Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 182100
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEXAS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND BY THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF QUICK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MASSIVE RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH
CORE OVER THE NEW MEXICO NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU HANGING TOUGH AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WORKS
AGAINST THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE BITTEROOT AND
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO AND
INTO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
EXTENDS WEAK TROUGH IN TURN SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY. CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...FAVORING
THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BEGINNING
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ARIZONA
BORDER IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN WITH SOME
FUZZINESS ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND TIMING A RUMBLING RHYTHM
THROUGH THE MORNING SIMULATIONS. RIDGE CORE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WEST
COAST TROUGH FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDS
REACH TOWARD A QUASI STATIONARY TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOW LABELED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE E...IN THE EAST PACIFIC OFF THE MEXICO
COAST. WEST COAST TROUGH APPEARS TO REACH THE T.D. BY MIDWEEK INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL IMPART A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TROUGH WILL SHEAR EASTWARD AND ABANDON THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TROUGH BASE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND SHEARING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE CORE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN WESTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AN ADDITIONAL
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TUG INTO NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP
AND THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS. AS THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM COILS UP
OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TIP ON TUESDAY...THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAN HANG TOUGH WILL
DICTATE THE LOOK OF THE MIDWEEK FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND PAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PWAT VALUES NEAR
AN INCH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...WITH VALUES DROPPING
BACK TOWARD 0.75 INCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

FOR TUESDAY...A TRICKY DAY FOR LINING UP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
STATE BOUNDARIES...AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE STATE LINE IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DESPITE
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN FOCUS...BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AS PWAT ONE INCH CONTOUR
LINES UP ROUGHLY FROM FARMINGTON TO SOCORRO TUESDAY WITH LARGEST
VALUES NEAR THE CHUSKA RANGE AND ADJACENT TO WESTERN CATRON
COUNTY. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH MODEL TRENDS
SUGGESTING THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT
CAUTION THAT A RAINY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL ALSO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXTENDS TROUGH AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND THUS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH EXPRESSED AS CLOSED LOW ALOFT SPRAWLED
OVER LOS ANGELES...SANTA BARBARA...AND BAKERSFIELD...WILL IMPART
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED NORTH AND EASTBOUND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NEW MEXICO. WITH SHIFT IN THE DIRECTION OF MOISTURE
PENETRATION...HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ENCROACHES ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. NET EFFECT WILL BE
GREATER STORM COVERAGE BUT REDUCED STORM INTENSITY IN THE ABSENCE
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RAINFALL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION MORE
EVEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
WILL HELP SUPPORT TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND SOME
SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...STRONGEST
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EXTREME EAST. POINTS IN THE WEST WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WEST TEXAS. BROAD DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WIDESPREAD...WITH PWAT TOPPING AN
INCH EAST OF A SILVER CITY TO RATON LINE...WITH PWAT OVER 1.5 INCH
EAST OF A CLAYTON TO RUIDOSO AXIS...AND ALL SPOTS AT SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. GENTLE
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...TROUGH ALOFT WILL HANG OUT OVER
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVES KEEP
THE TROUGH SHAPE TO THE FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY RIDGE
RETREAT INTO TEXAS WILL REVERSE INTO A WESTWARD ADVANCE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...REINVIGORATING THE NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TAP OUT OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING A WIDESPREAD SHOWERY FORECAST STORY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MOST SPOTS TO NORMAL OR BETTER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID TRY TO GO
ON THE HIGH END OF MODEL DEW POINT GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

THE MAIN WETTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAIN ACTION
BEYOND MIDNIGHT WOULD BE FOUND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
FAVORING THE AZ BORDER AREA. A DRY WEDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND MOST OF THE EAST TODAY.

THE STAGE IS STILL SET FOR A MONSOON SURGE INITIALLY IMPACTING FAR
WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN
AS A RESULT. IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN AREAS WOULD BE TOO DRY ALOFT
AND/OR TOO STABLE. HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL ALSO TREND
UP ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE A VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL. POTENTIALLY DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUD DEBRIS
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WETTING
STORMS WILL TRY TO FORM IN THE SUNSHINE CRACKS AND ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. STORMS WOULD ALSO TEND TO
FIRE UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS IS
REALLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED LOW POSITION AND HOW IT APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. THE GFS REMAINS REAL BULLISH FOR BRINGING THE
CLOSED LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THUS
KEEPING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN DOES NOT. THIS
DIFFERENCE MAKES THE GFS AN OUTLIER SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A
DOWN TICK WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD GET SWEPT BACK INTO THE MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AND THAT IS ONE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WETTING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON THIS WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT.

BREEZES SHOULD IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OTHERWISE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TO SCT SH/TS WILL AFFECT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS TODAY.
CARRYING SOME FORM OF IMPACTS AT ALL WEST/CENTRAL SITES. GUP HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED AND FOR A LONGER DURATION.
FMN SHOULD BE IMPACTED DURING THE EVENING WHILE ABQ/AEG SHOULD BE
ON THE EDGE OF SOME SH DEVELOPMENT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WIND WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR A SHORT
DURATION AT SOME OF THE SITES. THIS INCLUDES GUSTS 30-40 KT. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS GUP/FMN HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING SH IMPACTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...EVEN PAST 6Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LESS LIKELY BUT POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WOULD EVENTUALLY BE IN
PLACE. MTN TOP OBSCD ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  85  60  83 /  10  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  53  81  52  77 /  20  30  40  30
CUBA............................  56  81  56  75 /  20  30  40  50
GALLUP..........................  58  79  55  78 /  30  40  50  30
EL MORRO........................  54  75  53  73 /  30  50  60  40
GRANTS..........................  57  79  56  75 /  20  40  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  77  55  75 /  20  50  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  82  60  81 /  30  50  40  40
CHAMA...........................  48  75  47  71 /  20  40  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  57  77 /  20  30  30  40
PECOS...........................  56  80  56  76 /  20  30  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  80  51  76 /  20  30  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  68  45  68 /  20  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  75  47  72 /  30  30  40  50
TAOS............................  52  82  53  77 /  20  30  30  30
MORA............................  52  79  54  76 /  20  30  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  59  86  59  82 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  59  82  57  77 /  20  20  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  85  59  80 /  20  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  86  62  80 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  87  65  82 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  89  66  83 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  65  83 /  10  20  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  89  66  83 /  10  20  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  66  89  65  83 /  10  20  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  89  66  85 /  10  20  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  58  78 /  20  30  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  59  79 /  20  30  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  84  58  78 /  20  20  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  82  58  76 /  10  20  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  83  60  78 /  10  20  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  84  64  80 /  10  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  56  77  59  73 /  10  30  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  56  84  58  81 /  20  20  20  30
RATON...........................  55  87  57  84 /  10  20  20  30
SPRINGER........................  56  88  58  83 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  81  57  78 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  64  92  64  90 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  61  87  62  84 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  67  93  68  92 /  10  10  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  90  67  88 /  10  10  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  95  68  92 /   5   5  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  89  65  89 /   0   5  10  20
PORTALES........................  65  90  66  90 /   0   5  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  91  67  90 /   5  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  91 /   5  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  63  86  65  84 /  10  10  20  30
ELK.............................  59  80  62  78 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY







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