Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270928
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TODAY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE SAGS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. COLDER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY FALLING BELOW AVERAGE EAST. HIGHS
REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL START A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BUT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
WET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL HANG ONTO EXISTING POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR TODAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE
STEADILY SAGS TO THE SOUTH AND MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AND PUNY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WINDY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. COLD FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT PUSHES
INTO THE STATE AND INTO THE PLAINS A LITTLE FASTER TODAY...BUT HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH NOT SO CLOSE TO RECORD
TERRITORY AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A WEAK AND BAGGY DRY TROUGH PASS
OVER THE STATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EAST...NEAR AVERAGE WEST.
THERE MAY BE A WEAK EAST WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE RGV EARLY TUESDAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY FALL INTO
FREEZING TERRITORY FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION SITES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 BUT MAJORITY OF THOSE SITES HAVE ALREADY SEEN FREEZES
EARLIER THIS MONTH SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE. THE FRONT
EXPECTED THURSDAY KEEPS LOOKING MORE VIGOROUS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. GFS ATTEMPTS TO RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ERN
NM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES...AFTER RETURNING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEGIN A SLIDE INTO BELOW
AVERAGE TERRITORY OVER THE COMING WEEKEND...DUE TO A TROUGH TRACKING
INTO THE ROCKIES. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS QUITE STINGY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE STATE...COOLING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAYS READINGS. WITH THAT SAID...ALL AREAS WILL STILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
INTO NE NM BY MID DAY...AND QUICKLY RACE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...NAMELY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT WILL START PUSHING
SOUTHWARD...AND SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND IT AS WELL. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EASTWARD. THERE
COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP VENTILATION RATES IN GOOD OR BETTER
CATEGORIES...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. FAIR TO GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THUS...VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD. AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE POOR
CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE...FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE.

A WEAK/BAGGY TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING LITTLE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THOUGH...DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE BEHIND IT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY
WILL FLIRT WITH 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN NM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.  HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP JUST
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL MUCH WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER
FRONT...SO STAY TUNED.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PULL UP SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND
PERHAPS FURTHER WEST.  MODELS THEN AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A WIND BAG. THERE WILL BE COOLER TEMPS WITH IT...
HOWEVER...SO NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH ON PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BRING A
NE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTN...THEN TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG AND E OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE CO BORDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...GUSTY W WINDS
SHOULD RETURN ALONG AND E OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  32  65  32 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  60  25  60  24 /  10   0   5   0
CUBA............................  61  31  61  30 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  65  29  66  26 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  61  29  63  27 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  67  30  66  27 /  10   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  65  34  65  32 /  10   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  35  73  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  58  24  56  23 /  10   5   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  63  37  59  37 /   5   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  64  33  59  34 /   5   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  23  57  24 /  10  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  52  22  51  22 /  20  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  56  19  54  18 /  20  10   5   5
TAOS............................  65  24  58  25 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  62  30  57  32 /  10  10   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  70  32  64  31 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  66  33  60  34 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  34  63  35 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  42  63  41 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  45  65  45 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  73  38  66  37 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  39  66  38 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  73  36  67  36 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  72  41  65  40 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  75  42  71  40 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  37  61  36 /   5   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  67  40  62  39 /   5   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  68  30  63  32 /   5   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  67  33  60  37 /   5   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  37  62  39 /  10   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  74  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  69  39  63  41 /  10   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  67  28  59  32 /  10  20   5   5
RATON...........................  71  27  61  30 /  10  20   5   5
SPRINGER........................  70  29  60  31 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  30  59  33 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  68  34  60  37 /  10  20   5   5
ROY.............................  69  33  59  36 /   5  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  75  35  64  39 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  75  36  64  39 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  35  65  39 /   5   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  77  39  63  39 /   0   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  78  41  64  40 /   0   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  43  65  40 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  85  46  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  76  42  64  41 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  71  42  61  41 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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