Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161831 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
MOST LOCATIONS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES
TO TRANSPORT PLENTY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN NM
THIS MORNING WITH NO REAL BREAK IN SIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1035 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF VFR CIGS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUP AND MVFR AT
KFMN...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT
KFMN AS WELL. MVFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KAEG...KABQ AND KSAF
BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
FAIRLY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH KLVS AND KTCC REMAINING VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KROW WHERE MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO
IS FOR A MVFR DECK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL. THEN A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHOWERS MAY EVEN SPREAD TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
SOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ITS TOO SOON TO TELL HOW MUCH
OF AN IMPACT IT MAY HAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING THIS MORNING ON THE NEXT SET OF STORM
SYSTEMS THAT MAY...OR MAY NOT...IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT SLIDES ACROSS NM ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO ARRIVE FASTER THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN NM WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE LOW...AROUND 6000FT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALONE...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT MORE
POTENTIAL. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS NOT
LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT ONCE DID. MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE ENERGY THAT REMAINS LOOKS TO
BE FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURS...THERE PROBABLY WONT BE AS MUCH OF
A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS...PERHAPS NEEDING SOME ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH. LATER THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS SW NM...CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
SLIDING EASTWARD. OVERALL...NOT APPEARING TO BE AS BIG OF A WEATHER
MAKER ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE COMBO OF THE TWO STORMS MAY PROVIDE
SOME IMPACTS. AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME ON WEDNESDAY
AND MORESO ON THURSDAY. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER A QUIET FRIDAY...ALL EYES ARE SET ON WHAT WAS THE WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM. YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE QUITE EXCITED ABOUT ANOTHER
STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM...BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN
SUNDAY...BUT THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW
REGARDING THE WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WETTING MOISTURE EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK
OFF ON THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND HIGHER TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WHICH IMPACTED EASTERN AREAS YESTERDAY WEAKENS. EXPECT
CONTINUED HIGHER CIRRUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS CENTERED OVER
THE AREA YESTERDAY WILL NUDGE FURTHER EAST TODAY. VENT RATES
SHOULD RISE A LITTLE BIT IN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST
BUT REMAIN POOR ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AREAS.

SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAVE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SO DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE
AND APPEAR TO BE UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
WIND GRADIENT ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SO LOOKING AT A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VENTILATION RATES. SOME BREEZIER SURFACE
WINDS ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR WETTING MOISTURE WOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH DRAG SOME WETTING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. EITHER
WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS THURSDAY. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD LOWER
SOME BUT STILL LOOKING AT QUITE A FEW FAIR/GOOD RATINGS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS LOWERING
VENTILATION RATES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING MORE POOR AREAS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD LOWER BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION.

THE WEATHER SHOULD TURN UNSETTLED AGAIN LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING
OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WETTING MOISTURE THE PAST 24 HRS SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT SHAKY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SHOWS NO
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS SCANT RESULTS. SORT OF HARD TO
BELIEVE THE MODELS HAVE BACKED THIS FAR OFF THE WEEKEND EVENT SO
WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY FOR A CHANGE BACK TO A WETTER SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY POOR TO FAIR READINGS ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT THIS WILL CHANGE SOME.

A DRIER FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A BLOCKING
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SUSPECT THIS PATTERN
WILL ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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