Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 020542 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVR SRN CA
CONTINUES TO STREAM MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NWRN
QUARTER OF NM. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO INCREASING OVER SRN NM
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK AND TAPS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO. BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARILY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING WWD AND THROUGH
GLORIETA PASS AND TIJERAS CANYON. MODERATE EAST/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT BOTH KSAF AND KABQ THROUGH MID MORNING. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EWD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER AROUND MID
MORNING MONDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...716 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO ADD/EXPAND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
ACROSS THE EAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO ADD
A FEW ZONES ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER LATER.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARM AIR OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...LEADING TO RISING SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER IN THE PLAINS...COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
PECOS...WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST CROSSES NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER...LEADING TO INCREASING SNOWFALL
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
MONDAY WILL BECOME GUSTY WESTERLY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY DRIER BUT
MUCH COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE WARMING TODAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TO
THE WEST OF SOCAL. COLDER AIR HAS REMAINED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT
HAS MODIFIED TODAY...DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAPULIN TO NEAR SANTA ROSA AND
FORT SUMNER. THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRAW THE
BOUNDARY WESTWARD AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV AND SANTA FE METRO TONIGHT
WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WARM AS THEY MIGRATE
NORTHWARD...SO DECIDED TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL BUT
THE SAN JUAN MTS...WHERE SNOW COULD CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ABOVE
8500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME
OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS
HOWEVER...INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND UPPER GILA.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY COULD REACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
LOCALIZED AREAS...WILL LEAVE CONSIDERATION OF ANY WIND ADVISORIES TO
SUCCEEDING SHIFTS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE JUST AS
STRONG...AND MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY/S 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...SO A BREAK FROM
SNOW GRIDS IS WELCOME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH A FEW MORE DISTURBANCES ALOFT UPSTREAM
STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS OVER NM...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DID SPIKE UP TO NEAR AVERAGE TODAY IN SOME CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL ZONES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER CA. DEWPOINTS ALSO ROSE
SUBSTANTIALLY...SO THIS HAS KEPT RH ELEVATED...OFFSETTING THE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN THE EAST A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS HAS STUNTED
THE WARMING...AND THE EAST WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF AVERAGE AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. THESE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL HOLD INTO MONDAY BEFORE READINGS DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF
WEST CENTRAL NM WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FLOW WILL BE BRISK INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH NM...SHIFTING DIRECTION
WESTERLY WITH GUSTY SPEEDS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EASTERN TIER OF NM MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE
MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
TO KEEP VENTILATION RATES FAIR TO HIGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NM TODAY...AND A BRIEF DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STILL...SOME PERIODIC
SNOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NAMELY THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS
RANGE NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
NM LATE MONDAY AS PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHES...SPREADING MORE INTO
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT. INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR LARGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ515-521>524-526>529-531>533-539.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ511>515.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$

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