Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEAST BOUND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO EL PASO
COMBINING WITH QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO BREAK OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH COVERAGE
REMAINING NEAR SRR AND ROW...AND OCCASIONAL STRIKES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. APPROACHING WEST
COAST SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 18Z
MONDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUPPORTING
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE
PULLED UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BE CIRCULATED NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NM THROUGH NOON MONDAY...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AROUND 06Z AND BEYOND. TAFS CARRYING VCSH WEATHER GROUP
DURING PERIOD OF GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS FALLING BELOW MT TOP LEVEL FOR
OBSCURATION MAINLY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 APPROACHING 06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...914 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND ISOLATED THUNDER COVERAGE NORTHWARD ACROSS
INTERSTATE 40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. FRESH PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS HEADED FOR THE
WIRE SHORTLY.

SHY

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SEEP INTO THE GILA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TODAY...AND WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY IN AGREEMENT...FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH COULD BE SLOWER
MOVING...DELAYING A DRYING TREND FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
BELOW AVERAGE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MONDAY...THEN WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING OCCURS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS ON TRACK. 12Z EPZ SOUNDING OBSERVED AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND CONVECTION ALREADY MORE ACTIVE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO THAN ON SATURDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE ANTICIPATED SURGE OF
MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE INCREASED...AND TWEAKED POP GRIDS TOWARD THE GUIDANCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION INTO AND OVER NEW MEXICO...SO POPS NOW
HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY. AT SOME POINT...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE
SUPPRESSED...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK...THIS WOULD BE SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY OR BY THURSDAY...BASED ON THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER
ECMWF. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVERHEAD...SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH POPS TAPERING OFF. THE
FORECAST SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ALSO MEANS A FRONT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE DELAYED AS
WELL...POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONDAY...WITH HIGHS FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER AND
DRIER REGIME IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY HAS BEEN INACTIVE THUS FAR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST NOW STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR
ALOFT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL SHIFT
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS CHANNELED
NORTHWARD INTO NM. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. ITS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NM AND A SLOW-APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO DRAW IN MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ABRUPT UPTICK IN STORMS AND WETTING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF WARM-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
A FEW DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
DROPPING THINGS BACK JUST BELOW NORMAL...MOSTLY IN THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW INDUCING SOME BREEZINESS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF NM BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...HOWEVER THE EXACT OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAS SEVERAL UNKNOWNS DUE TO INTER-MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AND A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN SOLUTIONS RUN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND TRANSIENT LOW. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THIS
FEATURE WOULD ALLOW ANY REMNANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE SCOURED
OUT OF NM FROM THE WEST...BUT THE SLOWER TRENDING SOLUTIONS OF LATE
MAY SUGGEST A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS MOISTURE...YET
COMPLICATED BY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. REGARDLESS...NO STRONG
SURFACE/20FT WINDS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST YET...AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SHOULD AVOID THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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