Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181127 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Overnight storms have died down across the forecast area. High
pressure to the east will direct drier air over eastern NM, limiting
afternoon convection to western and central NM. Storm flow will be to
the west off the higher terrain. VFR conditions will be the rule
outside of the chance for brief MVFR from passing storm cells
producing heavy rains, small hail, and gusty winds. Southerly winds
beginning to pick up a bit stronger over the eastern plains with
breezy gusts possible during the afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and this evening over much of central and western New
Mexico as ample moisture lingers over the area. Drier air will work
into more of eastern and central New Mexico on Wednesday with less
storms expected. The number or thunderstorms will then gradually
increase day-by-day Thursday through the weekend as moisture seeps
back into place over New Mexico. Temperatures will remain within a
few degrees of seasonal averages through the rest of the week.


High pressure will begin re-situating itself today, losing the
center west of NM and gradually establishing centroids north and
northeast of the state. This should not impact the overall moisture
fields across the state today with healthy surface dewpoints and
precipitable water values over much of the forecast area. Winds aloft
will begin to take on more of an easterly component by late in the
day, and consequently storms should be steered westward for the most
part. This should inhibit the eastern plains of NM from observing
storms, but much of the central mountain chain westward should
observe scattered to numerous storms. Temperatures will be similar to
yesterday`s readings, running just a couple to a few degrees below
normal in western zones and slightly above in eastern zones.

Oddly enough, with the high strengthening and becoming better
consolidated over Kansas and Oklahoma, the easterly winds aloft into
NM should steer in a drier air mass tonight into Wednesday. This will
again keep the eastern NM plains void of storms, but much of the
central mountain chain and Rio Grande valley should also succumb to
the drying effects with little storm activity expected there. The
western high terrain of the state should still retain sufficient
moisture with a pronounced north-south oriented moisture gradient
likely being a focus for initiation between the Continental Divide
and the AZ-NM border Wednesday. Despite the drier air, surface
temperatures will likely only gain a nearly negligible degree or two.

By Thursday, high pressure will stay strong and centered east of NM.
To what degree the western periphery of the high will impact NM is
being debated amongst the forecast models. The GFS keeps a farther
westward extension of the high over NM, keeping a more easterly
component to the flow while the NAM already begins to draw in a more
southerly component to the flow aloft by Thursday mid day with
moisture seepage accompanying. Have hedged a bit closer to
climatology, banking on increasing coverage over the central
mountain chain, and perhaps into the Rio Grande valley Thursday

By Friday, high pressure could return closer to NM, but in a weakened
and ill-defined state. The GFS gradually spreads more coverage of
storms into central and western NM while the European focuses on the
deeper subtropical moisture in central to southern AZ and only far
southwestern NM. Friday and into Saturday and Sunday, the GFS
continues to boast a westerly wave crossing the central Rockies and
into the plains, sending down a back door cold front toward NM. The
European remains less convincing with this scenario.




Upper high reforming and setting up over Great Plains for the next
few days, with dry mid level air wrapping around the southern
periphery and over NM Wed/Thu. This will bring a lull in afternoon
convection Wed, and still somewhat Thu before storm coverage trends
back up Friday and through the weekend. Overnight RH recoveries
remain decent, even with the drier air disruption mid-week. Vent
rates remain good east, with pockets of poor west. MixHgts remain
good as well for the rest of the week.

The upper high is currently east of the region and will remain there
until the weekend when it begins to reform over the Rockies/Great
Basin region. Tuesday will see another round of afternoon storms over
western NM. Easterly flow will send storms mainly towards the west,
with flash flooding remaining a main concern with the heavier
downpours, especially over recent burn scars. Dry mid-level air will
limit convection over NM Wed, with some models pushing west over AZ
completely. The GFS remains more optimistic, and most likely given
that sfc moisture will still be present, can expect isolated activity
with scattered potentially over the west. Temperatures over the east
trend up several degrees above normal as the high begins to elongate
back west mid-week. The NAM12 and GFS differ a bit with the movement
of the mid-level dryness Thursday, with the NAM12 going N into CO
and GFS sagging it west into AZ. The NAM12 solution would favor less
convection over the northern mtns Tuesday, with the GFS being more
generous with convective development. The forecast trends to the more
generous solution given enough monsoonal moisture at the sfc and
plenty of daytime heating still.

The dry air moves out by Friday, with a subsequent uptick in
afternoon storms through the weekend and into early next week. A
backdoor front looks to arrive sometime late Friday into Saturday,
replenishing moisture across the east. This will favor increased
afternoon storm coverage east of the ctrl mtns Saturday and Sunday.
Upper high reforms N of the region by start of next week, shutting
down deeper monsoonal flow. Daily moisture recycling will keep
afternoon storm activity going next week.





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