Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190919
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air will limit thunderstorm coverage today, primarily confining
rain to far western New Mexico. Temperatures will be seasonable with
warm to hot readings across the state today, including some mid to
upper 90s in the eastern plains. A slight increase in thunderstorms
is expected on Thursday in western and central New Mexico as moisture
gradually begins to seep back to the north and east. By this weekend
much of central to western New Mexico will observe scattered to
numerous storms in the forecast, and a few isolated cells will also
begin to develop in the eastern plains of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be centered near the Kansas/Oklahoma border today
with upper level winds staying from the east southeast over NM. A
swath of dry air in the mid to upper troposphere (600mb and above)
has invaded eastern to central portions of the state, and it is
advancing into the western zones early this morning. This will put
the kibosh on many storms with a subsidence inversion overlaid near
the base of this dry air intrusion aloft. Far western NM stands the
best chance for scattered storms with only a few isolated cells
expected near the central mountain chain. The surface dewpoints will
only lower slightly, but less cloud cover should still yield warm to
hot temperatures today, within a couple to a few degrees of seasonal
normals for mid July.

The dome of high pressure aloft splits on Thursday with a centroid
over southwest Kansas and the primary one shifting over Missouri.
Winds aloft over NM will respond with just a slight veering in
direction, adding a bit more of a southerly component. This will
steer better subtropical moisture into southwestern and west central
NM with some moisture gradually seeping into central zones toward
Thursday evening. Storms will become more numerous in the western
areas, but will still be isolated to scattered in the central zones.
High temperatures Thursday afternoon could fall short of today`s
readings in western zones, as more cloud cover and precipitation
moderates heating.

High pressure will then become broadly stretched across much of the
southern U.S. into Friday, but mid tropospheric pressure heights will
fall to around 591-593 decameters across NM and the greater southwest
with ill-defined centroids posing an erratic wind field aloft. This
will lower subsidence and could allow more effective convective
updrafts surrounding the higher terrain while the variable wind
directions steer storms in an equally fickle manner. Once again, the
plains will be largely void of storms on Friday.

Some ambiguity remains into Saturday and Sunday with regard to the
upper high placement and the upper level wind field it will impose.
However, the pressure heights remain fairly low, and a flux of better
subtropical moisture is forecast to creep farther into eastern AZ and
western to central NM. Forecast models still differ with regards to a
back door front. The GFS remains the more aggressive member,
bringing the surface boundary well into northeast NM, complete with
easterly upslope flow and health QPF. Have not fully bought into this
scenario, as there is much uncertainty on the exact location of
upper level features, and the copious unknowns with daily rounds of
convection that will ultimately dictate the pattern. Regardless,
suffice it to say that the pattern will turn wetter day-by-day into
the weekend and next week as deeper subtropical moisture continues to
filter into NM.


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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The ABQ 00Z sounding shows the leading edge of the mid-level dry
air. This dry air mass aloft will shut down most convective
activity, except far western NM. Temperatures stay up over the
eastern half of the state with sunnier skies expected. With higher
daytime highs, and slightly lower Td`s, MinRHs are a bit lower than
has been the norm lately. Storm activity will trend up a bit Thursday
as the dry air aloft begins to move N of the region around an upper
high centered over the Great Plains. Storm coverage will favor the
far western high terrain with only isold/sctd coverage over the
northern mtns. The east and ctrl mtns look to remain void of
afternoon convective activity however a decent crop of cumulus is
still expected.

With the upper high shifting east Fri and Sat, the monsoonal
moisture plume shifts back over western NM with better storm
coverage over the western and ctrl high terrain, stepping up further
Saturday. Overnight storm activity will likely return Friday night
and even more so Saturday night. MixHgts will be at their best
Fri/Sat for the forecast period, however vent rates trend down with
fair to poor over much of the state.

Models diverge Sunday with the placement of a backdoor front. The
GFS depicts the front through the NE plains Sunday morning, while
the ECM only reaches eastern CO. The GFS has backed off with how far
south and west the front reaches from its earlier runs, however both
models are still showing a good monsoon plume over much of NM
keeping chances for scattered storms over the east. After that, the
GFS brings a weak tropical low from the Gulf of California, really
enhancing the monsoon plume for early next week while the ECM slowly
builds the upper high back over TX and stretching well west over the
southern Rockies. There are a number of different features that
would need to stay consistent in the forecast for the GFS`s tropical
low to reach NM next week, so at the moment this solution is
unlikely to happen being that far out in the forecast period.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant storm activity over western NM which will continue to push
west with one particular patch of storms moving over the NW plateau
potentially reaching KFMN. Brief periods of localized visibility
restrictions will accompany the passage of any tstorm. Wednesday will
see a lull in tstm activity due to the upper high over the Great
Plains swinging in dry air aloft over NM. This will cap convection
over much of NM, with a crop of cu and isolated convection west of
the central mtn chain, scattered west of the continental divide.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will reign supreme Wednesday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  64  94  63 /  10  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  90  52  88  52 /  20  20  20  30
Cuba............................  86  55  85  55 /  20  20  30  30
Gallup..........................  89  57  88  56 /  30  20  50  40
El Morro........................  85  52  82  52 /  20  20  50  40
Grants..........................  89  55  87  55 /  20  20  30  30
Quemado.........................  85  53  82  54 /  20  30  60  50
Glenwood........................  88  63  85  63 /  50  30  50  50
Chama...........................  82  48  82  48 /  30  20  30  30
Los Alamos......................  85  62  83  62 /  20  10  20  30
Pecos...........................  86  55  85  57 /  10  10  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  53  82  53 /  10  10  30  20
Red River.......................  75  46  75  46 /  20  10  40  30
Angel Fire......................  78  42  78  42 /  20  10  30  30
Taos............................  87  53  88  53 /  10  10  20  20
Mora............................  82  54  83  54 /  10  10  20  20
Espanola........................  92  61  91  61 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  86  61  86  61 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  90  60  90  60 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  68  91  66 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  70  92  69 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  66  94  64 /  10  10  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  96  63  94  63 /  10  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
Socorro.........................  93  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  57  88  57 /  10  10  20  20
Tijeras.........................  90  62  89  62 /  10  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  54  89  56 /  10  10  10  20
Clines Corners..................  86  57  86  57 /  10  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  84  59 /  10  10  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  89  63  88  62 /  10  10  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  81  53  80  53 /  20  10  40  30
Capulin.........................  91  58  91  58 /  10   5  10   5
Raton...........................  92  57  93  57 /  10   5  10   5
Springer........................  93  58  94  59 /  10   5  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  85  55  87  56 /  10  10  10  20
Clayton.........................  94  63  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
Roy.............................  89  61  91  62 /   5   5   5   5
Conchas.........................  96  69  97  69 /   5   5   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  93  64  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  98  68 100  68 /   5   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  92  65  94  66 /   5   5   5   0
Portales........................  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  66  93  67 /   5   5   5   5
Roswell.........................  94  69  96  69 /   5   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  86  62  89  63 /   5  10  10  10
Elk.............................  81  58  82  59 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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