX MOVES UP
INTO WRN NM AND LEFT FRONT QUAD LIFT APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM GENERATE.

TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL A BIT AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...LIKELY THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM
MID-DAY SUNDAY. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
FAR NE NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRING DRIER AIR INTO
WESTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ENDING SHOWER CHANCES THERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATING
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THIS AIRMASS AND ENOUGH ELY
UPSLOPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS BUT SUSPECT THE
CONVECTION IS OVERDONE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIKELY TO WIN OUT.

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS THE LIKELY RESULT EACH AFTERNOON. GFS...HOWEVER NOT
ALL THAT DRY WITH THE FLOW TUESDAY...ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CRATER
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS COMPLETELY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE
LIKELY RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTER PERIOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN...CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH FAIR RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VALUES NORTH
AND EAST.

MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ON TAP TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVELS TO ALSO SEE
INCREASES IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MID LEVELS A LITTLE
SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP. UPPER LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INITIALLY
FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT INSTABILITY WEST BUT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE SURFACE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST... SUPPORTING A THREAT OF
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY GOOD TO LOCALLY EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED WETTING
RAIN EXPECTED MOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING BUT DECREASED
CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER BUT
WITH RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 15 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

STILL FOCUSING ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE STATE WITH WIND AND THE DRY SLOT AS THE BIG STORY FOR
NEW MEXICO. HAINES INCREASES TO 5 TO 6 ON TUESDAY AND MOSTLY 6 ON
WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WESTERN ZONES...CENTRAL VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS NEXT POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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