Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1212 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Weak low pressure aloft to be a little south of the Four Corners
during the fcst period. While another pretty good crop of showers
and storms is likely this aftn into the eve, VFR conditions should
still prevail outside of this activity. Short-lived MVFR impacts
and mt obscurations fairly likely with the stronger storms today,
more so across the se third to half of the fcst area than
elsewhere due to richer moisture there. Brief IFR conditions can
not be ruled out, but should be pretty rare. Added some shower and
thunderstorm tempo groups, mainly west half, due in part to
activity already having developed as of this writing. Timing of
storm impacts in tempo- containing TAFS mainly 20-00Z, but may
linger well into the eve hours, especially across the se half.



As a weak upper low slides east to near the Four Corners today,
an active weather day is in store for much of the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours as the
upper low remains over northwest New Mexico. The upper low is
forecast to weaken somewhat Monday but east and southwest winds
are expected to continue the flow of moisture into the state.
Showers and storms will favor the east slopes of the central
mountain chain and adjacent highlands both Monday and Tuesday. The
active weather pattern is expected to continue through the week
with drier weather by the Holiday weekend.


Closed upper low spinning over northern AZ early this morning.
The squall line which developed across eastern New Mexico Saturday
evening continues to bring heavy rain to portions of southeast
Chaves and Roosevelt counties. The swath of heavy rain is ever so
slowly moving ewd and should push east of NM by about sunrise.

NAM and GFS agree that the upper low over AZ will move slowly ewd
today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of this
feature across much of western and eastern NM after a few hours
of surface heating. -12C air at 500mb should make small hail quite
common this afternoon. Showers and storms then converge on
central areas including the ABQ and Santa Fe metro areas during
the late afternoon or early evening hours.

GFS and NAM12 continue to differ on how the upper low evolves
tonight and Monday. NAM12 continues to fill/weaken the low Monday
afternoon while the GFS hangs the upper low back over western NM
through Monday evening. GFS solution would equate to much more in
the way of shower and thunderstorm activity mainly along and east
of the central mountain chain Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF and
Canadian models are more in line with the GFS and therefore
trended the forecast toward a slower progression of the upper

As the upper high begins building up from the south Wednesday and
Thursday, drier air aloft works into the northwest third of the
state. Convection remains active across other areas, despite
heights rising across the southern half. Models continue idea of a
strengthening southwest flow aloft ahead of deep upper level
trough moving into the PACNW Friday. This forces the upper high
east and brings a slug of monsoon moisture across NM. Models
continue to agree that dry westerly flow aloft moves in for the
Holiday weekend.



A moistening/cooling trend is in play through mid week as a slow
moving upper low approaches from the west then stalls and fills over
western New Mexico, drawing moisture northwest across the state.
Chances for wetting rain and humidity will trend up, beginning
today, with humidity recovery generally good to excellent areawide
through at least Wednesday night.

A warming/drying trend will kick-off late week as a ridge of high
pressure builds over New Mexico, but significant drying will be
delayed until next weekend when a west coast trough progresses east
across the intermountain west and brings dry westerlies over the
Desert Southwest and southern Rockies. Temperatures will trend up
above normal by next weekend and haines values of 5 will begin to
show up across portions of the area. Moderate forecaster confidence
on this pattern transition late next week into the weekend given
good agreement between the 00z GFS and ECMWF and decent run-to-run





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