Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 122319 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
519 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

West to northwest flow alf with weak sfc low/trof over the ern
plains. Sct showers and tstms will continue to develop aft 00Z and
move to the se. Brief mt obscurations in MVFR cigs/vsbys, gusty
winds and small hail are possible with this activity. Lcl MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys in br to develop along the east slopes of the central mt
chain and over the ern plains aft 06Z and perist thru 13/15Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017...
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return each
afternoon and evening through Monday with Sunday featuring an uptick
in thunderstorm coverage compared to today. Some storms across the
northeast may turn severe Sunday afternoon and evening. Much drier
air will spread over the state from the west Tuesday through Thursday
causing storms to become more isolated. A back door cold front should
produce an uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the east Friday


In the wake of yesterday`s disturbance, much drier air aloft moved
over central and western parts of the forecast area. This has limited
convection a fair amount today, but low levels are moist enough that
showers and storms should be able to increase in coverage to
scattered across southern and eastern areas by this evening.

A disturbance crossing CO and northern NM will cause scattered
showers and storms to cover more of the forecast area on Sunday
afternoon and evening. Storms will probably become numerous by late
in the day across SW and NE areas, especially as a back door cold
front arrives in the NE. The front doesn`t look to have a lot of
moisture with it, and drier air will begin to filter in from the
west again on Monday, so it should be a little less convectively
active than Sunday.

Tuesday through Thursday, an upper level trough deepening on the
west coast funnels much drier air over NM. After temperatures near
and below normal Sunday and Monday, highs should climb closer to
normal by Wednesday and Thursday. A back door cold front will sag
into the northeast Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of
showers and storms there.

Another back door cool front will dive further into the plains
Thursday night, increasing low level moisture enough to spread a
chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of the plains on



A moist low level airmass today will work against a deep mid and
upper level dry airmass in place over Arizona and western New
Mexico. Recycling of low level moisture will still allow for showers
and storms to develop around the higher terrain and move east to
southeast thru eastern NM overnight. Excellent humidity recoveries
are likely again tonight in most areas along with some patchy fog
and low ceilings across the eastern plains.

A weak upper level disturbance drifting north from Mexico will set
the stage for a much more active day Sunday with deeper moisture and
forcing in place across NM. Locally heavy rainfall is expected along
and east of the Cont Divide, with possible flash flooding near steep
terrain and areas of eastern NM that are saturated. More widespread
excellent recoveries on tap for Sunday night, then a drying trend
develops from west to east Monday.

A dry, upper level trough will approach the Four Corners region on
Monday then become stationary over the central Rockies through at
least Wednesday. A deep-layer dry intrusion within the base of this
trough will aid mixing of significantly drier air to the surface
along and west of the central mt chain. Min humidity values will
fall into the teens Tuesday through Thursday afternoons, with at
least good recoveries expected each night. Any storms will likely
focus over the southeastern half of NM during this period. Vent
rates will improve to excellent all areas, with even some breezy
conditions possible by late afternoon over western NM. High temps
will trend warmer with readings closer to normal for mid August.

Extended model guidance is hinting that a return to more typical
August weather is possible by Friday as an upper high redevelops
over TX. Meanwhile, a large easterly wave with abundant moisture is
shown to surge north into New Mexico and/or Arizona from northern
Mexico. This will increase the chances once again for showers and
storms with locally heavy rainfall, trend temps below normal, and
deteriorate ventilation all areas.





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