Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201116 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 AM MDT THU OCT 20 2016

Low level southeast flow with a period of upslope cloudiness
obscuring terrain along the east slopes of the central mt chain
mainly from KCQC area swd til around 17Z. Otherwise upper ridge
building over ern AZ and wrn NM with a few-sct cu and ci.


Cooler temperatures are expected today, but the drop in
temperatures will be short-lived. An upper level ridge will build
into the area Friday and shift eastward over the weekend.
Temperatures will quickly rebound back above normal and remain
there for the next week. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
will return on Monday and Monday night across mainly western and
central New Mexico.


The back door cold front, and the higher dewpoints associated with
it, is waffling around KABQ this morning as evident by the dewpoints
flip-flopping between the low teens and the low 30s. Nonetheless,
the back door segment of the front will continue to press westward
today. Drier air well behind the front will filter into central and
especially eastern areas this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures
still look to be cooler overall, with highs a few degrees below
normal across the eastern plains.

Upper level ridging will move over NM on Friday and temperatures
will increase accordingly. In fact, all areas will be at or above
normal. The high will slowly shift eastward on Saturday, but a
strengthening lee side trough will allow temps to continue to climb,
especially across the east. Models now show a weak back door cold
front on Sunday, though it will have little effect on temps.

Moisture still looks like it will creep northward in AZ and western
NM in advance of a weak shortwave trough on Sunday, and moreso on
Monday, with south to southwest flow aloft. The weak trough will
continue to dampen out as it shifts eastward over NM on Monday night
and early Tuesday. Nonetheless, with the flow becoming more
westerly, moisture should continue to move into NM and increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for precip appear
to now be Monday and Monday night across western and perhaps central
NM, about 12 hour sooner than what models were hinting at yesterday.
Tuesday during the daytime period now looks drier.

Quiet weather looks to return mid week as ridging re-develops.
Despite somewhat of a dip in high temps on Tues/Wed, high
temperatures will remain above normal areawide after today for the
foreseeable future.



A ridge of high pressure aloft begins to build today, and
strengthens Friday into Saturday. Today will be cooler again for
most locales, but especially the east and south central. A warming
trend expected Friday with high temperatures topping out Saturday and
Sunday. Some minor cooling forecast early next week as models
consistent with a passing disturbance increasing chances for wetting
showers and storms over the northwest third to half of the forecast
area Monday through Tuesday before drier weather returns.

Areas of fair to poor vent rates continue to dominate today and
Friday, with poor rates widespread on Friday. Highs climb to
approximately 5 to 10 degrees above average Friday as today`s low
level southeast winds transition to a more south to southwest
direction Friday.

Vent rates show some improvement Saturday with mostly good rates
forecast, in part due to a lee trough, which will increase southwest
to west winds over parts of the plains. In fact, very localized
critical conditions could develop Saturday afternoon over the
northeast and east central as highs average 15 degrees above normal.
Areal coverage pretty small so not anticipating any highlights at
this time. Only fair to poor overnight rh recoveries forecast for
the northeast and east central Friday and Saturday nights.

A weak wind shift expected in the northeast and east central Sunday
but fair to poor overnight recoveries Sunday night possible over the
RGV and central/northeast highlands.  Sunday vent rates worsen
overall with areas of poor rates showing up northwest, central and
over parts of the east central.

Chances for wetting rain increase Monday into Tuesday for the west
and central but the upper ridge returns for the middle of next week.
Vent rates improve Tuesday but crater again Wednesday.




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