Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Winds will be lighter on Saturday as the flow aloft weakens. A back
door cold front will push SWWD through the eastern plains Saturday
afternoon and night increasing moisture and sparking SCT to ISOLD
showers and thunderstorms from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
eastward. The front will cause N and NE winds to gust in the 30-40 kt
range across the eastern plains Saturday night, then also below
canyons opening into the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and upper
Tularosa Valley late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There could
also be some patchy MVFR conditions in low clouds along the east
slopes of the central mountain late Saturday night into Sunday



.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017...
Breezy conditions will continue overnight for most areas as a storm
system moves east through the central Rockies. Lighter winds are in
store Saturday as winds aloft decrease. A backdoor cold front is
forecast to push south into far northeast New Mexico Saturday. This
front will slide south and west through the remainder of the state
Saturday night. Gulf moisture will increase behind the front,
resulting in isolated thunderstorms over the northern and western
mountains Sunday afternoon. As Gulf moisture continues to increase
Sunday night, showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase on
Memorial Day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
will favor the higher terrain mainly north of Interstate 40. An
active weather pattern is forecast through next week as a weak upper
level trough over southern California keeps moisture streaming in
from the south and southeast.


Southwest flow aloft continues today, on the southeast side of an
upper level trough sliding eastward through UT/WY. Breezy conditions
will continue for most areas overnight as this weakening upper
trough slides southeastward through CO. Winds aloft relax on
Saturday, so just expecting wly breezes during the afternoon. A
backdoor cold front will slide south into far northeast NM Saturday
morning. A few showers or a thunderstorms are possible along the
front as it stalls out over Union county. This front will surge
south and west Saturday night, reaching the central mountain chain
just after midnight. East winds will develop in the mid RGV and
points west Sunday morning. MOS guidance suggesting east winds into
the ABQ metro in the 15 to 25 mph range Sunday morning. Cooler air
will filter in behind the front Sunday. GFS generates isolated
convection over the western and northern mountains Sunday afternoon
and evening. GFS keeps at least isolated convection going over
central and northern NM Sunday night due to mid level deformation
(atmospheric stretching). Low level moisture advection continues
from the southeast Sunday night, resulting in an increase in shower
and thunderstorm coverage Memorial day afternoon and evening,
primarily in a swath from the southwest mountains northeast to the
Sandia/Manzano mountains to the Sangres and northeast highlands.

Moisture advection continues into Tuesday as a negatively tilted weak
upper level trough moves over CA and Baja, keeping a low level sely
flow in place over NM. Scattered convection looking likely for most
mountain ranges Tuesday afternoon, moving out into the valleys and
basins Tuesday evening. GFS and ECMWF models have similar solutions
for Wednesday with scattered convection over the higher terrain in
the afternoon, moving northeast and east out over the valleys, basins
and plains during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Baggy trough over CA eventually morphs into a weak close low over
far southwest AZ Thursday. GFS tries to bring in dry mid level air
to NM Thursday afternoon while the ECMWF keeps things wet. For late
May/early June, this is quite the anomalously "wet" pattern. No it`s
not an early start to the North American Monsoon (we still hang on
to upper level westerlies) but it`ll sure seem that way next week.




Winds aloft will trend from southwest to west today to west and
northwesterly through Saturday and Sunday as an upper low pressure
system to our north exits into the upper Midwest and a ridge of high
pressure aloft builds sharply to our west. In addition, a surface
boundary wavering over far northeast New Mexico this afternoon will
retreat tonight, then return Saturday, plunging down the eastern
plains Saturday night and spreading higher humidities and
cooling south and westward.

An isolated shower or storm could develop along the boundary in far
northeast New Mexico later this afternoon or evening. Otherwise,
critical conditions to continue along and south of Interstate 40
until around sunset with spottier critical conditions elsewhere.

After another night of poor humidity recoveries for the much of the
central and south tonight, the more significant changes begin.
Potential for critical conditons wane, as high temperatures start to
cool and winds aloft weaken. That said, minimum humidities fall
below 10 percent again along and south of Interstate 40 Saturday
afternoon but they increase somewhat over the far north central and
northeast. Some localized critical conditions possible from the Las
Vegas to Santa Rosa and Clines Corners area in the afternoon.
Chances for convection increase substantially over northeast New
Mexico by Saturday night, given the strong surface frontal push and
it`s attendant low level moisture. Expect the boundary to make it`s
way into the Rio Grande Valley later Saturday night and Sunday
morning and potentially westward to the Contdvd. Sunday`s high
temperatures will fall to around 5 to 10 degrees below average
overall, and humidities trend upward central and east.

Scattered convection will favor the northern mountains and Contdvd
Sunday and will expand in areal coverage Monday into Tuesday as
return flow strengthens and a weak disturbance undercuts the ridge
over the Great Basin and tracks into NM. High temperatures Monday
and Tuesday will remain below average and by Monday night, good to
excellent humidity recoveries are forecast. Scattered showers and
storms could linger for the rest of the week.  Vent rates trend from
mostly excellent Saturday to fair to good Sunday and improve Monday
and Tuesday.




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