000
FXUS65 KABQ 160857
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
257 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS STATES AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE SW CONUS. AT 08Z...THE SURFACE DRYLINE WAS
POSITIONED FROM NEAR DALHART SOUTH TO HEREFORD AND LUBBOCK SEPARATING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FROM THE 50S. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS THE DRYLINE NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THIS AREA TODAY THEN RETREATING WESTWARD BY 03Z. A WEAK
UPPER VORT SHOWN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY HELP BACK LOW LEVEL
FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STORMS TO FIRE OVER UNION COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MUCH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE WITH TEMPS
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TODAY TO THE SW FRIDAY
AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK MID
LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL SLIDE NE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND COMBINE
WITH TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME MORE VIRGA SHOWERS AND
DRY STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED THAN THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS BUT SOME BUILD UPS SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL AND WINDS ON
THE BREEZY SIDE.

THE FOCUS WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING AS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AND WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STATES WITH MULTIPLE
VORTS TRANSLATING ACROSS COLORADO IN THE BASE OF THE WAVE. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND A POTENT DRY
SLOT OVER OUR AREA WILL MEAN HIGH FIRE DANGER. AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
WEST TO NW FLOW LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PERIODIC STRONG MT
WAVE ACTION. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BUT IT
IS CLOSE. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ACTUALLY DELIVERS SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE NORTHERN MTS. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DRY AIR SHIFTED OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING FROM CO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS COULD TRIGGER A
STRAY AND DRY THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR ACROSS THE
NE PLAINS TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS TO AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND VAUGHAN.  HIGH HAINES WILL BE A DAILY THEME THROUGH SATURDAY AS
VALUES OF 6 BECOME WIDESPREAD EACH AFTERNOON. POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DAILY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST THEN
HEADS INLAND. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS FROM SOCORRO COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO UNION COUNTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES STEERING THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER NM.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE JET WILL CROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS SATURDAY PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH
OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL STRADDLE NW TO SE PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SPREADING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AS WELL. THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE JET SHOULD LINGER
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
CROSSES CO INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THIS TIME MONDAYS WINDS LOOK A BIT
WEAKER THAN SUNDAYS WINDS...BUT MONDAYS SPEEDS MAY STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  AFTER HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAK 5 TO 19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...READINGS
WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS A PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON MONDAY.
THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY...A FEW MOISTURE STARVED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAINES INDICES WILL BEGIN
TO MELLOW OUT A LITTLE  SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ONLY PATCHY READINGS
OF 6 FAVORING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ALOFT ON TUESDAY INDUCING A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND AND DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS COULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NW US. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LAST OF THE SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE EASTERN BORDER OF NM...AS RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH VFR
CIGS AND VIZ THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NM
THROUGH THE DAY THU...WITH WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS
FROM 19Z ONWARD THU AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER 02Z
SUNSET THU EVENING. SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  79  36  79  37 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  81  40  82  40 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  84  40  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  80  35  79  35 /   0   0   5   0
GRANTS..........................  86  44  84  45 /   0   0   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  81  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  88  40  87  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  70  41  72  39 /   5   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  53  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  74  51  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  66  41  68  40 /  10   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  30  72  29 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  77  42  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  75  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  82  49  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  76  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  56  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  92  54  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  55  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  90  54  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  58  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  52  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  84  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  50  81  49 /   0   0  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  56  86  54 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  76  54  78  52 /   0   0   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  80  50  85  52 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  84  43  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  83  43  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  47  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  89  55  94  57 /  10  10   0   0
ROY.............................  84  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  92  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  90  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  60  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  93  57  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  94  59  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  58  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  60  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  89  58  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  83  57  85  55 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$