Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190545 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Showers and storms are diminishing over the SW mtns tonight with
remnant cloud cover that is expected to clear out through the early
morning hours. VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF cycle
with another round of isolated storms Monday afternoon off the higher
terrain of the central mtn chain and Gila mtns. Prevailing winds
will be light and moderate, with erratic and gusty conditions
possible under or near any showers or storms Monday afternoon/evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION...548 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are sluggishly taking shape over
the high terrain surrounding the continental divide of western New
Mexico and the far northern mountains early this evening. These
storms have been producing more wind than downpours, but activity
should steadily diminish after sunset. A similar weather regime will
persist into Monday with isolated showers and thunderstorms taking
shape over the high terrain in the afternoon. Prevailing breezes will
be light to moderate, but erratic and gusty conditions will be
possible in/near any showers or storms.



.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017...

The Four Corners high currently located over southern Nevada will
shift eastward during the next couple of days. Moist southeast winds
at the surface will keep isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms possible through Tuesday, mainly mountains and east.
Temperatures will warm to near record or record levels Tuesday,
continuing through the work week. A strong backdoor cold front is
expected to bring relief to the hot conditions Friday night or
Saturday. Low level moisture will increase behind this front as well,
brining chances for showers and thunderstorms next weekend.


Higher dewpoints all around today as a backdoor cold front brought
low level Gulf moisture to the east and central and north winds
brought Pacific moisture into far western areas this morning.
Unfortunately, the good lapse rates across wrn NM do not coincide
with the best low level moisture which is across ern NM. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms still possible mainly northern and western
mountains but they`ll be on the dry side. Low level sely flow
continues overnight, becoming more ely on Monday. This low level Gulf
moisture transport will keep isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms possible, mainly over the southwest mountains and
central mountain chain, including the Jemez Monday.

Similar condtions are expected Tuesday. Main change Tuesday will be
the increased heat across western and northwestern areas as 700mb
temps climb to near 22C in response to the Four Corners high being
forced upright and farther east to the NM/AZ line. The latest heat
risk indices suggesting that heat advisories may be necessary for the
mid RGV Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures reach the lower
100s in the ABQ metro both days. Much of eastern NM will be under the
heat gun Wednesday and Thursday as well with temperatures soaring to
between 105-112 degrees, so heat advisories likely there both days.

GFS is now on board with the ECMWF for Friday and beyond. An
unseasonably deep upper level clipper trough moving south and sewd
out of Canada and into the Northern Plains is forecast to send a
potent backdoor cold front into NM Friday night or Saturday. At the
same time, the upper level cool in nwly flow aloft as the Four
Corners high gets forced swwd to near the NM bootheel. This combo has
the potential to set the stage for a much cooler and wetter period
next weekend.




The effects of the cooler and more humid air mass will be short
lived as a warming and drying trend commences Monday. The upper
ridge will expand eastward and strengthen over New Mexico this week,
with the high center of circulation shifting over western New Mexico
and eastern Arizona.

So far this afternoon, cumulus were most numerous over the western
mountains. The central mountain chain has been slow to destabilize,
but it appears some cumulus are beginning to sprout at this time. A
few mainly dry showers or storms with gusty winds are still possible
later this afternoon and early evening as indicated by the HRRR and
RAP over the west central/southwest mountains and along the central
mt chain, particularly the Sangre de Cristo mts. Movement would be
generally to the southeast or south if any cells do develop.

Overnight humidity recoveries will be good to excellent for most
areas tonight, although some locales over the far west may be an
exception. Despite a nightly slosh of low level moisture into
eastern New Mexico and possibly to the RGV, daytime humidities will
gradually return to single digit values over nearly all of the
forecast area by midweek as high temperatures heat up. At the same
time, overnight humidity recoveries worsen. Temperatures by midweek
will likely reach near or record values for many locales. Haines of
6 becomes widespread by Wednesday and persists through Friday, and
areas of Super Haines forecast west and central Thursday and Friday.

Some moisture will remain trapped under the upper ridge so isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoons and early
evenings over the higher terrain through Wednesday before
diminishing Thursday. Some or a majority of those storms will likely
be drier with strong and gusty winds. In addition, some of the cells
may drift off the higher terrain and into the highlands and valleys
late in the afternoons and early evenings.

Vent rates, while generally good Monday and Tuesday, improve to
excellent overall Wednesday and Thursday as mixing heights rise

Some relief from the heat may come at the end of this week. The
upper high center slips back to the south over Old Mexico, allowing
a moist front to push into the eastern plains and westward through
the RGV, similar to what was experienced last night/early this




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