Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290528 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NM HAS DIMINISHED...THOUGH
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ANY TAF
OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT. KLVS WILL HAVE THE
LONGEST IMPACTS...WHILE KTCC/KROW IMPACTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. NEXT LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING OVER NM ON
MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM...AS EARLY AS 18Z. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OR NE AT 20 TO 35KT.
SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AOA 50KT AND LARGE HAIL IN
EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTN/EVE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...929 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT DOWNWARD WITH CURRENT
ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND MOVING
SMARTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. LATEST HRRR INDICATING NOT MUCH
CONVECTION IF ANY WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DID LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OVERNIGHT AS SOME EAST
SLOPES SITES ALREADY REPORTING LOW CLOUDS. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY
SENT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALSO IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...WITH A CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...TOO. A COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
COOLER DAY MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF NM WILL STEER
THE POLAR JET STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET CORE WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
WITH 500 MB WINDS NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT...EVEN AVERAGE
LOOKING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE CRITERIA
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY.

FARMINGTON ALREADY RECEIVED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN THEY RECEIVED IN JUNE...JULY AND
AUGUST COMBINED. WPC QPF PROGS DEPICT ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THE
REGION. SPOTTIER AND GENERALLY LIGHTER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE AZ
BORDER. DUE TO THE DRENCHING ALREADY RECEIVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW AND W CENTRAL
PLATEAUS...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE FAR SE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS
DUE TO A MOIST RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIP AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE TROUGH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BARRELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN AFTER
A BRIEF RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AFTER MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NOT SEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN BOTH HUMIDITY AND
WIND LEVELS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

RELATIVELY MOIST/WET PERIOD LINGERS THROUGH MON...ENDING BY OR
DURING THE AFTN FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM...AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT AND MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGH THERE BUT NOT TILL THE EVE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS TONIGHT TO BE
NW AND N CENTRAL NM...THOUGH THEY WILL BE SPOTTY. BEST CHANCES MON
ACROSS NE AND N CENTRAL NM...EXTENDING TO SOME DEGREE INTO CENTRAL
AND E CENTRAL NM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP AS WELL...LAL
REACHING A 5 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND AT LEAST
4 IN NE NM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
MOST AREAS THROUGH MON NIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS LOWERING SOME W
CENTRAL AND NW NM MON NIGHT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING MOSTLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES.

THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND
IT ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN QUICKLY TUE...
BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A
MODEST TO MODERATE DIP ON TUESDAY...BUT BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GENERALLY BOUNCE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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