Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 031127 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO KLVS AND KTCC THIS
MORNING...AND TO KROW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO GET AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES AS WELL AS ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER AROUND
SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE UPPER HIGH
SLIDES EAST WEDNEDSAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH ALLOWS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WEATHER AHEAD OF AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DEVELOPS
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH PVA AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS NOCTURNAL
BAND OF SHOWERS. ALL MODELS DISSIPATE THE BAND AS SFC WINDS BECOME
PREDOMINATELY NWLY TOWARD SUNRISE. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLATED FOR
LATER TODAY NOW ENTERING NE COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL HELP GET
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 06Z NAM12 ALSO DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE JEMEZ AND SW MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SEWD TO
THE SE PLAINS.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
BACK TO TRANSLATING THE RIDGE EWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER...KEEPING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF NM DURING PEAK HEATING. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SUSPECT CU BUILDUPS WILL BE THE RESULT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WWD WITH THE BEST LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. GFS...CANADIAN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
WRN NM THURSDAY. GFS NOT DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...SHIFTING
THEM NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRENDED THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WWD
LATE-DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS QUASI-
CONSENSUS GLOBAL MODEL SHIFT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE UNSEASONABLY
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS BRING THE
LOW CENTER ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
SLOT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SW ACROSS NM
FRIDAY. INCREASING SW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ACROSS
THE WEST FRIDAY. ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE BACK TO SHIFTING THE DRYLINE WWD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS
THE EAST FRIDAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE IN ON WHERE THE
LEE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL SET UP. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND...LIFTING THE
CLOSED LOW NEWD TO NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS BUT BOTH DEVELOP A SOUTHERN VORT CENTER
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE SUNDAY AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OVER THE
STATE. ALONG WITH THE WARMING COMES IMPROVING VENT RATES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
STATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF STORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INITIATING ALONG/NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE WETTING
FOOTPRINT WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL...THOUGH NOT AS SMALL AS TODAY`S
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAINES INDICES WILL BE ON THE UPTREND
AS WELL...WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF 5S BY THURSDAY.

A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND AS
WELL WITH HAINES VALUES INCREASING TO 6S ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY...THE TREND IS TOWARD
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT LIKELY FOCUS FURTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY...CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH. BY SUNDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE COOLED-OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS...SO ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AT BEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW.

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&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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