Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 172104
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
204 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A rush of wind, blast of cold air and a burst of northern mountain
snow expected through tonight, then dry and relatively quiet weather
through next week.

High pressure to our south will shift westward this weekend, but will
remain the dominate weather player through next week. There will be
a short wave trough swinging across NM tonight, delivering wind and
much colder air, as well as some rain and mountain snow across the
north. Northwest flow aloft this weekend will weaken. A short wave
trough will zip through the state Tuesday but with no moisture. A
high pressure ridge will increase to our west, providing dry and
pleasant weather for the rest of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some excitement in the weather through the next 18 hours or so as an
upper level disturbance, centered over northeast NV, races southeast
across NM tonight, along with a surface cold front. Rain and mountain
snow, strong and gusty winds and a big drop in temperatures will be
the result tonight. Accumulating snow will be limited to the higher
northern mountain terrain, with a few inches possible. The best
chances will be over the San Juan Mountains, where we will issue a
winter weather advisory for 3 to 6 inches of snow above 8500 feet. We
will extend the high wind warnings for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
Central and Northeast Highlands, Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa and Union
County through the night. We will extend the wind advisories through
the night in the Chuska and Sandia/Manzano Mountains. Occasional
strong and gusty winds will be felt elsewhere, with brief advisory
levels speeds likely reached in many areas, not long enough for any
headlines. Temperatures will plummet behind the cold frontal passage,
dropping 20 to 30 degrees lower than last night over the north and
west.

500mb heights will rebound Saturday behind the trough. Sunshine and
less wind will be the rule, but the afternoon will be chilly. Highs
will be below normal, the first time in a week or more in most areas.

The coldest night of the fall so far will blanket the forecast area
Saturday night, finally dropping temperatures below freezing in the
Albuquerque northeast heights and foothills, and around Roswell.
The second half of the weekend will be dry with a cold start but
pleasantly cool afternoon. A very weak short wave trough passing
overhead will only deposit some high clouds over the north.

Next week will bring about the return of what we have experienced
lately, namely dry and mild weather. Monday will be mild with above
normal highs, and moderate breezes over the central mountains into
the east. A short wave trough will zip through the state Tuesday
with little fanfare, only managing to cool the east down close to
normal for highs on Tuesday. A strong ridge of high pressure will
develop to our west later next with with a light north to south flow
aloft over NM. Lots of sunshine, mild late November high temperatures
and not much wind will be the weather story for the second half of
the week, including Thanksgiving!

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread windy conditions are in place today across NM ahead of an
approaching upper level storm system over the Great Basin. Very dry
air with record warm temperatures over east central NM has led to
critical fire weather conditions within the entire Red Flag area.

Overall no changes were advertised from guidance over the next seven
days. Strong west winds will transition to northwest and north winds
tonight as a strong cold front moves through NM. The west slopes of
the northern mts will have the best chance for some light snowfall
accumulations through tonight, where roughly 2-5" is possible above
9,000`. High temps will trend 15 to 30 degrees colder Saturday
behind the front. Vent rates will deteriorate to poor over central
and western NM with lingering good values over the east.

The coldest temps of the fall season are in store for Sunday morning
with a widespread solid hard freeze expected for areas that have not
frozen yet. Exceptionally dry air will accompany this airmass with
subzero dewpoints in the high terrain. Sunday temps will moderate
closer to normal with light winds and poor vent rates. Slightly
stronger northwest flow Monday will allow rates to improve into the
good category over more areas. Temps will warm above normal again
Monday.

A back door frontal boundary will slide into eastern NM Tuesday and
cool temps closer to normal. Vent rates will remain good most areas
with stronger flow aloft and near the surface. Unseasonably strong
high pressure will then develop over the southwest U.S. Wednesday
through the end of the week with widespread poor ventilation, light
winds, and above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The focus for impacts today will be strong westerly winds ahead of a
cold front approaching from the northern Rockies. Strongest winds
are expected between 19Z and 03Z, particularly over the high terrain
and northeastern NM where gusts near 50 kts are likely. Aviation
weather warning (AWW) gusts to 35 kts are possible at KABQ however
confidence is low with marginal speeds on the latest MOS guidance. A
brief downtick in wind is expected aft 03Z most terminals while
slowly veering toward the W/NW. The next item will be a sharp wind
shift to the N/NW as a cold front moves through NM. A brief but
potent blast of wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts is likely as the front
passes from NW to SE. AWW wind gusts appear more possible during this
period at KABQ from 07Z to 10Z. Meanwhile, snow over the northern
high terrain will create mt top obscurations with low cigs and vsbys.
Winds will taper off for central and western NM after the frontal
passage but remain elevated over eastern NM behind the back door
portion of the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  23  49  15  54 /  30   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  46   8  54 /  50   5   0   0
Cuba............................  24  46  18  53 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  17  53   6  60 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  15  51   4  58 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  19  53   6  59 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  32  54  13  60 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  67  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  18  43  12  49 /  60  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  33  49  26  55 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  30  48  21  54 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  27  44  19  50 /  30   0   0   0
Red River.......................  22  38  18  45 /  40   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  18  44   1  50 /  30   0   0   0
Taos............................  21  49   9  54 /  30   0   0   0
Mora............................  28  49  16  56 /  20   0   0   0
Espanola........................  33  53  19  59 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  32  47  24  51 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  30  49  18  55 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  35  54  29  58 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  36  55  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  34  57  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  36  56  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  57  17  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  36  55  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  38  61  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  27  49  19  53 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  30  52  15  55 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  28  53  13  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  29  50  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  55  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  40  61  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  57  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  44  19  57 /  20  10   0   0
Raton...........................  29  48  16  58 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  33  50  14  60 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  31  48  19  58 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  33  48  25  58 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  33  48  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  39  54  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  40  55  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  42  54  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  43  57  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  54  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  46  61  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  56  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  53  24  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ108.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ505-522-533-534.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ528-531-532.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
 NMZ513>515-523-527-529-530.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST Saturday
for the following zones... NMZ510.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ502-521.

&&

$$

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