Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 082317
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
High amplitude ridge axis extending s to n from AZ through the PacNW
with n to nw flow over NM. Gusty sfc wnds over ern NM at 23Z to
diminish aft 02Z with typical drainage winds developing at KSAF.
Ridge axis to drift slowly ewd next 24 hrs as weak sfc lee trough
develops. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet stretch of weather is expected through next week. After the
winds diminish across northeast New Mexico early this evening, the
warming trend will be the next big story. Above normal temperatures
are expected for the next 7 days, despite a couple of back door cold
fronts. Strong nighttime inversions and little wind will increase the
haze which will be mainly noticeable each morning. Precipitation
will remain scarce.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds are expected to quickly diminish with sunset across northeast
NM, therefore the wind advisory should be good to expire at 4 pm.

Through the weekend, the high amplitude upper level ridge across the
western CONUS will slowly inch eastward. As heights rise over NM,
expect temperature to warm. On Saturday, temperatures will increase
up to 10 degrees over today`s readings, and on Sunday, another
degree or two warmer. All areas will once again be above normal for
early December.

Another back door front is expected on Monday as another system dives
into the Great Plains. This front will do little to change
temperatures, but rather just switch the winds around to the north.
Above normal temperatures with little change is expected through
Tuesday.

Differences in the models arise on Wednesday with the next system
diving southward out of Alberta. The GFS shows a weaker, but more
progressive wave sliding toward Oklahoma. A back door front with
strong winds is associated with it. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to
show this system closing off as it shifts south or even south-
southwest into AZ. With this scenario, the back door cold front
arrives later on Wednesday. Either way, it doesn`t look like there
will be much chance for precipitation, though the ECMWF solution may
at least result in more cloud cover.

Models are indicating a pattern change for the following week, but
the jury is still out whether NM will just see wind, or perhaps some
precip.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across the northeast
plains of NM where very dry air is advecting south on strong north
winds. These winds will taper off after sunset. Cold low temps are
in store again tonight as exceptionally dry air, clear skies, and
lighter winds leads to strong midslope inversions.

Not much change was advertised on the morning forecast guidance for
the next 7 days. Very dry high pressure over the west coast will
continue inching eastward toward NM and allow temperatures to trend
5 to 10 degrees normal for the entire area. Surface dewpoints are
still projected to fall into the single digits in the low elevations
with teens below zero in the high terrain Sunday and Monday. This
will yield min humidity values in the 10 to 15% range with fair to
good overnight recoveries. The northern mountains may see a several
day period of min humidity below 10% with poor recoveries. This will
encourage some of the meager snowpack to sublimate through Tuesday.

The other focus will be widespread poor ventilation through at least
Wednesday. A weak wind shift entering eastern NM Monday may provide
brief improvement to fair, followed by another wind shift Wednesday.
Otherwise, winds will be light for nearly the entire area. This will
allow for increasing haze each day through next week.

Guyer

&&

$$



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