Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 241742 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong north winds focusing over eastern NM where gusts up to 55 kt
will continue thru 22Z from near Clayton to Tucumcari and Clovis.
Winds are already tapering off over central and western NM. Winds on
guidance have trended much lighter for KABQ so will cancel Airport
Weather Warning if 35 kt not reached by 1 pm. Meanwhile, snow,
blowing snow, and very low vsbys to continue along the CO border
before tapering off late this afternoon. Winds will lighten up all
areas overnight and end up swinging back around the southwest after
.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017...
Cooler temperatures will prevail across the Land of Enchantment
today as a cold front wraps in behind a vigorous low pressure
system. Snow showers will linger across the northern mountains this
morning before tapering off by the late afternoon period. Meanwhile,
strong to damaging winds will persist across the eastern plains as
the cold front pushes southward. Temperatures will rebound a few
degrees Saturday during a temporary break from the unsettled
weather. Our next incoming storm will bring precipitation chances to
northern areas of New Mexico Saturday night into Sunday. A more
potent storm system will impact the state Tuesday through Thursday.
As the storm system exits to the east, wrap around energy from the
storm will keep lingering snow showers across the northern mtns to
the NE Plains through the early evening hours. Cooler cond will also
filter southward behind the exiting system plummeting today`s highs
25-35 degrees along and east of the central mtn chain. Strong winds
will redevelop this morning central and east with high, possibly
damaging winds continuing across the eastern plains this aftn as a
secondary cold front pushes southward. Chances of blowing dust will
develop across the NE Plains this aftn. Winter highlights will
persist across the Sangre De Cristos eastward through midday but all
wind advisories/warnings across central and eastern NM will continue
through the afternoon. Winds and precip chances will gradually taper
off this afternoon and into the evening with a drier and colder
night across the state.
Sat will be dry and mild as temps rebound 5-10 degrees with help
from brief upper level ridging developing over the region.
The second incoming storm system will be quick moving as it clips the
northern tier of the state Sat night into Sun. Light to moderate
precipitation will favor the northern mtns with moderate breezes
central and east followed by temps cooling again. The third, more
potent storm system is still on track to bring widespread unsettled
weather Tues through Thurs...with another upper level disturbance to
follow by the end of the week.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY IN MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF NEW MEXICO...
A dynamic low pressure system continues to bring some big impacts to
portions of New Mexico. With the low currently over the northeastern
corner of the state, wrap-around moisture and snow continues to fall
over the northern mountains with strong to severe winds
accompanying. The back door surface front is still winding up for a
plunge into eastern NM later this morning, allowing winds to spike
up even more with gusts of 60-75 mph not out of the question.
Precipitation will slowly diminish toward the afternoon hours, and
the cooler temperatures will be accompanied by higher RH values.
While the RH will stay above the defined critical thresholds in
eastern NM, significant attention should be retained to much of the
plains due to the severe wind gusts expected. Despite some cooling
in the Rio Grande valley, temperatures will remain close to seasonal
averages for late March and some drier air will help nudge dewpoints
and minimum RH values down below critical thresholds for a few hours
this afternoon. Thus, the Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a
Red Flag warning. At this time it appears the lower part of the
valley around Socorro would have an easier time meeting the criteria
than the Albuquerque area.
Winds will finally abate after dark this evening as the low pulls
farther east and away from NM. Humidity recoveries tonight will be
highly variable with some poor recoveries expected in the west
central zones and good to excellent RH rebounds in the far eastern
plains. With short wave ridging aloft, a rebound in temperatures is
anticipated Saturday. Just about all locales in the forecast area
should eclipse normal high temperature values, and good to excellent
ventilation rates will develop everywhere but the far northern
mountains of NM. Breezes will start to increase, mainly in the
southern tier of zones, late Saturday afternoon, but the speeds will
be drastically less and more tolerable compared to yesterday and
Winds aloft increase a bit more Saturday night as the next Pacific
disturbance quickly crosses over northern NM. The faster progression
of this feature and an overall weaker structure will limit the
precipitation and wind impacts on NM, but breezy to windy conditions
will still transpire Sunday afternoon. Another shot of cooler
temperatures will also accompany this trough passage with
precipitation staying light and generally confined to the northern
tier of NM. The stronger winds will warrant a watchful eye and
humidity could be marginally critical in some east central zones
Sunday afternoon, but no formal Fire Weather Watch has been issued
at this time.
Another break in the action will grace NM on Monday with warming
temperatures, lighter winds, and drier conditions. This respite will
be short-lived though, as yet another Pacific trough will be quickly
moving inland into the southwestern states late Monday into Monday
night. This trough is forecast to deepen into a low as it crosses
the Land of Enchantment Tuesday, spreading some precipitation over
portions of the state while shifting wind directions and cooling
temperatures some. This repetitive cycle will finish out the end of
next week, as one more additional low pressure system passage will
be in the works.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
Blizzard Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ512-514-516.