Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 232358 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016

VFR conditions with light to, at most, locally moderate winds
through the fcst period. High and some mid level clouds to spread
across roughly the west three quarters of fcst area over next 24
hours. A backdoor front moving slowly to the west is fairly likely
to get just far enough west to reach vicinity, or a short distance
west, of Rio Grande Valley by 06Z or shortly after. If so it would
produce some modest to at most moderate east winds below the lower
gaps in central mt chain, including KABQ vicinity, with any gusts
remaining below 25kt.



Mid and high clouds will increase from the west overnight. The
clouds will gradually lower Monday, eventually resulting in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the northwest
third of the state Monday night and Tuesday morning. Drier air
from the west will put a rapid end to the showers and storms by
Tuesday afternoon. A drying and warming trend will get underway
Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds over the region.


Low and mid level moisture continues to slowly increase across the
southwest mountains today. A few sprinkles or light showers are
possible in Catron and western Socoroos counties this afternoon
and early evening as a result.

A southwest jet on the southern end of the high amplitude trough
along the west coast will continue to race to the northeast and
bring a slug of subtropical moisture with it. The jet will provide
the necessary lift to generate scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms from around sunset Monday through Tuesday morning.
Favored area for showers and storms remains across the northwest
third of the state. Precipitable water amounts rise to around
0.75" so a few of the showers or storms could end up producing
brief locally heavy rain.

Dry air aloft moves in quickly Tuesday afternoon, ending all but
an isolated shower or two. Upper level ridge pumps up from the
south Wednesday and continues in place through Thursday night.
Temperatures warm to between 10 and 20 degrees above average
Wednesday through at least Friday and possibly into next weekend.

Tropical convection in the eastern Pacific Ocean, if it continues,
would lend itself to a weather pattern change for the southwest
U.S. and southern Rockies in the 7-10 range. Recent SST trends in
this same area indicate that this convection stands a good chance
of continuing (strong SST gradient developing during the past
several days). We can only hope.



Another day of well above normal temperatures with a few near record
highs across central New Mexico, despite a weak backdoor cold front
pushing southwest across east central portions of the state.
Moisture is trending up and is evident with a more well developed
cumulus cloud field over the mountains, especially over the
southwest mountains where a few showers have popped-up. The
moistening trend will continue into Monday night ahead of an upper
level trough, which will bring chances for wetting precipitation
across much of central and northwest New Mexico Monday night.
Relative humidity will trend up Monday into early Tuesday with high
temperatures trending down, though still forecast to remain above
normal. The northwest quarter of the state will be favored for
wetting precipitation Monday night into early Tuesday. Vent rates
will be good to excellent most areas Monday and Tuesday.

A new drying/warming trend will begin Wednesday as a large and
dominant ridge of high pressure stands up in the wake of the
departing trough. Daytime temperatures will trend up and be well
above normal once again. Vent rates will take a dive Wednesday under
an increasingly stable atmosphere, with some improvement into the
fair and good categories by Thursday.





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