Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 110919
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY WESTERN NEW MEXICO AGAIN SATURDAY. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAKING IT ONTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. SEVERAL STRONG AND MOIST COLD FRONTS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE STARTING MONDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING NOCTURNAL ROUND OF CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST MTS...GIVING A GLIMPSE AT STEERING
FLOW FOR LATER TODAY. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SQUEEZE PLAY
WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS WESTERN NM AS A DRY INTRUSION
SHIFTS WEST FROM THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER WAVE RIDES NORTH THROUGH
ARIZONA. BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SPC SSEO SHOWS BULLSEYE FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE TODAY WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOWS. 08Z CIRA PWAT PRODUCT SHOWS VALUES NEAR 1.1 ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS GENERALLY RIGHT NEAR CLIMO. BASED ON SLOW STEERING
FLOWS...DEEP MOISTURE...AND PLUME STRETCHING WILL HOIST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GILA ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE NW HIGHLANDS AND JEMEZ MTS TODAY.

GUIDANCE INDICATES SATURDAY MAY BE A REPEAT SCENARIO BUT WITH THE
FOCUS MORE INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THE GILA REGION.
FARTHER EAST...THE DRY INTRUSION ALOFT WILL LIKELY SHUT DOWN ANY
SHOT FOR CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY AND MAKE FOR SOME HOT
MID JULY TEMPS. THE WELL DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL PROGS FROM YESTERDAY SO ITS INFLUENCE
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST CHANGES OCCURRED MOSTLY FOR THE SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTHEAST NM. THIS IS
ABOUT 12-18 HOURS SOONER THAN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SO A MAJOR UPTICK
WILL OCCUR FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHWEST ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR JULY WILL INVADE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HELP FORCE A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
MONDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BACK NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW
FOR NW FLOW TO DELIVER DAILY UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE. THESE UPPER
VORTS WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A LOCALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD AND VERY WET PATTERN SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN AREAWIDE NEXT WEEK.

THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY
AND CONTINUE ARCING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RING OF
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THIS WAVE SHOULD HAVE A DRYING
EFFECT ON THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TODAY...THEN
ALSO ACROSS S CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY. A MOISTER SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ON SUNDAY
RETURNING GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE TO S CENTRAL AREAS AND
POSSIBLY TO PARTS OF THE SE PLAINS.  ELSEWHERE SUNDAY...MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATELY MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE NE LATE SATURDAY WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER. THIS WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE AND WETNESS SUNDAY WITH
PWATS CLIMBING BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN UNSEASONABLY BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND
STRONGER AND WETTER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS INTO NM FROM THE NE MONDAY
AND LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...PERTURBATIONS CROSSING
IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NM. A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO APPROACH SLOWLY
FROM THE NNW UNDER PERSISTENT WET EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...READINGS
SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE THROUGH MID WEEK IF THE
FRONTS ARRIVES AS SCHEDULED.  POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT MOST PLACES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
VENTILATION TUMBLES IN THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LAST OF THE DAYS CONVECTION ENDING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS ENDING AROUND 09Z IN MOST SPOTS. RIDGE
EXPANDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL REPLAY ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. STORMS INITIATING BY 18Z OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON..WITH STORMS
CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL MTS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH 03Z WITH MOST
ACTIVITY ENDED BY 06Z. TAFS WRITTEN WITH LEADING VCSH GROUP INTO
MORE CERTAIN VCTS GROUP FOR PERIOD OF MAXIMUM THUNDERSTORM
LIKELIHOOD...WITH REDUCED STORM COVERAGE AND CERTAINTY IN TRAILING
VCSH GROUP. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOW CLOUD COVERAGE OUT OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ROW TAF CARRYING LATE SCT015
LAYER AS PLACEHOLDER FOR BROADER LOW CLOUD AND POSSIBLE LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT. SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  64  93  64 /  20  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  87  49  88  48 /  30  20  30  30
CUBA............................  85  55  85  54 /  50  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  88  57  89  57 /  20  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  80  54  80  53 /  40  30  40  30
GRANTS..........................  85  54  85  54 /  40  40  40  30
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  79  55 /  50  40  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  90  56  86  55 /  30  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  81  47  81  45 /  50  40  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  61  83  61 /  40  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  81  56  78  57 /  50  60  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  53  80  52 /  50  40  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  71  46 /  70  50  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  40  76  37 /  60  40  60  60
TAOS............................  85  50  83  50 /  30  40  40  40
MORA............................  81  52  78  52 /  50  40  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  88  60  88  60 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  82  60  80  61 /  40  40  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  59  87  60 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  66  87  67 /  30  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  68  89  69 /  30  50  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  64  91  65 /  30  50  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  67  92  69 /  30  50  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  63  92  64 /  30  50  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  94  68  92  68 /  30  50  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  92  70 /  30  40  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  61  85  62 /  50  50  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  88  61  86  61 /  50  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  55  83  55 /  30  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  57  82  58 /  30  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  86  60  83  62 /  30  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  84  64 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  83  53  80  55 /  30  20  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  84  59  80  60 /  40  20  50  50
RATON...........................  86  59  84  59 /  20  20  30  40
SPRINGER........................  90  59  87  60 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  55  82  55 /  30  30  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  93  65  90  66 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  87  60  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  93  67  92  69 /   5  10   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  64  89  66 /  10  10   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  66  93  69 /   5   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  89  60  87  61 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  91  62  89  64 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  93  65  91  67 /   5   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  65  92  67 /   5   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  87  60  85  63 /  10  10   5  10
ELK.............................  81  57  80  59 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511.

&&

$$





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