Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251817 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1117 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDING CURRY COUNTY TO WINTER WX ADVISORY PACKAGE AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW THE SNOW BAND SETTING UP SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NC AND CENTRAL NM FOR
NEXT WINTER SYSTEM. ALSO UPDATED HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE
NW...WARMER FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND NE...COOLER FROM RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK AND HIGH CLOUDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT OUT
SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1051 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS THANKS
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM. INITIAL BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EMBEDDED
WITH BE GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND SPEED GUSTS SHOULD BE 30 KT OR LESS
AT TERMINAL SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MTN GAPS. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY OCCUR AFTER 6Z.
THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS DUE TO
INCREASED SN. LVS/TCC WILL MOST ASSUREDLY DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A MVFR TRANSITION. THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORING EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
THEN A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING SNOW IN
FEET...RATHER THAN INCHES. MORE STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO ARRIVE NEXT
WEEK. THE TIME TO PREPARE IS NOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BREAK THIS MORNING...SNOW WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST NM. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL GENERATE SNOW GENERALLY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER...AND AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. WILL UPGRADE MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING...AND INCLUDE HARDING AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL
CONVERT THE WATCH FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO AN ADVISORY.
WILL ALSO SURROUND THE WARNINGS WITH ADVISORIES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND JET DYNAMICS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
AT 7H WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN...THIS TIME FOR THE SANDIA/MANZANOS
EASTWARD TOWARD SANTA ROSA INCLUDING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE GOOD SNOW FROM THIS EVENT
AND THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION AS WELL. IN
FACT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST WIND...WESTERN
PORTIONS OF ABQ MAY SEE SOME SNOW.

SNOW MAY NOT COMPLETELY END BY MID DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE 2ND
SYSTEM ARRIVES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR
SOME CENTRAL AREAS FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM.

ONCE THAT SHORTWAVE SLIDES BY...THEN IT GETS REALLY INTERESTING. A
STRONGER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY COLD
FOR SNOW AT NIGHT...THOUGH LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY MIX WITH RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS THRU THE WEEKEND. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES ARE
LIKELY TO GET VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...PROBABLY MEASURED IN FEET.
WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES EAST...A STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM AND SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD BE
AROUND THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MORE
PRECIP TO THE STATE.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF WETTING PRECIPITATION AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAYS STORM HAS MOVED
INTO TX WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DIVING SE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.
A SURFACE BACK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PLUNGE INTO THE EAST LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND LIKELY SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIRMASS IS BEHIND THIS
FRONT. WHILE HIGHS RECOVER TO THE 40S IN CLAYTON TODAY THEY WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY. HIGHS OVER ALL THE AREA WILL
BE HIGHER TODAY...CLIMBING TO WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL. BUT
ALL LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM NEAR THE AZ BORDER WILL BE COLDER THURSDAY.
HIGHS 30 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE COMMON IN THE EAST.
VENT RATES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE WEST
BUT MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST...SPOTTY POOR RATES TODAY. MIN
RH VALUES WILL BE FROM THE 30S TO 50S TODAY WITH MOSTLY EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES TONIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST...THEN EXPAND SOUTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NW WILL SWING THROUGH NM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION WEST WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MIXING WITH RAIN IN
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL NOT
TAKE TOO MUCH OF A HIT THANKS TO DECENT TRANSPORT WINDS.

A MUCH STRONGER STORM WILL BE BREWING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND WILL GATHER STRENGTH AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN CA THIS WEEKEND. A PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS JUST WHAT
WE NEED FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. A FEW FEET OF SNOW SHOULD FALL ON THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE THIS MUCH SNOW COULD POSE A
DANGER TO ROOFS AND PLAGUE TRAVEL. THE INCREASING SW FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE STATE. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO WETTING RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE RISE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS COMMON SOUTH OF I 40. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR TWO MORE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MST
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

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