Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 152354 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Ely wave ovr west TX will set the stage for an active evening across
central and northern NM. Thunderstorm outflows from the north will
collide with outflows from the south to generate evening thunderstorms
at most terminals through 16/06Z. Storm motion will be slow and highly
variable. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys with combined wind and rain/small
hail will result from the stronger storms. Convection will favor
northern and western areas of the state Sunday afternoon and evening.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain on tap for the next
several days. Storm coverage should increase on Sunday and Monday
compared to today, especially over northern and western New Mexico.
Storm motion will remain quite slow, which will increase the
potential for heavy rains. A more robust monsoon plume should develop
over Arizona and far western New Mexico by mid week. Thanks to the
cloud cover and precipitation, high temperatures should be near to
just below average for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms started early today over the high terrain,
but have not gained much ground since then. An area of dry
air/subsidence is in place over central and east central NM in
associated with the easterly wave. This will keep showers and
thunderstorms largely at bay for the rest of the afternoon in these
areas. However, the HRRR has been consistently suggesting that
thunderstorms now developing in southeast CO will become more
organized as drop into NE NM this evening as they move around a weak
mid level low. Once these storms encounter the drier air and
subsidence associated with the easterly wave, they will likely
dissipate.

Sunday should be more active, though much of the east central and
southeast plains will be left out. Storm motion will continue to be
slow, which may result in locally heavy rains.

On Monday, the upper high that is currently centered over southern
NV will elongate eastward from NV to OK. Potentially multiple high
centers will again make storm motion slow and variable. By Tuesday,
the main high center will develop over Oklahoma. The question will
be how far westward will the high be elongated and how strong will
it be. Seems like the GFS and ECMWF are slowly coming toward a
single solution which is that the high will probably be strong
enough to steer the best monsoonal moisture into AZ and far western
NM on Tuesday, and likely on Wednesday as well. Started to trend
down PoPs across the central NM mountains both days, but if the
trend continues, PoPs will need to be adjusted down further. There`s
potential by the end of the week that the high will weaken enough
for storm coverage to begin increasing again. By early the following
week, both the GFS and ECMWF are showing the moisture plume square
over NM. Stay tuned.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather through next weekend. Still questions though as to
where the best plume of moisture sets up next week, but it`s looking
like western NM could take top honors.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed earlier today, both over
the mountains and even in parts of the eastern plains. Should be an
active evening with some storms lasting past midnight. The slow
movement of the storms could result in minor flooding of roads and
low lying areas.

The easterly wave to the south and low pressure center in CO will
head in opposite directions, both of them slowly moving away from NM
tonight and Sunday. But the high pressure anchored near Las Vegas,
NV will weaken some and PW values will come up a little, allowing
for another good round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. The slow
moving storms could generate heavy rain producing localized flash
flooding.

The Las Vegas high pressure area will weaken a little more early
next week while the high over the central plains builds. This will
set up a favorable southeast to northwest flow of moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico, across TX and into Mexico before reaching us. The
primary plume looks like it will set up across western NM, with the
ECMWF grudgingly giving up on the farther east plume of moisture. A
couple of inverted troughs/easterly waves could add to the mix later
next week and next weekend. This all adds up to widespread
convection next week into the weekend, primarily across the western
half of the state.

Moderate or lower Haines values are forecast through next week.
Generally fair or better vent rates, except for patches of poor
rates over western and northern areas. Nighttime RH recoveries will
be good to excellent.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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