Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 220542 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Nw flow aloft with embedded disturbances and return flow of low level
moisture over the eastern plains. Terrain obscured in areas MVFR to
IFR cigs/vsbys in br/shra/tsra from the central mt chain ewd to the
TX border. Tstms to become more numerous aft 18Z, with a few cells
becoming severe with large hail and wnd gusts to 50kt. Low clds may
ooze into the KSAF vcnty 10-15Z before drier nw flow, which will
dominate the wrn half of NM, mixes out the shallow moisture.


.PREV DISCUSSION...249 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017...
Gulf moisture invaded the Eastern Plains last night and will fuel a
few storms this afternoon and overnight, some of which may become
strong to severe. Warming will continue Monday across western New
Mexico, but a weak backdoor cold front across the Eastern Plains will
keep temperatures below normal there. More storms are forecast
Monday afternoon across the Eastern Plains, some of which may become
severe. An additional round of storms is forecast across the east
Monday night along a stronger backdoor cold front, which is forecast
to push into the Rio Grande Valley and create moderate east
canyon/gap winds. Temperatures will take a dip Tuesday behind the
front and be well below normal across the Eastern Plains. A renewed
warming and drying trend will begin Wednesday and continue through
the remainder of the work week with temperatures reaching above
normal areawide by Thursday. Windy conditions are forecast Thursday
and Friday across much of the area.


The warming trend continues this afternoon, with observed 24hr change
values generally around +10 degrees at 2PM. That said, temperatures
are still below normal. Gulf moisture invaded the Eastern Plains
overnight into today and is already fueling a round of showers and
storms that are on the uptrend along and east of a sharpening
dryline across the plains/highlands. Latest NAM12 is forecasting
sbCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg and LIs of -5 to -7C with 0-6km Bulk
Shear of 35-45kts in an area from the South Central Mountains north
and east to Union County late this afternoon. While surface based
instability is somewhat limited, bulk shear values are sufficient for
supporting rotating storms and perhaps a supercell or two further
east near the Texas border where surface dewpoint temps are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. The severe threat today is somewhat marginal,
but that trends up Monday with improved surface based instability
and slightly higher 0-6km Bulk Shear. A weak backdoor front will
provide the forcing Monday afternoon, with the best shot for severe
storms across the East Central and Southeast Plains.

A stronger backdoor front will follow down Monday night and progress
through the Central Mountain Chain early Tuesday morning, creating
moderate east canyon/gap winds. The front may spark an additional
round of storms across the east late Monday night as well. Cold air
advection behind the front will limit convective potential Tuesday
afternoon and will send daytime temperatures well below normal across
the Eastern Plains. Given upslope low level flow, a few storms are
possible late Tuesday moving off of the Northern Mountains with moderate
northwest flow aloft and favorable veering wind profiles. However, these
storms will be limited due to a cooler airmass with lower surface
dewpoint temperatures as mentioned above.

A new warming/drying trend will begin Wednesday as a ridge of high
pressure moves over the Southern Rockies and New Mexico. Windy
conditions are forecast Thu/Fri, with the westerlies punching in
behind the departing ridge axis. Thursday looks to be the warmest day
this forecast cycle, with daytime temperatures reaching above normal
areawide. Roswell will challenge 100 degrees for the first time this
calendar year on Thursday, thanks in part to downslope winds. Winds
will decrease over the weekend with weakening flow aloft. A backdoor
front will bring low level moisture and chances for storms back to
northeast and east central portions of New Mexico next weekend, with
decent agreement from the 12z GFS and ECMWF solutions.



Northwest flow aloft coupled with a surge of low level Gulf moisture
over the eastern plains has combined to initiate convection over
portions of western San Miguel into western Guadalupe county this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
will persist through the evening hours, with a few storms capable of
becoming severe over the NE plains this evening. Frequent lightning,
large hail, and erratic gusty winds up to 50kts will be accompanied
with the stronger storms.

The S/SE flow of Gulf moisture continues Monday with another around
of afternoon showers/storms across the eastern plains. Storm
coverage will be more widespread with a greater potential for severe
storms along the TX border. A strong backdoor front slides south
across the eastern plains Tuesday, kicking out the Gulf moisture,
lowering Mixing Hgts, and dropping daytime highs 10-15F. The front
will also bring breezy to windy gap winds through the central valley
Tuesday morning.

Cold temperatures don`t last long across the eastern plains as dry
westerly flow sets up over NM Wednesday, rebounding daytime highs to
normal levels over the eastern plains. Temperatures warm well above
average over the SE plains Thursday, before a general cooling trend
sets up over NM Friday and through the weekend with temperatures
near or above average. RH recoveries will be poor across NW and
southern NM Thursday, with MinRH levels dipping to the single digits
and low teens each afternoon. Coverage of critical fire conditions
increases greatly Thursday and Friday with winds diminishing by
Saturday and thereby reducing critical fire conditions. Afterwards,
long range models show lighter westerly flow aloft allowing eastern
RH`s to recover somewhat.





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